Your third point is quite solid. People support capitalism for only one reason—they actually really do believe they are temporarily embarrassed capitalists, just one job away from some Prince Charming mentor figure discovering their talent being “wasted” at the bottom and lifting them into the C-suite. In truth, of course, the system sees them as being right where they belong.
This “overproduction” crisis is a war between the outer capitalist party and the inner one, the former being a powerless but once comfortable buffer class the real elite has decided it wants to try living without.
Technological changes and globalization have led the actual economic elite to decide they no longer need a large middle class (outer party). This is not about overproduction. Supply isn’t changing. It’s demand going to zero that is creating the problem.