Alan Kay: With the Tablet, Apple Will Rule the World

http://gigaom.com/2010/01/26/alan-kay-with-the-tablet-apple-will-rule-the-world/

by pchristensen • 16 years ago

45 47 16 years ago

Maciek416• 16 years ago

With McGraw-Hill's CEO for all intents and purposes confirming this product to be real and running iPhone OS, I'll be very surprised, and saddened, if a shut-tight, app-store-limited device like this will lead to world domination.

Are tightly closed environments like this where we want personal computing to go next?

Are only a small number of people going to own powerful computers with which they can do anything they want, with the rest going through app stores and the cloud? It sounded good to me before, but now that we may all be on the receiving end, it seems disheartening.

axod• 16 years ago

2 words - Web Browser.

App stores are just a stop gap until web browsers catch up.

mortenjorck• 16 years ago

The real irony here is that Apple could end up accomplishing what ChromeOS was supposed to, better than Google was going to. That would be strange.

That said, Apple's interest isn't in thin clients because once they're too thin, it gets pretty hard to sell you a new one.

mikedouglas• 16 years ago

A lot of users are lost in the functionality of modern desktop operating systems. For Apple, this means a worse experience and lost content sales. For Google, this means lost advertising dollars.

It makes sense that both companies would eventually converge on trying to radically simplify the user interface.

moe• 16 years ago

Are tightly closed environments like this where we want personal computing to go next?

I think it's a bit early for world domination plans, we haven't even seen the device. Also, to put things in perspective; the iPhone, which is considered a huge success, has only grabbed around 14% market share so far. It's not like the competition would just sit and watch...

bitwize3• 16 years ago

The vast bulk of high-end smartphones are now either iPhones or iPhone imitators. Everybody else just plays the game -- Apple changes the rules and the playing field.

koanarc• 16 years ago

My thoughts exactly. As fascinating as all of this iTablet hubbub may be, I'm more interested in the attempts to one-up it that are sure to follow over the next ~5 years. For starters, considering Google's growing stake in the mobile market, just how long will it be before they want in on this action? Just how many steps behind Apple could they possibly be on this?

iPhone :: Android phones as 'iTablet' :: ??

Apple makes new tech fashionable. Someone else can always come along afterward to make it open.

bitwize3• 16 years ago

Are tightly closed environments like this where we want personal computing to go next?

YES.

You want a guy like Steve in the driver's seat of how your platform should look, behave, and integrate with the user's daily life. Look at Linux: Its promise is that you can make it do or be anything and what has the open source community produced? Well, there's Ubuntu, a pale imitation of Windows in terms of integration, but by and large the open source community has switched to Mac.

If the iTablet were completely closed hardware-wise, had super-restrictive third-party app development, but still offered books, Wikipedia, and video via an always-on connection, for sale or free download as appropriate, it would still be a freakin' boon to mankind. And with the right restrictions in place it would be something immediately beneficial for every user instead of just a geek toy.

Raphael_Amiard• 16 years ago

> but by and large the open source community has switched to Mac.

Allow me to at least question that assumption ...

pyre5• 16 years ago

> [...] by and large the open source community has switched to Mac.

Are you claiming that by-and-large all open source software is targeted at OSX first, with Windows/Linux taking a backseat?

Are you claiming that the open source community is going to embrace Apple's tablet offering? How is this going to happen? Are open source apps going to be accepted into the tablet's AppStore? Are open source developers going to use the tablet as a development platform for whatever their target platform is?

Did you also take into account the fact that since OS X comes with so much open source software (Ruby,Python,Perl,etc) 'baked-in' that lots of 'MacHeads' have joined the Open Source community as a result? Did you take into account that many people that switched from Windows to OS X and were presented with the Open Source software that comes with it have also joined the Open Source community?

Sorry, but I take issue with people that decide to make far-reaching claims without anything to back them up other than their own personal opinions. 'Begging the question' seems appropriate here.

hexley5• 16 years ago

I posted this in the other thread before, but I'm going to repost it here because people still don't seem to understand why the iPhone's restrictions are so important.

