HN user
Florida, 2020: 63,217 domestic violence arrests
The British arrest stats subsume DV harassment cases, and the original Times reporting quoted a police officer stating that they are the bulk of these numbers. I haven’t found an apples-to-apples comparison in the US, but the FL number gives a point of reference.
Addressing the hypothetical person you’re describing: car infrastructure may solve some needs, but it is in direct conflict with other needs. Give every adult a guaranteed parking space just at home and at work, and the physical space required for that alone is an unbelievable double-digit percentage of the city area. Cities are so valuable because they pack a lot of amenities and markets (including your family’s schools and workplaces) in a compact area. Place everything significantly further apart, add more concrete and noise, and you’ve lost on all fronts: safety, charm and efficiency.
The general topic and some specific ways to estimate a correction are described under this term: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sequential_analysis
(Maybe I’m reading too much of a narrative into what you wrote, but–) I don’t think it’s causal like that; it doesn’t have to be. In particular, “wealthy, modern urban cores” tend to be self-sustaining economic force multipliers rather than parasitic resource sinks or vanity projects. Each specific megaproject might be one of the latter, of course. In general, however, I’d be careful about mixing up different public choice failures. How easy it is to: (agree on a fair way to) collect public money, identify and agree on some kind of public benefit, allocate resources to further that interest, execute projects without snags – etc.
AI CoT may work the same extremely flawed way that human introspection does, and that’s fine, the reason we may want to hold them to a higher standard is because someone proposed to use CoTs to monitor ethics and alignment.
It does not come about magically from monetary or even fiscal policy. The demand for housing (and other construction) was and is real. People find use for, and like having much space, while being close together. What was and is lacking is supply.
This makes me think that our formal [definitions] of "intelligence" […] and what we intuitively look out for, are really two different things.
Just two? You can name so many more terms in this concept cloud, e.g.: personhood, moral agency, consciousness, self-awareness, processing power, wit, autonomy, feeling-and-experiencing capacity, and so on… We don’t seem to agree on what’s separate from what, and yes, it would be useful.
“Transparency” as leaks from abuse is very, very different from transparency as a policy of easy access – and neither makes you necessarily better informed. In short, a biased selection of information can leave you worse off than having no information.
For one, finance is a macro force multiplier; it can make or break entire other industries. There’s also a bit of selection (global top) and survivorship (plenty of less visible non-success stories) in the wild money stories you can see out there.
To expand just a bit more, the map is very blurry. Nation states tap into some real and old sentiments, but are not just a translation of those to a modern political language. They are their own new political projects, with a shape that is a result of historical happenstance and personal ambitions of specific people. It is surprisingly malleable – depending on what common enemies appear, what leaders and writers become popular, etc.
Mars is on (or above) a wiped out Earth level of difficulty already
Counter: https://www.vox.com/2016/5/9/11502464/gilens-page-oligarchy-... (and it isn’t a left vs right thing, Vox is replying to a whole bunch of coverage from all angles; I’ve mostly seen Gilens&Page posted from the left).
I hope you’ll get a better answer, but a minimal solution is to use snscrape (https://github.com/JustAnotherArchivist/snscrape) to download a raw JSON dump of a user timeline. Some caveats: 1. This doesn’t work for all users (e.g. some accounts seem to remain deindexed after unsuspensions). 2. While you can get rid of 90% of the file size by removing fluff columns (e.g. related to processing media and emojis), keep a backup. When importing such JSON, I unwittingly did a lossy data type conversion, and it can be irreparable once the tweets are deleted.
$ snscrape --progress --jsonl twitter-user jack > jack.json
[PS With courtesy rate limiting, depending on the account size, you may then script a way to send each tweet URL for archival in the Wayback Machine.]
It’s not a closed system or a zero sum game. The average loan has positive expected value in terms of new, real goods and services being created – so it can be accompanied with an increase in nominal amount of money. The casino analogy falters here, because gambling is associated with, at best, only intangible entertainment value creation, and at worst, value destruction. Banks are somewhat free to create money, because they enable making new real value, and carry much of the risk for bad calls.
Yes. If the (overall) nominal money flows decrease but (overall) real economy size stays the same – to the extent that it’s going to change prices for no “real” reason – people and central banks are likely to notice and may react.
Central banks are tasked with stabilizing price levels. (Why? Predictability helps people make decisions and plans, and get rewarded for them. Caveat: price changes that originate in changes to real economy convey valuable information about real scarcities and surpluses. This one, kinda, doesn’t.) Prices are closely related to the ways money circulates in the economy – so CBs keep a close eye on these stats. (Why? In short, it’s a big factor in the simple monetary formula, MV=PQ, that is: overall amount of money * money velocity = price level * quantity of real consumption.) The fact you froze or burned a lot may influence how that looks, in turn possibly influencing CB decisions to put the finger on this or that scale.
Of course, the CB doesn’t know what you did exactly, it’s playing an aggregate game. Right now it would appreciate that you counteracted inflation – made everything a bit cheaper by not spending or loaning your billions for others to spend.
Finding new particles and studying astronomical events has a larger nugget of similarity with the psychology modus operandi than you may think. They’re studying rare or unique objects with extremely finicky measurement tools; enormous amounts of noise are statistically treated to extract a signal. Victor Ninov claimed to have discovered new elements, causing years of disappointing failures to replicate (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victor_Ninov). Even if the actual scientists learn their lesson, with some regularity popular science media announce that “the Standard Model just got overturned” or that this or that new quark was discovered.
