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You are thinking growth in product and opportunities. But that doesn't always require or translate to more engineering especially in the face of AI efficiency if that work to support that growth can come from AI (NOTE: I'm not saying it can; I believe some people believe and are acting like it can which is enough). For these people the new bottleneck to growth may be new market segments, adoption and integration which could mean more sales like staff - AI seems more of a boon to the non technical, AI hypers and sales pitchers IMO than it is to engineers. On a side note personally this makes the industry less desirable to work in - it devalues effort/intelligence/craftsmanship/product and values connections, marketing, status and "the hustle" a lot more.

As the supply curve of software becomes more vertical due to AI the argument that growth equals a proportional amount of engineering demand may be violated. We may see 2x growth in some companies even as the "people engineers" are cut. They could still be pursuing growth; it just that engineering costs are now lower or are less of a need to pursue that growth in general.

AI is the first technology that I've seen that has potentially hurt technology engineering demand rather than creating it; which is why the usual arguments don't always apply here.

My opinion is that it is because the measure isn't aimed at technical people. It's aimed at clients that just want to specify what they want -> then get what they want without an engineer. They are pitching to their investors, VC's, etc who just want to "will their stuff into existence" without engaging professional staff. Their end goal isn't augmentation, or a faster tool. It's replacement of expertise and capturing of that value to the AI labs. Similar to how I would love a new house to be magically built just by prompting it without having to engage anyone; or follow the process. Its great for marketing having the AI genie.

A better move would be to stop allowing people to graduate in CS.

Its a free market if you are the one paying for it solely. If you are willing to pay for the degree then the demand is there for them to sell you the product. Buyer beware sadly. Its a question of what you see the purpose of the course is - to prep people for the job market or to teach knowledge? If it is the former to you then yes they should at least warn people of the competition and the contraction of the industry they may face - they can decide if it is worth it for them.

For many on this forum if they are honest with themselves given the pace of AI and the future risk/uncertainty they may not have taken this risk on. They've misallocated their own funds which is always not ideal - and sadly expected when there is rapid change; not all investments pay off. The only thing I can say is if you are young the time horizon is there to invest in something else and get back on your feet. There is more to life then work IMV especially as you get older; and an investment in your career needs enough time horizon to pay off. For many a job is a means to an end - they may enjoy it but being able to earn a long term living is the primary goal.

In other countries where the education is subsidized for the purposes of skill building for the economy then yes I actually think it might be pragmatic for them to offer less places. Otherwise its tax money going to waste with a misallocation of public resources without the associated society wide economic benefits.

If the industry is to shrink this is the best way it can. Stop people entering while they are young and can pivot into something with better returns. Keep the experienced people who are older and may find it harder to pivot and had some "good days" to help them ride them through these bad times. I've seen similar dynamics in other industries as they slowly die/move on (e.g. manufacturing, niche trades, etc). A slow decline is better than a boom/bust. If it ends up that we need software engineers later training is an easier problem than mid career death for the juniors in a few years time.

Eventually the market finds a new equilibrium of staff to demand ratio. You prefer that happen sooner so people don't make bad investments of their time (e.g. studying the wrong course based on inaccurate market signals).

Searched online for it - there is this one https://github.com/fsprojects/fsharp-hashcollections. YMMV.

My personal anecdote when I talk to people - everyone when talking about their job w.r.t AI is like "at least I'm not a software engineer!". To give a hint this isn't just a US phenomenon - seen this in other countries too where due to AI SWE and/or tech as a career with status has gone down the drain. Then they always go on trying to defend why their job is different. For example "human touch", "asking the right questions" etc not knowing that good engineers also need to do this.

The truth is we just don't know how things will play out right now IMV. I expect some job destruction, some jobs to remain in all fields, some jobs to change, etc. We assume it will totally destroy a job or not when in reality most fields will be somewhere in between. The mix/coefficient of these outcomes is yet to be determined and I suspect most fields will augment both AI and human in different ratios. Certain fields also have a lot of demand that can absorb this efficiency increase (e.g. I think health has a lot of unmet demand for example).

I find algo performance is a consideration, but so is overall system performance especially in the face of concurrency, staleness, update rate, data processing size, consistency of data, etc. I think persistent collections are just another tool which is sometimes appropriate; and it has saved me over the standard Concurrent collections in some interesting cases. There are significantly faster immutable collection libraries than the standard F# Map class though online you can use if I recall from awhile back - still not quite mutable perf though. It tends to be appropriate to use for almost the opposite case than a single thread in a tight loop which is the usual benchmark I guess. As usual YMMV/depends on problem at hand.