---------------------

I don't see how it's anything other than a net positive, you gain in security and ease of use for consumers. If you're more hacker minded like this audience is, it's extremely trivial to jailbreak - the distinction being that it is totally independent and not sanctioned by Apple whatsoever. This is an important point.

After working in user support I can totally empathise with Apple's decision to keep the platform closed via the App Store. The vast majority of the people buying these phones (ie, normal users - not geeks) are the ones who voluntarily install spyware on their PC's, click yes to every dialog box they see and execute random email attachments without thinking twice. They don't scrutinise certificate errors in their browser, use PGP, constantly have a bash window or two hanging around - in fact I think a lot of the people who have bought iPhones as fashion accessories would have trouble even changing their wallpaper.

The iPhone undeniably has the biggest mindshare, and a very hefty marketshare slice of any high-end mobile communications device yet, one notably skewed toward people with large disposable incomes.

Remember, it's constantly connected to the internet, has a connection to the phone network (and thus an unlimited tab conveniently linked to your credit card), knows where you are and even in which direction you're facing. It knows who you talk to, who your contacts are...etc. I could go on. The point is this device and it's associated popularity is a fucking GOLDMINE for the kind of people who write malware.

The App Store and it's uncompromising restriction is the final solution to keeping this cesspool of a software "ecosystem" off the platform.

Even if Apple provided an "Advanced" setting which gains you root access on your device the malware writers would simply instruct the clueless user to enable it, and I KNOW that 99.9% of people would do it without hesitation, for the promise of nothing more than a cheap thrill. All the EULA-type warning "this-is-a-bad-idea-and-we're-not-responsible" notifications in the world won't stop them. It's based on the same psychology as that study where an alarming majority of people would tell you their password for a chocolate bar.

Oooh, kittens!!! cue screaming and convenient lawsuits targeting high-profile Apple when their phone bill arrives with a $50,000 total

Yeah, I think we can do without that sort of thing, and Apple certainly doesn't need that kind of unrepairable damage done to their brand perception.

We put up with malware on Windows because like it or not it's the de-facto standard, and consequently most people don't know any better. There is an almost bewildering array of choice when it comes to mobile handsets, and people are likely to go with the one that doesn't have a reputation for involuntarily emptying your bank account.

orangecat• 16 years ago

If you're more hacker minded like this audience is, it's extremely trivial to jailbreak - the distinction being that it is totally independent and not sanctioned by Apple whatsoever.

Not only "not sanctioned" by Apple, but actively opposed by them. They go out of their way to stop jailbreakers and consider them criminals, and per the DMCA they're probably right. It will be terrible for future innovation if the only way to gain control over your own hardware is to become a felon.

The App Store and it's uncompromising restriction is the final solution to keeping this cesspool of a software "ecosystem" off the platform.

Along with anything that remotely competes with Apple's business model. If Microsoft had that level of control 20 years ago, we wouldn't have the web.

That's a testable prediction, since Android offers exactly that setting. We'll see if it becomes a cesspool of malware; I don't expect it to.

pyre5• 16 years ago

> Even if Apple provided an "Advanced" setting which gains you root access on your device the malware writers would simply instruct the clueless user to enable it, and I KNOW that 99.9% of people would do it without hesitation, for the promise of nothing more than a cheap thrill.

...and 80% of statistics are made up on the spot...

No offense, but isn't this the kind of 'protect people from themselves' crap that gets ragged on in a political sense under the term 'Nanny State?' Are you advocating this?

Let's say that Apple does have a 'press this button for root access' option. Once malware starts telling people to enable that option, don't you think that it would be HUGE in the media, and word would spread like wildfire that you shouldn't do that or your identity will be stolen? People are dumb to desktop computer security because it doesn't affect their 'bottom line.' When someone's computer becomes part of a botnet or installs popup malware, they likely don't know the difference from when their computer is normally functioning.

