spizder

200 day, ATR, ATR extension from the 50

That said, if it's possible to do better than random guessing

Yes - by always picking Up.

Random stock on a random day has 53-55% chance of closing higher. Over 5 days, you will be right ~60%

1996–2016: 53.3% of days were positive. 2016–2021: 54.9% of days saw gains.

Would love to use 'Duolingo for breakouts' for studying how stocks behaved just before they went on a 50%+ move. Successful traders spend thousands of hours studying these to build pattern recognition.

Love how you implement bet sizing, this is a signature of professional traders. How did you come up with the idea?

You mentioned stocks are "seeded random draw", but professionals don't trade random stocks - there is no edge there, price movements are mostly noise. You want stocks-in-play, stocks with heightened interest from investors on that day.

My suggestion is to manually pick interesting stocks each day and ask players what happens next. Don't hide names, so that players can asses market strength and group strength - 75% of success comes from these factors, and only 25% from individual stock selection.

https://www.401k.live/

Public dataset for exploring 50,000+ 401(k) plans holding $7.5T in assets.

You can look inside a company like Google and see what employees invest in (mostly 2035-2055 target date funds) or how much they contribute ($30K - likely using Mega Backdoor Roth)

https://www.401k.live/plans/google-llc/

There are several $0/year cards that give you back 2% on every purchase, so in comparison Saphire card gives you 2.5% on travel/restaurants and -0.5% on everything else.