F# has since gotten Functional State machines which make many computation expressions more efficient (https://github.com/fsharp/fslang-design/blob/main/FSharp-6.0...). Been there a while.

I actually think F# has received some "love" over the recent years contrary to some on this forum; that feature being an example. My view, maybe unpopular but in the age of AI maybe less so, is there is a diminishing returns to language features anyway w.r.t complexity and the use cases that new feature will actually apply for. F# in my mind and many other languages now for that matter is pretty much there or are almost there; the languages are converging. When I used F# I liked how it unified features and tried to keep things simple. Features didn't feel "tacked on" mostly with some later exceptions.

Last time I used F# a few libraries started adopting this for their CE's (e.g. IcedTasks library, etc).

Agree. Anthrophic in particular have been quite clear in what they are trying to do. Every blog post about every new model almost dismisses every other use case other than coding - every other use case seems almost a footnote in their communication.

The question really is what you think the long term direction of SWE as a profession is. If we need juniors later and senior's become expensive that's a nice problem to have mostly and can be fixed via training and knowledge transfer. Conversely people being hired and trained, especially when young into a sinking industry isn't doing anyone any favors.

While I think both sides have an argument on the eventual SWE career viability there is a problem. The downsides of hiring now (costs, uncertainity of work velocity, dry backlogs, etc) are certain; the risk of paying more later is not guaranteed and maybe not as big of an issue. Also training juniors doesn't always benefit the person paying.

* If you think long term that we will need seniors again (industry stays same size or starts growing again) given the usual high ROI on software most can afford to defer that decision till later. Goes back to pre-AI calculus and SWE's were expensive then and people still payed for them.

* If you think that the industry shrinks then its better to hold off so you get more out of your current staff, and you don't "hire to fire". Hopefully the industry on average shrinks in proportion to natural retirement of staff - I've seen this happen for example in local manufacturing where the plant lives but slowly winds down over time and as people retire they aren't replaced.

Domain knowledge and gatekeeping. We don't know what is required in their role fully, but we do know what is required in ours. We also know that we are the target of potentially trillions in capital to disrupt our job and that the best and brightest are being paid well just to disrupt "coding". A perfect storm of factors that make this faster than other professions.

It also doesn't help that some people in this role believe that the SWE career is a sinking ship which creates an incentive to climb over others and profit before it tanks (i.e. build AI tools, automate it and profit). This is the typical "It isn't AI, but the person who automates your job using AI that replaces you".

I think it's pretty clear that Anthrophic was the main AI lab pushing code automation right from the start. Their blog posts, everything just targeted code generation. Even their headings for new models in articules would be "code". My view if they weren't around, even if it would of happened eventually, code would of been solved with cadence to other use cases (i.e. gradually as per general demand).

AI Engineers aren't actually SWE's per se; they use code but they see it as tedious non-main work IMO. They are happy to automate their compliment and raise in status vs SWE's who typically before all of this had more employment opportunities and more practical ways to show value.

All I can say to that is "I hope so too"; but logic is telling me otherwise at this point. Because the alternative, as evidenced by this thread, isn't all that good. The fear/dread in people since the holidays has been sad to see - its overwhelmed everything else in tech now.

disrupting others careers is why you have a career in the first place.

Not every software project has or did this. In fact I would argue many new businesses exist that didn't exist before software and computing and people are doing things they didn't beforehand. Especially around discovery of information - solving the "I don't know what I don't know" problem also expanded markets and demand to people who now know.

Whereas the current AI wave seems to be more about efficiency/industrialization/democratizing of existing use cases rather than novel things to date. I would be more excited if I saw more "product orientated" AI use cases other than destroying jobs. While I'm hoping that the "vibing" of software will mean that SWE's are needed to productionise it I'm not confident that AI won't be able to do that soon too nor any other knowledge profession.

I wouldn't be surprised with AI if there's mass unemployment but we still don't cure cancer for example in 20 years.

They commoditized their complement to their hardware/infra, that being software. Good for them and the value of tech will shift to what is still scarce relatively.

Because of point 3 most SWE's are also hesistant to pay for software. The positive feedback loop of "I did well out of this so i will support others as well" is over.

