trident1000

My favorite stat of the year: There is now more civil asset forfeiture (government robbery) than actual robberies in the US by value.

The LA mayor is telling people to not walk outside because of covid. If thats not absurd big liberal govt policy idk what is. Who would want to live somewhere where the govt thinks they can do that. Your rights as a person dont vanish in a crisis.

https://fortune.com/2020/12/03/los-angeles-new-lockdown-rule...

dannyincolor - He issued an order. Its not an ask. This isnt a where you live thing, this is a govt overstepping their bounds thing. Id have no problem with asking.

Platforms like Facebook are not realistically opt-in. Thats actually why social networks work. Its a self-reinforcing mechanism that makes it punitive to leave.

"going after women" just means being motivated to go out and form relationships.

pavel_lishin I didnt say they didnt. I was addressing the phrase.

I understand its not hard to get on the platform. Id just judge it on the content and presentation over the platform banner.

Heres that ted talk: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wSF82AwSDiU

Youre pointing out at this stage that btc is a non cash flow asset...yes most people know that. Same with oil and commodities and gold.

Who cares what people who borrow do with it. 5% or whatever is all I care about as an investor + getting my money back.

Its also been around for 3000 years and is far past its price discovery phase. Aside from that you dont hold gold in perpetuity, its for certain several year stretches and certain decades. I hold none just because I think btc challenges it (which is also the view of JP Morgan's latest opinion so in decent company).

Second comment here: Long cyclical runs can be timed. For instance golds decade long rip prior to the decline was due to etf introductions.

And no I dont think you do “got it”. You dont hold anything in existence forever. If youre not comfortable making shifts every few years (or whatever) and having to actually do some thinking from time to time then investing isnt for you.

Annual

Social networks have value thats not measured in traditional cash flow analysis. Thats why its less of a gamble than many think it is.

You can actually lend your btc at a pretty good rate. Over 5% on BlockFi. Rates are lower on defi exchanges because there is a risk premium as people figure it out and actually borrow.

A change in stock to flow is not "priced in". And gold is also a speculation, it still works/worked. Social value networks are quite sticky and tend to get stronger over time.

I actually disagree with you. With bonds you are virtually guaranteed to lose value over time as real yields are negative (against inflation). Thats a risk. Getting poor slowly and not keeping up with other rising assets is a threat to wealth even when you might feel safe from low vol. With bitcoin the long term moving average is up despite short term volatility and network effects are quite difficult to overcome. Bitcoin is a good holding if you plan to lock it up for 10 years vs bonds.

It was crazy to think this 5 years ago, now its less crazy, and tomorrow it will be normal. That my thesis and its also why billionaires are pouring in right now. If you asked me to hold a bitcoin vs a bond equivalent for long term the decision is easy for me especially knowing that global debt monetization is essentially a necessity at this point.

Paypal still does the credit card transaction. I know because their black box algo blacklisted me for whatever reason many years ago and I tried that. They have no customer support its just an abyss of a company and you are a statistic. Fine with me because I really dont use Ebay but I remember that.

They see it as replacing useless low yield treasuries with something else. Bitcoin also isnt a security. I understand what you mean though.

Id have to see specific examples as this is pretty vague. And I believe Dorsey said himself that misinformation is not against the Twitter rules (might have an exception for certain topics though). Probably because half the users on the site would be kicked off in a year.

Also think we need to be careful about the term "misinformation" as that can at times mean my opinion vs your opinion. For instance Fauci flipped on masks several times (im not hating on the guy)...but which time was it misinformation and not misinformation? This is exactly why people need to be entitled to their opinions in a free expression form. You can direct the conversation without kicking people off and censoring people. Another example is Twitter completely flopping when censoring the NY Post "misinformation" which turned out to be undeniably true.

What has he really done to merit being kicked off the platform? He just types in all caps and posts 50 times a day.

Im with you (in spirit). But we know at this point how network effects function and thats just not a practical solution. Leaving facebook, youtube, etc.. is similar to leaving your country and moving to a remote island in the middle of the ocean.

The solution is (partly) already here, its called breaking up monopolies which are illegal (and it would be wise to break up oligopolies). For instance YouTube has no real competition. 2000 million users vs what? Vimeos 1.5 million? Tech monopolies/oligopolies will always make the case that there is a rich marketplace of competitors by pointing out small fringe platforms that cant gain real traction but they know better internally and the stats confirm. Dont expect anything to change as they keep greasing your representatives. They spent record money on democrat elections this year and they expect their back to be scratched with lenient H1B visa programs to lower labor costs and lenient marketplace enforcement.

Don't believe I am unless you have a convincing argument I'm not aware of.

Because any of those are even close to competitors...there are 2 billion youtube users (80% of internet users).

Posting this reply here since the site says Im posting too fast at a lightspeed rate of 3 comments for the day:

I just dont agree with you that there is a "healthy marketplace" by all metrics youtube has a monopoly on video streaming. For instance Vimeo has 1.5 million subscribers...compared to 2000 million for youtube. Thats .075%.

This is exactly how California was a red state during the silicon boom and then turned into a blue state thereafter. Everything gets expensive and then people look to the government.

I think its a combo. Ive also been on reddit since the early days and never witnessed a tectonic shift like that.

This has all been debunked?: https://youtu.be/rri6flxaXww?t=4916 (from Phil Waldron)

I'm not here to deny elections but I dont think much of it was including the machines going live on the net when Dominion said they didnt. They witnessed the packet traffic to international servers.

With regards to "debunking" on sites like Politifact you need to be careful. For instance they say the Smartmatic technology was not used in states that are being challenged when thats just not true. The tech is the same but runs under different banners and is all owned by Dominion. Also they focus on if Hugo Chavez family owns Smartmatic as the thing to debunk. Obviously thats not the case or the main convincing argument that is even being made. Its that the technology was used to game elections in Venezuela and that adopted tech is used in elections around the world now (why else would it be acquired unless they wanted the tech). There are no code audits because Dominion claims IP protection. Does that mean election rigging is happening? Not necessarily. But people have every right to ask that question and you should ask it too no matter what side you're on.

Reddit had a bipolar shift around 2015 before the election. Thats when the main subs were astroturfed and gamed like I had never seen before.

When you have a lot of commits you are working off yourself while everyone else needs to get caught up on what you did and then contribute after. Its essentially twice (or whatever) as much work as a laggard. It becomes 1 persons project and the others are observing. For better or worse because just running with something is often faster than deliberating at every turn. But also can backfire in many ways. Its similar to group projects in college.

The most noticeable switch happened in 2015 before the election; it was like night and day. Propaganda companies were hired and went to town and all the default subs were taken over. Elections are every 4 years so they are on permanent hire now.

Correct. Reddit is ~75% (whatever) fake comments/astroturfing by hired companies and foreign operations to move policy and commercial goals. Its only going to get worse now that AI speech tools are so powerful. Entire articles with amazing context are written by computers now, they can obviously do the same with comments and probably are already in use.

Labor costs driving down is also from tech companies outsourcing many of their humans from other countries like India (tech companies are now the biggest segment of the economy). Not to get political but its why they donate 95% to the democrat party who goes to bat for them with maximum labor exploitation regulations (open borders, H1B visas, etc). They're not donating money for nothing.

I pay as well. They need to get these damn ads off my Xbox (same account as PC) which they have not implemented. Worth it though.