shadowerm

How can one not understand that UBI is captured by inflation.

Its just a modern religion really because anyone can understand this it is so basic and obvious.

You don't have to point out some bullshit captured study that says otherwise.

She is obviously a true believer or very clever self promoter that knows her target market.

The real question is why is such stupid shit like this being posted here?

Anthropic is actually a great example of the free market working well.

To compare OpenAI to Standard Oil just shows the person has no idea of the business practices of Standard Oil.

Sounds like the current zeitgeist.

Seems like it should be useful beyond demos but we aren't sure what those use cases would be. Just need to wait for AGI and then..

I have actually spent about 20 minutes now and I can't think anything worth asking the model in this context.

I can't think of any effective marketing in my entire life that didn't involve repetition.

I think when people say they need to learn marketing they really mean they want to learn to skimp on spending on marketing.

Nothing anyone could come up with for 1 or 2 passes would really beat a white background with black text that just says https://nuenki.app that the target market sees 10 random times for 10 seconds.

I am hopeless at marketing because I think it is just that stupid at this scale of market size and being good at it goes against all my sensibilities.

I would look up how medical students use Anki.

The efficient part would be learning to make cards and decks efficiently.

I can't imagine going back to school and not using Anki.

I think many people have anxiety from a type of cognitive dissonance in this area.

They don't want to make friends, they want someone else to want to be their friend so they know they are liked in the real world. That is what is missing, not the actual experience of friendship. Even if someone asked them to be their friend, many would say no because it would take time away from what is really important to them. Netflix, Reddit, Doordash, Amazon, Hinge, and Pornhub.

How do I know this? Because it exactly describes myself.

Grand Transitions: How the Modern World Was Made by Vaclav Smil

Just a wonderful book.

Not saying I agree with the parent comment but the reason would be because the concept of the efficient market is overly simplistic nonsense?

It is really a great example of how much human knowledge is really just the repeating of a standardized, agreed upon orthodoxy that has little to do with reality. In the 21st century the "expert" in various forms reinforces the orthodoxy far beyond the 20th century.

Economics can't even catch up to the 1980s and dynamic systems.

Even then though, there is a giant global debit maturity wall from covid that needs refinancing at much higher interest rates that starts coming due in 2026 and 2027.

That is much sooner than fiscal dominance in the US. I suspect we can go to 100 trillion in debt at least without fiscal dominance. I suspect everyone will understand what fiscal dominance is in the 2030s though.

This liquidity problem from debt refinancing is much nearer.

Or read Sapolsky on how this line of though is simply stupid and ignorant.

No irony in this comment lol.

Embarrassingly, I spent even longer with Midjourney to come to the same conclusion.

It really isn't an issue with AI art but the limited, uncreative output of AI art models. I suspect many artists have been removed from earlier midjourney models too as well along with human input has softened the edges overall.

Then is just a matter of time that someone will comment on how you have to use stable diffusion and how much better stable diffusion is but that is because they mean "art" in the context of AI hentai.

Photoshop AI fill sounds like the greatest thing ever but the output is the same useless slop, not even as good as Midjourney. Only good for press releases and cherry picked best examples.

I don't like AI art in blogs because to me it is just signalling you haven't spent enough time with AI tools yet to understand these images look like shit. The other blog content then is framed in the same light.

I took off 18 months in my early 40s to study a few subjects that really do not have much economic value.

I would say it was ultimately a mistake. While I stormed out of the gate I got way too comfortable after a few months and ultimately lazy. The mistake was in thinking this wasn't going to happen for me. I would also say the subjective feeling of time was much too fast.

The upside though was that was my retirement basically and the realization that is not what I want from life is quite valuable.

It is worse than that though.

Credit markets don't work without inflation and none of this progress in the last 400 years happens without credit markets.

The age of this bond and the march out of the dark ages is not unrelated.

We also seem to suffer these automation delusions right now.

I could see how AI could assist me with learning pure math but the idea AI is going to do pure math for me is just absurd.