When you are thinking your days are numbered any cost to develop software (even token budget) is measured. As coding becomes commoditized the ROI in code will drop of that code (capitalism rewards scarcity; not value delivered) and you suddenly become cost conscious. We are moving from a monopoly-moat like market to a competitive cost based market in SWE as AI improves.

I think AI has come as the industry was somewhat maturing and most frameworks/software had previous incarnations that mostly did the same thing or could be done adhoc anyway. The need for libraries as the models get better probably declines as well.

Not all open source but a lot of it is fundamentally for humans to consume. If AI can, at its extreme (still remains to be seen), just magic up the software then the value of libraries and a lot of open source software will decline. In some ways its a fundamentally different paradigm of computing, and we don't yet understand what that looks like.

As AI gets better OSS contributes to it; but in its source code feeding the training data not as a direct framework dependency. If the LLM's continue to get better I can see the whole concept of frameworks being less and less necessary.

In the face of LLM's it won't be rational for many people to open source their work. People don't want their work/effort being used against them.

Open source ended up disrupting the software profession; just not in the way people thought it would.

If we didn't have open source arguably developers would be more secure, way more secure, in the face of AI.

My theory is that this (juniors unable to get in) is generally how industries/jobs die and phase out in a healthy manner that causes the least pain to its workers. I've seen this happen to a number of other industries with people I know and when it phases out this way its generally less disruptive to people.

The seniors who have less leeway to change course (its harder as you get older in general, large sunk costs, etc) maintain their positions and the disruption occurs at the usual "retirement rate" meaning the industry shrinks a bit each year. They don't get much with pay rises, etc but normally they have some buffer from earlier times so are willing to wear being in a dying field. Staff aren't replaced but on the whole they still have marginal long term value (e.g. domain knowledge on the job that keeps them somewhat respected there or "that guy was around when they had to do that; show respect" kind of thing).

The juniors move to other industries where the price signal shows value and strong demand remains (e.g. locally for me that's trades but YMMV). They don't have the sunk cost and have time on their side to pivot.

If done right the disruption to people's lives can be small and most of the gains of the tech can still come out. My fear is the AI wave will happen fast but only in certain domains (the worst case for SWE's) meaning the adjustment will be hard hitting without appropriate support mechanisms (i.e. most of society doesn't feel it so they don't care). On average individual people aren't that adaptable, but over generations society is.

I wouldn't be surprised if it is only software and creative jobs that die. Whilst I still find it expensive to buy a house, get food, and the grunt work will still need labor.

What that means for society where there are extremely rich people who owns resources and capital, and everyone else is only valued for their dexterity and physical labor (vs skills) I can only guess.

I do think the AI labs have potentially unleashed a society changing technology that ironically penalizes meritocracy and/or intelligence by making it less scarce. The jobs left will be the ones people avoided for a reason (health, risk, etc)

TL;DR: There's many more ways to lose money or barely break even than gain from AI investing.

Because unlike previously:

  - You can't invest in these things directly (mostly private) so gains are at best diluted for retail investors.

  - They can take your job AND still be unprofitable (i.e. on VC money/subsidized).

  - Value accures to capital/companies using it potentially, not the AI labs themselves in a competitive market. In which case the gains will be across many industries and be diluted (i.e. not life changing if you invest enough to offset income loss)

  - They are exposed to the loss of income of their labor.

  - They don't have the capital and/or risk tolerance to invest accordingly.

  - The way to invest in these isn't obvious and is subject to unsystematic risk (i.e. can you pick the winners?).

Amazing how much investment has mostly gone to eliminate one job category; ironically what was meant to be the job of the future "learn to code". To be honest on current trajectory I'm always amazed how many SWE's think it is "enabling" or will be anything else other than this in the long term. I personally don't recommend anyone into this field anymore, especially when big money sees this as the next disruption to invest in and has bet in the opposite direction investment/market wise. Amazing what was just a chatbot 3 years ago will do to a large amount of people w.r.t unemployment and potential poverty; didn't appreciate it at the time.

Life/fate does have a sense of irony it seems. I wouldn't be surprised if it is just the "creative" industries that die; and normal jobs that provide little value today still survive in some form - they weren't judged on value delivered and still existed after all.

Indeed. I do wonder if the inventors of the "transformer architecture" knew all the potential Pandora's boxes they were opening when they invented it. Probably not.

