Tracking North Korea’s Kwangmyongsong-4 Satellite Using OSINT

http://phasenoise.livejournal.com/2381.html

by wolframio • 10 years ago

79 78 10 years ago

phasenoise.livejournal.com

bognition• 10 years ago

So how long is it before western countries intervene? NK has demonstrated that they can build nuclear bombs, they have demonstrated that they can put objects into orbit. Its only a matter of time before they can do both at the same time.

nxzero• 10 years ago

What would you suggest and why?

CapitalistCartr• 10 years ago

The are the PROC's pet; put the screws to them to sort out Kim.

madaxe_again2• 10 years ago

Some kind of war in Korea. It worked out well last time, right?

pcrh• 10 years ago

I don't believe that NK has demonstrated that they can build nuclear bombs... If I recall correctly, their claimed nuclear detonation was not in fact a fully-fledged nuclear explosion.

Also, they are weak as heck, and can't realistically attack anyone without being annihilated.

The continuous rhetoric viz-a-viz NK, both from their side and the West is quite ridiculous to behold.

andrewchambers• 10 years ago

They can make fission nuclear bombs, but probably not the more powerful fusion nuclear bombs.

djcapelis• 10 years ago

So how long is it before western countries intervene?

Probably as long as it takes for someone to figure out a way to do it without watching Seoul get leveled.

dominotw• 10 years ago

Because its impossible atm to intervene.

1. Seoul is reachable even by conventional weapons from NK

2. China uses NK to manipulate the west.

3. NK govt has millions of their own citizens as hostage( most of them willingly so).

4. There is no proof that NK is planning to follow up their saber rattling with real attacks.

jimmcslim• 10 years ago

I assume the answer is 'no', but did NK liaise in anyway with the international body that governs orbital slots for satellites, or is it irrelevant for this orbit (or likely to deorbit in a few months anyway).

I'm not sure what is more likely; an NK that goes all first strike, or gets a bit too ambitious in launching satellites without participating in the appropriate international processes and triggers a Kessler Syndrome event in Earth orbit.

cperciva3• 10 years ago

deorbit in a few months anyway

This makes me think of a movie plot: A rogue nation is suspected of preparing an ICBM launch, but moments after launch it becomes clear that the trajectory will take the payload into orbit and the world breathes a sigh of relief. That is, until a spy discovers that the satellite contains a nuclear weapon and is designed to deorbit a few months later and land in Washington DC...

JshWright• 10 years ago

That would be well into sci-fi movie plot territory though... The atmosphere is far too variable to predict a specific deorbit point months in advance.

13of402• 10 years ago

This is a good read if you're interested in that sort of thing: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinetic_bombardment

ctdonath• 10 years ago

More like that payload detonates over the USA, causing an EMP that fries high tech electronics, subsequently killing millions.

That one is called "One Second After", a good read.

dghughes• 10 years ago

These things always seem to land in Canada if I had it I'd bet $100 it's going to come down on my house.

grubles• 10 years ago

This is what they were talking about on Fox News earlier today.

wrigby• 10 years ago

Orbital slots apply mostly to geostationary spacecraft, which this is not. It is far too low for geo orbit. I'm not sure how LEO is regulated, but very few commercial spacecraft would be affected by this bird. The only commercial craft that I can think of down there are the satellites that make up the Iridium constellation.

jackgavigan4• 10 years ago

It is irrelevant for this orbit. The ITU assigns slots for geostationary orbits but you don't have to get permission to put a satellite into a non-GSO. Countries are, however, expected to notify the ITU of their intentions so that the ITU can disseminate that information to the rest of the world and coordinate to avoid any problems (this is more to do with radio frequencies than avoiding physical collisions).

North Korea notified the ITU a few days before the launch but the information provided was incomplete (they didn't include the frequencies the satellite will be using).

They expect it to have a four year life, by the way.

jsprogrammer2• 10 years ago

they didn't include the frequencies the satellite will be using

According the the article, the satellite has made no detectable transmissions.

dfc• 10 years ago

What is the question you are answering no to?