How many people have actually had (for example) their bank accounts emptied because of a computer virus? If such incidents became commonplace, you can bet your butt that people would get smart real fast. Right now there is just no incentive for people to get smart to these things because "the computer is getting really slow" is the only difference that they notice between an infected desktop and an uninfected one (and when it's their employer's computer they have even less incentive to care because 'IT will take care of it').

sjs• 16 years ago

Jailbreaking doesn't help when, say, Google doesn't release an app to the public that Apple won't let in the store.

I agree with some of what you say but can't help but feel that open is the only way to a good future.

Then again, this device isn't even out yet. It certainly hasn't taken over the world. And even if it becomes wildly popular Linux, BSD, Windows, and whatever other OSs are out there are not going away because of it.

jonny_noog• 16 years ago

You make some relevant points.

But somehow, I doubt creating the "final solution" fail safe platform was first and foremost in the minds of whoever it was that thought up the iPhone app store model. Nobody likes a monopoly... unless it's their monopoly.

CamperBob2• 16 years ago

Are tightly closed environments like this where we want personal computing to go next?

No point even asking questions like this, until you address what to do about the millions of idiots who click on every attachment they get and answer 'Yes' to every dialog without reading it. Because social efforts have failed to fix this problem, it's apparently a technical one, and the technical solution is to make it difficult for all but expert users to treat new mass-market devices as wide-open platforms.

Sucks, but what else can they do?

SwellJoe4• 16 years ago

What does security have to do with a tightly closed environment?

You're conflating two separate issues, and when you come to the (obviously correct) conclusion that users are generally stupid and shouldn't be able to easily break their computer, that it has something to do with Apple deciding who gets to build applications and how one uses the machine. Apple does not provide better security in Mac OS X or on the iPhone than Open Source operating systems, in general. As far as I know, Android has at least as good a security history as iPhone for the time it's been in existence.

Sucks, but what else can they do?

They can do the right thing, and not act as gatekeepers. Or, they can do what they've always done, and maximize profits, minimize consumer and developer freedoms, and charge a lot for it.

actf• 16 years ago

>Are tightly closed environments like this where we want personal computing to go next?

I think all signs to point to yes (assuming you use "we" to mean the population at large and not HN). Outside the mobile world, look at the example provided by consoles. They epitomize the idea of a locked down environment. Look at how popular they are compared to PC gaming. I think that consumers want the slick, easy to use, "it just works" environment much more than they want an open environment.

People don't like it when they have to sort through the web to find software of marginal quality. With a closed system a gatekeeper filters this out for them.

I think there will always be a market for those who want an open system, but it will take a back seat to closed systems. It'll be interesting to see how this can be implemented in practice. The idea of a "root mode" for advanced users and "simple mode" for regular users seems like one possible solution.

netcan2• 16 years ago

It seems like the immediate future, at least, is diverse. Thin, thick, everything in the cloud, your machine is also a server, closed, open, appliance

The PC has been extraordinarily open so far, when you think about it. Imagine users of a phone or music player being given easy tools and encouraged to tinker with the way it stores music or contacts. Sounds outrageous.

The reality is that many (maybe most) users are confused by the fact that they can to music via itunes or via the file system. They definitely don't want to think about whether or not itunes is making a copy of that mp3 file in a different format, just remembering its location or moving it.

Open comes with a learning overhead.

pyre5• 16 years ago

Not necessarily. You can have a tightly integrated system that is not a closed system. There was nothing (technical) preventing Apple from implementing their libraries/framework/graphical frontend on top of a Linux backend. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong, but this seems more like a business decision (i.e. 'Not invented here' or "We don't control it") and/or license issue (i.e. 'GPL is viral') . (I know that Steve was CEO of NeXT and brought that platform with him and that's what they used, but it wasn't necessary for them to do so.)

shalmanese• 16 years ago

Real Story: Some off hand comment made over 2 years ago is dredged up to provide a tantalizing headline which is put in place solely to drive traffic.

kqr2• 16 years ago

Well, he also claims to have spoken to Kay late last year:

Kay still wasn’t sure whether Apple would actually come out with a tablet when I talked to him late last year, noting that such a device could theoretically compete with the company’s iPhone business. But, he added: “I bet a thousand dollars that they had a five-by-eight-inch version for the last couple years in house.”

blasdel• 16 years ago

The original series of prototypes was called the SafariPad, and one of the form-factors was similarly Newton-sized. Apparently only good for surfing the web on the toilet.

lurkinggrue• 16 years ago

At this point I would not be surprised with the headline "Apple tablet to poop rainbows and give you a pony."

icefox• 16 years ago

Done http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1079784

10ren• 16 years ago

5x8? add a keyboard, and it's very close to the eeePC's dimensions. Differences:

- much lighter (because ARM uses less power, therefore lighter batteries for same battery life; lighter construction in general; and lighter because no keyboard.