Yeah, yet this bonduary traces a fuzzy and surprising route. Lives are on the line in microbiology, yet Bik uncovered thousands of suspect image errors there (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elisabeth_Bik). Semiconductor physics is relatively tangible and close to production, yet Hsu&Loo and others found that Schön faked his award and attention grabbing recipes (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sch%C3%B6n_scandal).
This is just not true. In the act that established SPR (https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/COMPS-845/uslm/COMPS-845...) there’s much about supply, little about national security, and next to nothing about military:
Sec 151(b) [The purpose of creating the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is] to reduce the impact of disruptions in supplies of petroleum products, to carry out obligations of the United States under the international energy program, and for other purposes as provided for in this Act.
Sec 161(d)(2) [Secretary of Energy may authorize a drawdown when] (A) an emergency situation exists and there is a significant reduction in supply which is of significant scope and duration; (B) a severe increase in the price of petroleum products has resulted from such emergency situation; and (C) such price increase is likely to cause a major adverse impact on the national economy.
Sec 161(h)(1) [POTUS can authorize drawdowns if] (D) the Secretary of Defense has found that action taken under this subsection will not impair national security,
Trimmed inflation measures exist, but this one is not it. They’re not used in a sneaky way, they’re clearly named “trimmed CPI”, “trimmed PCE” etc.
Coordination games and public goods games (which arguably model insurance) work best when people don’t adversely self-select, but coordinate around the social optimum (for insurance, when the risk pool is as large as possible). Whatever can orchestrate such coordination adds value. If people do it on their own, great, but some problems have characteristics like time horizons such that the coordination doesn’t happen without an authority. Yes, this brings in other public choice problems, but the trade-off is not necessarily bad.
In general, stock buybacks aren’t socially undesirable, but in this case would be more troubling I guess as they signal the company feels its R&D spending potential was already saturated.
Like the idea and execution a lot! Being IANAF, I like to refer people to chapters 4–7 of this lecture from Robert Shiller’s “Financial Markets” Yale course: https://youtu.be/_B_24GUWdSM?t=1269 (~40 minutes). The concept gives a solid insight into why and (broadly) how to diversify. With your work, a very minor note is that the chartjs pie chart always fully redraws for me from the 12 o’clock position on risk preference changes, which makes visual comparisons minimally more difficult. It’s purely cosmetic, because the table communicates this much better anyway, but maybe it’s an easy fix.
Probably not news to anyone who works with big data™, but I learned, after additional searches, that using (something like) duckdb as a CSV parser makes sense, especially if the alternative is loading the entire thing to memory with (something like) base R. This was informative for me: https://hbs-rcs.github.io/large_data_in_R/.
No it’s not. See e.g. https://twitter.com/matt_levine/status/1545152093501227009, https://twitter.com/MorganRicks1/status/1545404990457536512. In what meaning are you even using the term?
You can only be sure in hindsight which solution is comparatively or net good. Not all hard work done by smart and nice people turns out to be worthwhile. There are always trade-offs and cryptoassets bring them too. You have good reasons to be worried about centralization, but concerns that this technology empowers crime and totalitarianism, just in a different way, are valid too.
Great job! I can see this being very useful, at the very least in the academia. For example, in meta-analytic reviews, you often go through hundreds of papers, identifying, highlighting and annotating the relevant hypothesis test details, among many irrelevant weeds. Tools that streamline this process are very handy, so that you can easily come back later and grok your past work. Pen and paper works for an individual, but can drown you in piles of binders, and is less easy to collaborate on/share.
Some quick, very minor UI comments: on a large screen, workspace switching could be available immediately through single-click icons instead of a dropdown menu. Similarly, minimizing open stickers could be done with a dedicated icon instead of through the “…” menu (right-click suggested in an example in the quick start guide didn’t work for me). Otherwise everything feels pretty intuitive.
One thing I’d want to learn from the introductory guides is if adding the metadata (comments, notes, highlights, etc.) changes the original PDF file (always, optionally, never?), so that for example you’d be able to send an annotated document right away, or need to keep backups of unmodified originals, etc. (I strongly assume the metadata is stored separately, as PDFs can be unwieldy to modify, but you never know.) In general, exporting/printing notes seems like a natural feature. I like that it’s easy to export clips.
As a casual right now, I don’t have any input regarding the possible business model, but will certainly be interested in where you go with it.
Transfers can be dirt cheap with normal money (e.g.: Single Euro Payment Area), and your banking system can be transparent enough (the US one already is), if your regulating body cares about it. The average individual neither can change it, nor cares. If many people can’t help themselves but get fleeced, as happened recently on a large scale in the crypto space, at best you can struggle to recreate regulatory agencies in some kludgey crypto form. Most egregiously, all this is still worse than pointless, because the true differential value-add in crypto comes from enabling value flows for undesirable activities like crime, and it’s only possible thanks to horrible incentive system that rewards wasting energy.
Funnily enough, that SALT deduction was disliked by economists, as regressive, inefficient and mostly pointless. It was bashed by policy think tanks from all sides, e.g. Brookings, CRFB, Heritage, CBPP, and Center for American Progress.
Doesn’t this fit into “other adjustments”? Net operating loss is listed among the examples there.
For more numerous and granular data points, Eurostat doesn’t seem to measure this below country level, however US Census does. At least, I can easily find maps and papers which use that reference, but not the exact data table quickly. I know I had to grep and visual grep IPUMS dumps with similar projects before.
In the meanwhile, I’m biased to buy the hypothesis and have reasonable trust in the studies Caplan quoted, but a graph would be properly convincing.