Outdoorsman4• 10 years ago

Interesting...the article posits, if frequencies can be discovered, it might be possible to intercept/capture transmissions from the satellite, when in range, using something as simple as a ham radio or SDR dongle (police scanner)...

My understanding of satellite coms is that many satellites are of the "relay" class, and use TDRS--Tracking and Data Relay Satellite--to bounce signals from satellite to satellite when a ground station is not in line of sight...NASA, for instance...

I wonder what the N. Korean coms protocol is...?

viraptor6• 10 years ago

That's assuming it's not encrypted. A lot of the data coming in is transmitted in plain right now, (comms, images, telemetry, ...) because it's just not worth encrypting, or simply could be of interest to other parties. But if anyone wants to put encryption on the data, you're not going to find out much.

That said... it's passing right over me in a few minutes, so I'll be out monitoring the 4xx freqs :)

Edit: in case anyone was wondering - nothing exciting happened. No sign of new signals during a perfect pass: https://i.imgur.com/rMC6gIE.png (at least not at those freqs they used previously)

Outdoorsman4• 10 years ago

Agreed...

Three years ago they put a satellite in orbit...orbit is decaying for that one...

Of course, there's quite a bit of speculation that they're more interested in testing rockets than orbiting a functioning satellite...

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missile-idUSKCN...

VeilEm2• 10 years ago

because it's just not worth encrypting

That seems unlikely to be the reason but I don't know much about how satellites are programmed. On the terrestrial plane a $5 raspberry pi with free software can encrypt and decrypt secure communication. It's trivial and cheap to encrypt.

marak830• 10 years ago

I was checking back to see what you got. Thank you for the update.

Tepix• 10 years ago

Why is it widely condemned when North Korea launches a satellite?

Why does the article quote North Korea's "right" to explore space in a peaceful manner?

Just wondering.

It's not like plenty of other states are putting military satellites in orbit without asking anyone for permission.

ForHackernews• 10 years ago

Because it's widely assumed that this satellite launch is a test-bed for a nuclear-warhead ICBM.

viraptor6• 10 years ago

Why does the article quote North Korea's "right" to explore space in a peaceful manner?

Because if you run through the street, it's normal. If you run through the street shouting that you're exercising your right to run through the street in a peaceful manner, it's being super suspicious. (like naming state-controlled newspaper "The Truth") Also because everyone is aware they're experimenting with serious weapons and act as if they are disconnected from consequences, so it's worth paying attention.

Outdoorsman4• 10 years ago

The launch has already been condemned by the UN Security Council...

http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/07/asia/north-korea-rocket-launch...

GFK_of_xmaspast2• 10 years ago

act as if they are disconnected from consequences

One suspects that pretty much everybody in the NK leadership is aware of the last few decades of international sanctions.

madaxe_again2• 10 years ago

Indeed. I'm actually impressed by the technical achievement - putting something into a (nearly) circular polar orbit is no mean feat.

As for the "it's an ICBM test!" crowd - bollocks. That's like saying the Boeing 747 was a test to see if manned flight is possible - total overengineering.

Also, for context, what exactly do folks think soyuz goes into space on? A magical peace rocket? No. It goes up on an R-7, which is an ICBM - the very first developed, in fact. That nasty ICBM technology has kept the ISS running.

The Mercury programme redstone rockets that put Americans in space - also ballistic missiles that had had warheads replaced with crew capsules.

Should America and Russia have been condemned by the world? By the standards being applied here, yes.

So, shake your fist all you like, but regardless of their politics this is a technical coup, and I congratulate them on a successful launch.

mikeash6• 10 years ago

You say the ICBM connection is bollocks, then discuss the extensive links between the two. That seems slightly contradictory.

gozur888• 10 years ago

As for the "it's an ICBM test!" crowd - bollocks. That's like saying the Boeing 747 was a test to see if manned flight is possible - total overengineering.

Not true. The North Koreans aren't at the point yet where they can miniaturize nuclear bombs, so if they're going to make a system that can deliver nuclear warheads, it's going to need to be something like this.

vpribish• 10 years ago

you are deeply wrong, friend. Our, and the soviet, rocket development was very clearly ICBM development - thats no secret. North Korea is quite obviously following the same path. Yes, it is a technical accomplishment - no they are not to be congratulated : do you live in a cave? They are universally condemned not because they can do engineering, but because they are an affront to civilization.

brg1007• 10 years ago

Why is it widely condemned when North Korea launches a satellite?

