Why so many celebrities have died in 2016

http://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-36108133

by ohjeez • 10 years ago

52 55 10 years ago

yeldarb• 10 years ago

I can believe that the long-term trend is upwards but the demographic reasoning seems like it should apply on the scale of decades not years. It doesn't explain why 2016 would be worse than 2015 or 2014.

This year is likely just an outlier.

endymi0n• 10 years ago

MUCH more likely than the original shallow fluff piece: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clustering_illusion

onion2k• 10 years ago

Is that actually more likely? Sometimes statistical "streaks" are real. Given that "celebrity culture" really kicked off in the modern way we have it now in the 1960s, so the number of celebrities from that era is far higher than previous eras, and that those celebrities are now of the age when people typically die, I don't think there's anything illusory happening. It's likely to be a very real, and very easy to explain, phenomenon.

coldtea5• 10 years ago

The link you sent is about an effect that occurs with random sequences.

Neither the baby boom, nor the huge growth of the media industry (radio, TV, recorded media, etc) after the fifties are "random".

And then there's the fact that the earlier real stars we have now (as opposed to merely people famous in the past but already forgotten) are in their 70s and 80s (e.g. the 60s and 70s musicians and actors etc, all still quite relevant for modern audiences thanks to vinyl, VHS, tape, TV, CD, DVD and cable distribution, and --something previous generations lacked until recently-- instant access to all their works and news from the streaming, YouTube and the web).

This is no clustering illusion, it's the inevitable combination of life expectancy + tons of people becoming stars en masse with unprecedented global distribution at more or less the same time that sees them now in an advanced age.

shalmanese• 10 years ago

The magnitude of increase can't be explained by demographic factors. It's far more likely that this is mostly due to a statistical blip with only a minor contribution from everything else.

Aelinsaar4• 10 years ago

Prince doesn't really fit into that model, being 57, although maybe there's some modification for being a male of african-american descent? Congenital cardiovascular issues, and whatnot.

ZanyProgrammer2• 10 years ago

Are celebrities more prone to substance abuse problems?

Aelinsaar4• 10 years ago

I don't have any idea, and any guess I'd make would be... lacking. I will say one thing however, which is that they would certainly have unlimited access to substances to abuse. I'm not sure what the life expectancy of an opiate addict who could afford a lifetime's supply really is. It may be that we're starting to find out, but then, maybe not.

jtolmar• 10 years ago

Not all individual celebrity deaths have to fit the model for the phenomenon to show up, though. The proposed model just has to be one of the largest (or spikiest) components. As long as people who die for other reasons are fairly constant, they don't prevent the spike from showing up.

Aelinsaar4• 10 years ago

Of course, I was just wondering if Prince could be made to fit this model, despite seeming to deviate from it.

MicroBerto• 10 years ago

The biggest and scariest issue is that all of these celebrities are going completely unreplaced.

I am a fan of rock and heavy metal, and it is clear that rock stardom is literally dying off. The days of filling American arenas with rock concerts are quickly coming to an end, and that deeply saddens me.

Where are the twenty-something kids with attitude who will replace a band like AC/DC? Is Justin Beiber the best we could do? It's pathetic. Even a guy like Bon Jovi... Who is next in that line?? Seems like nobody. It's depressing.

This is why I'm going to as many shows for bands like Iron Maiden as possible right now. When it's over, rock and roll may truly be dead.

This is one of those moments where I realize I'm getting old. I never understood life extention and the quest for immortality. As things change, eventually they leave you behind. Find me a 90+ year old who really cares to stay. And that's how I'm going to feel when rock and roll dies.

dominotw• 10 years ago

Where are the twenty-something kids with attitude

Attitude is not relavent anymore. We are all introverts now, people have wide varieties of musical tastes and preferences .there is huge amount of experimentation going on in music due to the fact that process of creating music has become much more accessible. There are tons of awesome music being produced everywhere you just have to dig deeper.

JoBrad• 10 years ago

Exactly. I personally know 3 different people who have multiple side projects where they record, mix, and produce amazing music, from their homes. It's much harder to stand out when so many people have great music.

derefr2• 10 years ago

I almost feel like a genre has to "die" at some point in order to live (i.e. gain relevance) again. Something that stays in the public consciousness past its prime gains association with being "something your parents like" and eventually "something your grandparents like", and these are bad associations if you want something to get wildly popular.

A lot of brands that have carpet-bomb "get everyone hooked at once" marketing campaigns, like Old Spice, end up with this effect where nobody wants to use the product since it's what their dad uses, and they don't want to smell like their dad. So Old Spice has set upon the strategy of letting its marketing go quiet for a few years, and then, pretty much once per generation, running a new fleet of ads claiming that Old Spice is "not your dad's deodorant", but is in fact best associated with buff 20-something men.