No one wants to say the scary potential logical conclusion of replacing the last value that humans have a competitive advantage in; that being intelligence and cognition. For example there is one future scenario of humanity where only the capital and resource holders survive; the middle and lower classes become surplus to requirements and lose any power. Its already happening slowly via inflation and higher asset prices after all - it is a very real possibility. I don't think a revolution will be possible in this scenario; with AI and robotics the rich could outnumber pretty much everyone.

I think this is what the "circular financing" is all about actually. While you are in the 'picks and shovels' phase you want to use your high margins to buy up the value chain and become more vertically integrated. Effectively investing when the sun shines to diversify the company.

As a possibility for example I can see them transforming from a GPU based corp into a parent company for many full or partially owned "subsidiaries". They still manufacture chips to be "vertically integrated" but that becomes bread and butter as an enablement rather than the main story (e.g. Google TPU's). As their margins go down the value accrues to what they are owning (the business units/product areas).

Tax rates, cost of living differences, etc depending where you are in the world don't always make this a good salary.

Generally outside SV:

- If you are making $250+ it is at least middle management (not tech work) AND

- Only in zones where cost of living is eating this up (e.g. UK/Europe/Australia/etc can get to this equilvalent salary but costs for example for rent, food, tax, etc are much higher).

In most countries SWE is above average pay, but it isn't life changing and it still unfortunately has the boom/bust cycles.

I've met some very good engineers who have built some great large scale solutions who are on less than this salary often in non tech firms being outside of the SV area due to personal reasons (e.g. can't move due to family, too old to do the interview dance SWE has become these days, etc).

A big reason is relative advantage. The "I have to use it because its there now and everyone else is, but I would rather no one have to use it at all" argument.

Lets say I'm a small business and I want to produce a new logo for some marketing material. In the past I would of paid someone either via a platform or some local business to do it. That would of just been the cost of business.

Now since there is a lower cost technology, and I know my competition is using it, I should use it too else all else equal I'm losing margin compared to my competition.

It's happening in software development too. Its the reason they say "if you don't use AI you will be taken over by someone who does". It may be true; but that person may of wished the AI genie was never let out of the bottle.

Would agree with this and think it is more than just your reasons, especially if you venture outside the US at least from what I've experienced. I've seen it at least personally more so where AI tech hubs aren't around and there is no way to "get in on the action". I see blue collar workers who are less threatened ask me directly with less to lose - why would anyone want to invent this? One of the reasons the average person on the street doesn't relate well to tech workers in general; there is a perceived lack of "street smarts" and self preservation.

Anecdotally its almost like they see them like mad scientists who are happy blowing up themselves and the world if they get to play with the new toy; almost childlike usually thinking they are doing "good" in the process. Which is seen as a sign of a lack of a type of intelligence/maturity by most people.

I think whether you are right or wrong it makes sense to hedge your bets. I suspect many people here are feeling some sense of fear (career, future implications, etc); I certainly do on some of these points and I think that's a rational response to be aware of the risk of the future unknown.

In general I think -> if I was not personally invested in this situation (i.e. another man on the street) what would be my immediate reaction to this? Would I still become a software engineer as an example? Even if it is doesn't come to past, given what I know now, would I take that bet with my life/career?

I think if people were honest with themselves sadly the answer for many would probably be "no". Most other professions wouldn't do this to themselves either; SWE is quite unique in this regard.

Its amazing what the invention of the transformer architecture has achieved; even if the above doesn't come to the past it has sparked discussion of the above possibilities. For a simple idea/algorithm to have changed the world or at least people's future outlook to bleak dystopia; to create mass stock valuations, to justify the business layoffs that have happened and more is definitely significant and much more than I would of imagined just a few years ago.

I'm amazed at the sheer volume of resources allocated to the above so quickly for example; more than any other boom I've seen. Society can raise trillions quickly if it means not employing people I guess? Knowing basic economics I don't buy the utopia case with AI for the majority of people, particularly the middle class. To be clear most people I meet anecdotally (especially outside the tech space) are net negative on the changes AI is doing to their lives, even if they are in jobs like trades.

It has had a profound impact; probably much more (no matter which camp wins the argument, bulls or bears on AI) than its inventors ever thought it would. It makes me think of whether the people who invented this, once they see the end result, will be happy with their invention and the changes it will create in the world. If they aren't happy in hindsight it says something about the unfortunately all too common naivete of the techie in general and the impact of their work on society/economics/etc until it does eventually occur.