Because 18 million reasons.[1] When so many people are always on the brink of famine, you can stop "playing war" and you can help your people in need.

[1]http://reliefweb.int/report/democratic-peoples-republic-kore...

gozur888• 10 years ago

Why is it widely condemned when North Korea launches a satellite?

Because most countries view it as a cover for an ICBM program. Anything that can launch a satellite into orbit can carry a nuke to the other side of the world.

Why does the article quote North Korea's "right" to explore space in a peaceful manner?

Doesn't it have that right? Who is to say North Korea can't launch satellites?

This is a tricky thing for other countries to navigate. We really don't have the right to tell them they can't have satellites or nuclear power. Other countries collectively launch satellites every week or so, and there are 438 operating nuclear reactors.

On the other hand... nobody trusts the Norks, and with good reason. I guess it's like interpersonal communications - reputation matters.

mikeash6• 10 years ago

Reputation and precedent. It's long past time to complain about the US's ICBMs.

And for everyone sarcastically wondering why the US gets a pass, I'm pretty sure there was a lot of criticism at the time over the US's (and Soviets') nuclear buildup.

jackgavigan4• 10 years ago

The UN Security Council has banned North Korea from developing ballistic missile technology. There's not much difference between a rocket that's capable of putting a satellite into orbit and an intercontinental ballistic missile. In fact, Sputnik was launched using an ICBM.

VeilEm2• 10 years ago

I realize N Korea is pretty isolated, but China shares technology with the country right? Do engineers in N Korea go to school in China?

yongjik2• 10 years ago

I don't think China has anything to gain by giving NK advanced rocket technology. China already have enough power to impress its neighbors and is not afraid to show it off, so there's no need to prop up a satellite nation which is barely controllable.

If anything, NK rockets are a very handy excuse for Japan to re-arm itself (or continue arming itself, depending on how you look at it), and I can't imagine China liking its prospect. Meanwhile, South Korean government is already discussing plans to introduce THAAD (whatever that is) into SK, and apparently China is pretty upset about that, too. Sigh.

gozur888• 10 years ago

THAAD is theater ballistic missile defense. Not sure why China would care, particularly when the South Koreans don't have nuclear weapons.

There's quite a bit of evidence for nuclear armed US warships calling at South Korean ports, but US ships already have ballistic missile defenses.

gozur888• 10 years ago

The technology connection is more Pakistan-Iran-North Korea. China doesn't benefit from too much North Korean independence.

nl• 10 years ago

I realize N Korea is pretty isolated, but China shares technology with the country right?

Doubtful at this level. The North Korean missile systems it sold to Syria (and Iran) in the early 2010s were NK development of earlier Soviet systems[1].

[1] http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jul/18/history-north-k...

jpatokal• 10 years ago

Since neither the article nor the comments here mention this: it is not at all clear that the launched object was a satellite. In fact, the available evidence -- including the fact that no transmissions have ever been detected from this or its three predecessors -- points towards it being an intercontinental ballistic missile test, and the "satellite" is just a cover story.

And there's precedent too: the Kwangmyongsong-1 deorbited almost immediately, but the launch was still hailed in the NK press as a total success, up to and including broadcasting songs extolling the virtues of Kims.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kwangmy%C5%8Fngs%C5%8Fng-1

viraptor6• 10 years ago

the fact that no transmissions have ever been detected from this or its three predecessors

May not be true. KMS-2 supposedly played some songs for us. But wikipedia is not certain.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kwangmy%C5%8Fngs%C5%8Fng-2#The...

13of402• 10 years ago

It would be hilarious if it just started broadcasting propaganda at 99.9 Mhz.

drewnoakes• 10 years ago

Can frequency hopping or something similar be used to make transmissions from satellites hard or impossible to detect?

Tracking North Korea’s Kwangmyongsong-4 Satellite Using OSINT

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