- connectivity (3G). This really is an internet appliance.

BUT I really don't think it can work without a keyboard (please make me famous by quoting me if I'm wrong!) Possibly, a large touch-screen keyboard would be workable enough to be useful, even without tactile feedback; but I really think it would be mainly a gimmick.

BTW: I typed on a video-hire kiosk's touchscreen today, and although slow, it was much less frustrating than I expected.

bitwize3• 16 years ago

Spend much time on the go with a netbook and you will find out how much more essential a (multi) touch screen is than a keyboard for something that's primarily intended as a browsing device (as opposed to a tiny, tiny computer you can do your Excel spreadsheets on).

moron4hire2• 16 years ago

5"x8" doesn't fit in my pocket. I have a paper notebook here on my desk that is 5"x8". I never use it. I have a moleskine that goes with me everywhere. It's harder to write in the moleskine than the larger notebook, but then I don't ever have the larger notebook with me, so it doesn't matter.

If you're making me give up ergonomic input by giving up the desktop, I need to gain portability. That's why netbooks sucked so hard, input sucked and they weren't more portable than my laptop. The on screen and slideout keyboards on the iPhone and Droid are awful, but at least the devices fit in your pocket.

And can we please get over the techy self importance? The iPhone is pretty popular -- amongst geeks and rich people. Most people who have cellphones in general still have the freebie brick or folder that came with their plan. Just because Apple has done something to make a big splash in our pond called the tech industry doesn't mean our pond is large enough to matter to The World.

According to this site (http://www.wirefly.org/news/cell-phone-facts.php), 72% of the US population owns cell phones. I don't know exactly what they mean by that, but if that's 72% of the approximate 300 million population of the US, then that's 216 million cellphone users in the country. According to Wikipedia, Apple has sold 42 million iPhone units (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPhone). That's roughly 20% if you aren't accounting for people who have paid for upgrades to the 3G and 3GS models. This page indicates that 16% of the market owns PDAs in general, lumping the iPhone into the PDA category (http://ticketsdotcom.blogspot.com/2009/09/mobile-trends-amer...). Significant for sure, but not "taking over the world". Why should we expect a device of less utility than a cellphone to do better?

dandelany• 16 years ago

Wait, so you want a tablet that is smaller than 5x8", smaller than a netbook, and that fits in your pocket? You know you can buy those already from Apple, right?

moron4hire2• 16 years ago

That's my point entirely. Predictions that an "<insert-any-company> tablet is going to take over the world" are woefully self-interested and fail to consider what "the world" actually means. I'm sure from a technology standpoint, it will be a neat device, but it's only going to matter to technophiles, and even then, only for novelty.

jodrellblank• 16 years ago

This taught me what it would take to get me to click on another gigaom.com link - an implication of an interview with Alan Kay.

It's right back on my "do not click" mental list, with an extra strong negative weighting. An article about how Alan Kay's comment from several years ago re: the iPhone suggests he might like the alledged new tablet, plus a quip from an interview a year ago does not a worthwhile post make.

The only good thing I can say about not having a universal micropayment system is that I'm glad it cost them hosting and bandwidth fees to handle my page load. I hope it was disproportionately expensive.

dmn• 16 years ago

I know that the masses are going to fall in love with the upcoming Apple Tablet, but I still don't understand why its getting so much hype =/

Hopefully to stand up to the buzz, it is more than just a souped up iPod Touch.

Am I one of the few to think that it might not be "all that"?

Alan Kay: With the Tablet, Apple Will Rule the World

Related Stories