wraaath

It's in the link above, but in text format for those not willing to click: (source was from the US treasury department bureau of fiscal service)

Deficit under administration of: Republicans: Trump: +7.1T HW Bush: +2.2T W Bush: +2.1T Reagan: +1.7T Ford: +781.2B Hoover: +246.4B Nixon: +7.2B

Democrats: Obama: +5.6T Biden: +2.8T FDR: +1.3T Clinton: +614.4B JFK +194.8B Wilson: +191.9B

The rest of the presidents (D/R) - had net reductions in deficit.

A decade too late for Appnexus

That hasn't been my experience. I've never had the experience of BigCo only acquiring just enough for 50.1% ownership. There's also clauses in the equity plans for participation on change of control (assuming that BigCo taking 50.1% constitutes change of control)

True that stock _options_ are only worth something after an IPO, but vested and exercised stock options that get turned into equity is a different story.

Equity can be worth something via acquisition from private equity doing roll-ups, corporate buyers looking to fill strategic product niches, etc

Also, for the more heavily vc-funded late stage still pre-ipo plays, secondary market, which can be at a discount to the most recent vc round, or in some rare instances in a hot sector, premium.

One other thing - waiting for the IPO might be the worst thing to wait to do. The public markets are much more fickle than private markets. Once a company IPOs, there's usually a trading moratorium on insider shares, usually 180 days, so by then, the equity value may have completely imploded.

Here's the set of categories exempted from the tariffs (via perplexity) Original source: https://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/USDHSCBP/bulletins/... Backup: https://archive.is/el9Mz

via Perplexity:

8471: Automatic data-processing machines and units thereof, including computers, laptops, disc drives, and other data processing equipment.

8473.30: Parts and accessories for automatic data-processing machines, such as components used in computers.

8486: Machines and apparatus for the manufacture of semiconductor devices or electronic integrated circuits.

8517.13.00: Mobile phones (cellular telephones) or other wireless network devices.

8517.62.00: Communication apparatus capable of connecting to a network, such as routers and modems.

8523.51.00: Solid-state storage devices (e.g., flash drives) used for recording data.

8524: Recorded media, such as DVDs, CDs, and other optical discs.

8528.52.00: Flat-panel displays capable of video playback, including monitors and televisions.

8541.10.00: Diodes, including light-emitting diodes (LEDs).

8541.21.00: Transistors with a dissipation rate of less than 1 watt.

8541.29.00: Other transistors not specified elsewhere.

8541.30.00: Thyristors, diacs, and triacs used in electronics.

8541.49.10 to 8541.49.95: Semiconductor devices such as integrated circuits (ICs) categorized by specific types or functions.

8541.51.00: Semiconductor devices designed for photovoltaic applications (solar cells).

8541.59.00: Other semiconductor devices not elsewhere classified.

8541.90.00: Parts of semiconductor devices or electronic integrated circuits.

8542: Electronic integrated circuits, including microprocessors and memory chips.

holy crap the backstory on amazon fresh. no wonder. meanwhile I thought they'd solved that through tagging or something. I guess I should've known - I had read the articles on how scale ai had a ton of folks in the philippines...

More importantly - the US bond market Treasury yields, the trigger that caused Trump to finally 180, has now continued rising (i.e. a very bad thing). https://www.cnbc.com/bonds/

Some potential insider antics:

https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/1910167321878163815

All of this ONLY after

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-sec-see-exodus-hundreds-...

Eyes wide shut as they loot.

The US is rapidly moving towards becoming the Sultanate of Dumbf*ckistan.

I recruited for a late stage pre-ipo unicorn after COVID. On the cash portion of compensation - 145k was the suggested starting negotiation point for a fresh out of college engineering candidate at offer stage. For that level, we'd go as high as a one-time additional 22k on signing with equity at 225k in RSU's (/4 year vest).

He went off like an idiot on tariffs the very first weekend. Canada & Mexico if you recall.

Or, this the beginnings of a sell-off as the rest of the world realizes that the US is no longer a reliable (trading/military/alliance) partner, and will move to mitigate the dependency for the rest of the world's mutual preservation.

Also - this implosion is happening WAY faster than the dotcom bubble pop and even 2020 COVID lockdown selloff, and there is no stimulus coming to save the market this time.

This was somewhat predictable, as Trump doing illogical Trumpian things, but somehow he even exceeded the maximum irrationality predicted by the market, thus, the heightened adverse reaction.

All of the major Wall Street banks called in their staff over the weekend. Lots of margin calls going out due to the market losses so far. Monday will be another bloodletting day, so there will be a chance that some customers may go unrecoverable net negative. This raises the issue of counterparty risk, and everyone tightens up as a result. Capitalization then becomes key, and with losses flying around, the first one to breach will end up cascading the risk to others. 2008 all over again, and oh yeah, weren't there mass layoffs on the government regulators side a few months ago - so who's answering the phone or running due diligence on the government side to figure out who is salvagable and who isn't?