The same happens in clothing (look at e.g. 80s clothing coming back into fashion just as everyone's mom had finally stopped wearing it.)

Now, I've never seen anyone cite explicit evidence of it occurring in music as well, but it would fit the general mechanism. It might be why e.g. disco has mostly stayed dead (it's survived in the public consciousness with the image of the aging, pervy "uncle", a white guy with an afro wearing white suede and rollerblades, trying to retain his relevance); while genres like jazz are perennial (getting once again associated with being "young and cosmopolitan" at each turn of the clock.)

If rock can truly die—if we can let go of "classic rock" music stations and dads sporting worn-to-dishrags "rock concert" tees—and allow the ground of the genre's image to lay fallow for a bit, we might be able to sew something new there.

sokoloff• 10 years ago

I laughed out loud the first time I heard the 2010-era Old Spice tagline:

"The original. If your grandfather hadn't worn it, you wouldn't exist."

Random word trivia: you want "sow" in the last line.

k-mcgrady3• 10 years ago

Popular genres change overtime. Right now EDM is filling arenas. That doesn't mean rock is dead and if you think it is you're not looking hard enough. There are LOTS of great rock bands - they're just playing clubs and theatres.

s4chin2• 10 years ago

Can you tell me some, because I'd like to hear them out?

hbosch2• 10 years ago

Rock and roll lives on in a much more potent, pure form in basements and bookstores and independent venues all over the world. Arena rock is dead, because it's bland, diluted, and controlled by corporations.

ArkyBeagle2• 10 years ago

It's possibly ( I won't generalize there so I disagree ) bland and diluted now, but this was not always so. The death of radio and the rise of the CD are always my usual suspects for why any sort of musical monoculture failed.

"Basements, bookstores and independent venues" dooms the practitioners to being hobbyists.

coldtea5• 10 years ago

Well, basement and bookstore rock is diluted and bland too though.

Plus, doomed to be relegated outside the mainstream culture, as a pastime for small circles of people with common taste (like polka lovers).

felipeerias• 10 years ago

The amount of music easily available today is overwhelmingly larger than it was thirty or forty years ago, and the path to fame for a new band is radically different. As a consequence, we have more music nowadays but we won't get many more of those larger-than-life stars that dominated public culture in decades past. Justin Bieber might look like a big thing, but he doesn't hold a candle to e.g. Michael Jackson in the 80s.

dcwca2• 10 years ago

Michael Jackson wasn't as unique as you think, every generation is going to have their own enduring stars that release hits over multiple decades. Indeed, Katy Perry in her early 30s has already equaled Michael Jackson in terms of number of hits in the Billboard Hot 100 and the number of #1 Singles from an album release (Bad vs. Teenage Dream). Rihanna recently tied the Beatles for second place in total time at #1 on the charts. If you think these aren't as significant as [fill in your favourite act from decades past] then you're not the right demographic.

SyneRyder• 10 years ago

It might be a case of diving deeper to find the bands that appeal to a metal fan. The Wall Street Journal (of all places!) had an article on The Weird Global Appeal Of Heavy Metal, the rise of metal in places like Indonesia, Chile, Brazil:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-weird-global-appeal-of-heavy...

And then you've got the heavy metal bands in Iran that are far more hardcore, facing jail time or execution for their music:

http://www.metalinjection.net/metal-crimes/iranian-musicians...

I've personally started listening to a lot of German bands - Rammstein helped lead me to Oomph, Unheilig, Eisbrecher, Donots and others. It feels great to love bands that have had #1 albums overseas, and yet hardly anyone has heard of them where I live.

f_allwein• 10 years ago

This is not a new sentiment, and maybe nothing to worry about:

"It is said that what is called "the spirit of an age" is something to which one cannot return. That this spirit gradually dissipates is due to the world's coming to an end. For this reason, although one would like to change today's world back to the spirit of one hundred years or more ago, it cannot be done. Thus it is important to make the best out of every generation."

― Tsunetomo Yamamoto, Hagakure: The Book of the Samurai

fiatjaf• 10 years ago

"The biggest and scariest issue is that all of these celebrities are going completely unreplaced."

Isn't this good?

oldmanjay• 10 years ago

The world doesn't leave people behind. People choose to stay focused on the past for what ever reason.

