uselessTA

100%, imo risks from internal deployment will eventually be the biggest risks, and keeping models heavily gated/not accessible just makes these risks much worse.

it didn't because it wasn't released. As soon as it was actually released (chatGPT) it obviously did, so the general point was clearly true

The concern I heard was that releasing it would start an arms race for AGI, which I think it clearly did

Clearly state "we could both verifiably slow down, which you might want to do given that we're ahead & have way more compute. If you don't agree (or defect later), we'll just immediately resume and win"

Ideally also persuade them there are risks and it's worth everyone slowing down for them, and apply pressure in other ways, but not sure that's even necessary.

Unilateral disarmament doesn't work though. If Anthropic is worried about this, just letting OpenAI win does seem genuinely worse.

The claim I remember was that releasing it would start an arms race for AGI, which was absolutely true

There's an objection here when you get to tiny numbers, but surely you wouldn't get ice cream if there was a 10+% chance to get hit by a car?

I think he's saying that >1% or even >10% chunk of your probability mass should be on superintelligence, otherwise you're implicily >99% confident of stalled progress, which seems overconfident. We're not talking about not some infinitesimal fraction here.

The claim I remember was that releasing it would start an arms race for AGI, which I think it clearly did