I wonder what the over/under is on the number of banks that will fail in the next 7 days and whether it will precipitate into a contagion vector.

No - it's based on hype and dreams. If it was solely based on fundamentals TSLA would carry an car company multiple, dropping a digit off it's share price. At that price, Elon would have a significant chunk of his TSLA holdings margin called away and be less of a threat to the world and the people on it as a whole.

calls for 3 months out only make sense once the stock price is decimated, and there's no certainty that prices will recover given the bumbling antics of this administration.

I was thinking margin calls too: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43423201#43425801

He had a sizable chunk of collateralized borrowings against his Tesla shares even before the Twitter acquisition. There was the risk of a margin call during year following the acquisition, but AI became the latest hotness so he was able to spin up a company to cook up some more market bubble.

And.. looks like there was an update on the valuation from Bloomberg: Aggregate over 100B, but less than 113B due to some mingled ownership.

https://archive.is/esoEN

And another one in this similar vein: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43510865

Also - Trump nerfed federal enforcement of foreign anti-bribery laws, because, of course.

https://us.transparency.org/news/pause-on-enforcement-of-for...

Also - the wording on the deal: xAI being valued at 80B X being valued at 33B Is the xAI 80B number inclusive of the 33B (45B including debt)? That would back into xAI's valuation moving backwards since the December round. Usually when venture-backed companies tout a valuation after a capital raise, it's post-money... and they're not chest-thumping a 113B number (which they surely would have given 9 figures)

And then they get summarily purged by DOGE. Reddit LeopardsAteMyFace style.

Definitely great for the Twitter investors to be able to convert. I think they took a haircut relative to the 42B that they came in on, as the 45B includes the 12B debt. (42 gets reduced to 33, so 21-22% haircut) xAI also raised 6B in December last year at a 45B valuation, and then in February, reporting was that xAI was trying to raise 10B more at the 75B valuation... so this is where the frothiness of AI helps to mask the fundamentals. Can gets kicked down the road.

While simultaneously causing one of the biggest mass casualty events in what was once the United states.

You still do see plenty of trash in the 10-K's with all of the massaged messaging, but yeah.

I doubt that either of the parents have (1) or (2) in their mindset/decisioning tree. This is just Darwinism in full effect. Nature has a habit of shaking off the weak, and the weak minded.

At this stage, employees don't own enough for it to be a meaningful percentage. According to Tesla's 2024 10-K annual filing - as of December 31, 2024, total RSUs vested total 18,409,000 which, at today (March 21 2025) have a market value of 4.578B. This is with Tesla having a market cap of just under 800B today (so total RSUs total 0.57% of TSLA)

On the other hand - Wall Street, in aggregate, held around 56.62% of the total Tesla float (float comprises of shares available for trading, i.e. discounting closely held insider holdings, and restricted stock)

And Wall Street generally focuses on results... That's where the stampede has been coming from, and probably will be where it continues once the next quarterly numbers get released, what with the implosion of international demand and competitive marketplace continuing to eat away at Tesla's market share. Tesla even now still trades at a 122 P/E ratio. GE is at 33, Ford is at 6. Gravity will do the rest.

One other thing that hasn't been heavily talked about: What $/share on TSLA will trigger margin calls on the massive loans that Musk took out collateralized by his TSLA stock. Once those get triggered, the snowball effect of market sales by the loan holders will accelerate the downward price trajectory.

GEO Group also operates similar facilities in Australia, and is publicly traded in the US stock market under the symbol GEO. For the quarter ending 12/31/2024, they had top line revenue of 608M, but pre-tax income came in at 24M, and carrying debt of 2.3B. Somehow with such thin profit margins, their stock is trading at a 4B market capitalization and carrying a 128 P/E (by comparison, Google carries a 20 P/E, Meta 24), i.e. "richly overvalued". It would be a damned shame if Australia started re-evaluating those contracts. Oh - and some of the risk factors that GEO notes in their last 10-K annual filing:

Efforts to reduce the U.S. federal deficit could adversely affect our liquidity, results of operations and financial condition.

We partner with a limited number of governmental customers who account for a significant portion of our revenues. The loss of, or a significant decrease in revenues from, these customers could seriously harm our financial condition and results of operations.

We are subject to the loss of our facility management contracts, due to terminations, non-renewals or competitive re-bids, which could adversely affect our results of operations and liquidity, including our ability to secure new facility management contracts from other government customers.

and also - this amazing level of self-awareness:

Adverse publicity may negatively impact our ability to retain existing contracts and obtain new contracts.

Along with all of these Musk/Trump regime's antics, the cruelty is merely a feature, not a bug.