It's a very personal responsibility to feel relevant as the world changes, and it's assuredly more work than staying with the familiar.

u_me_him• 10 years ago

It is probably just a sign that your era has or is ending. It is supposed to be like that. Remember when rock first appeared there must've been people just like you complaining about their dying era and how this new Elvis guy was pathetic. Is better to adapt and discover new genres. It's fun. Just keep an open mind. To me is far worse to be stuck in the past.

agumonkey• 10 years ago

It's the thing when one goes too high, the fell is worse. I can't be objective but I believe the post ww2 era was a special spot culturally for western cultures that cannot be replicated. Less boundaries, new mediums, new industries, new market and economy, with a decent post war peace mindset (post cold war, Berlin wall). Nowadays it's a plateau and the people who made it emerge are going away and the spirit of the era with them. At one point I guess we'll have to embrace it and celebrate a new space for new forms and art, because the giants impose a reference, a scale to measure art and productions against[1]. It may unleash new growth, new qualities. Even though I wonder what really new thing can happen. Internet promises are thin (to me). Maybe large scala computation + medicine will yield something deep but somehow I fear it touches on the human species altogether (current times are caressing SF, droids, SDVehicles, automated space, biotech). It's odd.

[1] see the never ending reboot movies.

ps: although I also have a strong feeling that classics are what remains even after an era goes. Timeless ideas like shakespeare's drama you know.

PerfectElement• 10 years ago

There are only so many cool riffs you can put together before every thing starts to sound too similar. Progressive rock/metal bands explore a wider range of combinations, but they're harder to get into, so they'll never reach that level of popularity.

fsloth• 10 years ago

"I am a fan of rock and heavy metal, and it is clear that rock stardom is literally dying off. "

I would claim all you need to rock is a guitar. Good electric guitars have never been as cheap or accessible, nor have pedagogical offerings as advanced.

Exceptional ability really does not create huge artists nowadays as much as marketing does.

Outside of big bucks marketing I would claim all sorts of music is thriving.

dcwca2• 10 years ago

Guitars are expensive, you don't already have them, plus you need an amp. Then you either need to convince your friends to buy instruments and form a band (or join one), or buy a bunch of expensive recording equipment because recording drums and guitar well is difficult (and did I mention expensive?).

Kids already have computers and with a cheap USB mic can make non-rock music that is ready to be released on the radio in their bedroom for $200.

DIVx0• 10 years ago

You're clearly not looking hard enough. There is so much new music available. In my opinion we're in a sort of golden age of music. It is trivial for artists to publish new music and it's even easier for consumers to get it.

Discoverability remains a problem but even still, it's a lot easier to find new stuff than it was just 10 years ago. You still have to do some work if you want to find new examples in genres you like.

Arena filling artists are not all that different now than they were at any other time. It's pop music to one degree or another. The genres that are more popular get the bigger venus. AC/DC style hard rock enjoyed a run in the 80s but is currently 'out' but that does not mean it's dead or will die but the next Iron Maiden won't be shoveled to you via top 40 radio, you'll have to discover them and i guarantee you they're out there.

gonzo• 10 years ago

I am a fan of rock and heavy metal, and it is clear that rock stardom is literally dying off.

"Rock is Dead" -- The Who

jcoffland• 10 years ago

Lots of "unimportant" people die every day.

copperx3• 10 years ago

About 100,000 of them, to be more precise.

Your comment made me want to revisit Feynman's Letter: http://www.lettersofnote.com/2015/10/do-not-remain-nameless-...

sandebert• 10 years ago

Surprisingly often I find myself thinking about poker in everyday life (even while not playing poker, that is). And surprisingly often I find something I learned in poker is also applicable in life outside the game. In this case, the concept of variance comes to mind. Basically that values (for instance number of deaths of celebrities) are spread out. Sometimes there are more, and sometimes there are less. And that's just how it is, it doesn't automatically mean there's a trend change either way.

Lots of pages out there to read about it, here's one that might give more insight than my comment: http://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy/other/variance/

derefr2• 10 years ago

Or, from another field: it might look like some stock investors are "hot" or "cold", but that doesn't mean that investing with a currently-"hot" investor will give you any better odds. The variance in the market is high; sometimes people get a streak of wins without that being any more than luck.

(Some people, like Warren Buffet, do more; but if you know enough about their strategies to differentiate between the people getting lucky and the people "playing smart", you know enough to do your investing yourself.)

Lost_BiomedE• 10 years ago

Day trading is similar. I have even read poker books to help with my day trading. There are tons of knowledge-of-self and life lessons within both.

In this case, I think we have both variance and a cycle. Given the age range of many bigger than life stars, the current cycle is just gearing up. Within that cycle we will have clustering and variance.

sod• 10 years ago

Maybe there are just more and more people with each generation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population

stretchwithme• 10 years ago

The year I was born, nobody that I knew died. Slowly, but surely that number started to rise, as I got to know about more people.

And now with the Internet making us aware of so much of what's going on and who's doing it, that trend is amplified.

And the more one focuses on that trend, or how long ago something happened, the older one feels.

Which is another reason that living in the moment is often a very good thing.

Why so many celebrities have died in 2016

Related Stories