Not only would I not know how to start, more importantly I have no interest in pure math. There will still be a huge time investment to get up to speed with doing anything with AI and pure math.

You have to know what questions to ask. People with domain knowledge seem to really be selling themselves short. I am not going to randomly stumble on a pure math problem prompt when I have no idea what I am doing.

I just really doubt this when it comes to China.

Betting against China being able to build anything at this point seems pretty dumb.

Almost delusional I would say.

The problem is I thought kids would have been doing this 15 years ago already by using the internet to learn more and more.

This is not our culture. We don't have a culture that is really able to take advantage of the internet for this. Our culture plus the internet actually creates a type of learning disability for a huge % of the population.

A small % of people will use AI to be smarter than they would have otherwise. A much larger % of people will use AI to learn less than what they would have.

I think many here think they are Claude Shannon himself so using something like Claude is just below such a genius.

No, this is a stupid idea for people who don't know anything about boxing.

Effective aggression and ring generalship are subjective human judgements. Boxing results are varied because in a championship fight, many times rounds will be completely subjective.

If you made boxing judged by AI, the rules would quickly be gamed. I suspect it would turn into a contest of jab/output and completely ruin boxing.

What ultimately makes boxing great is a fight today doesn't look that much different than a fight 100 years ago. That is the whole fun of it.

It is a really a symptom of a culture obsessed with scientism. As if adding a bullshit layer of scientism makes things somehow better and "smarter".

It gives me value but I am not even sure it is $20 a month of value at this point.

It was in 2023 but I picked all the low hanging fruit.

More importantly though, where is all the great output from the people who are getting so much value out of the models?

It is all privately held? How can that be with millions of people using these models?

I agree and as a non-software engineer, all that matters to me right now is how much can these models replace software engineering.

If a language model can't solve problems in a programming language then we are just fooling ourselves in less defined domains of "thought".

Software engineering is where the rubber meets the road in terms of intelligence and economics when viewing our society as a complex system. Software engineering salaries are above average exactly because most average people are not going to be software engineers.

From that point of view the progress is not impressive at all. The current models are really not that much better than chatGPT4 in April 2023.

AI art is a better example though. There is zero progress being made now. It is only impressive at the most surface level for someone not involved in art and who can't see how incredibly limited the AI art models are. We have already moved on to video though to make the same half baked, useless models that are only good to make marketing videos for press releases about progress and one off social media posts about how much progress is being made.

I would guess you haven't spent much time driving in the winter in the Northeast.

There is an inherent danger to driving in snow and ice. It is a PR nightmare waiting to happen because there is no way around accidents if the cars are on the road all the time in rust belt snow.

IMO the question doesn't make sense.

You can't make music without learning an instrument.

Maybe the instrument is a computer with PD or DAW software but it is still a musical instrument that you have to learn to play.

There is no way around spending hours learning and practicing whatever instrument you pick.

What makes a computer hard to learn to play is that it has too many options. You don't learn anything playing trumpet for a month, then changing to piano for 2 weeks, then trying a new guitar that just came out for 2 months. That though is basically what many computer musicians do.

You need to pick the software setup and then spend a long time learning it and don't switch instruments.

You are taking effective birth control completely for granted.

It wasn't that long ago that monogamy was the default because no one wants to have a baby from a night of netflix and chill.

IMO you have the direction of causation backwards. Monogamy is not some child rearing optimization strategy. It was a social construct that evolved because causual sex at one point was incredibly expensive and now it is not because of birth control.

To believe this is paranoid is rather delusional really. You should try reading less political bullshit that is rotting your brain.

I would say it is an even deeper issue of credentialism vs education.

True education doesn't need busywork but credentialism does. The busywork is the filter for the credential.

Also, if a person doesn't write essays in college how are we going to have all these authors that turn 20 pages of ideas into 300 page books? It would ruin the whole book industry. It takes a ton of practice to uncompress an idea into a coherent structure using 10X more words than needed so the book is the optimal length for sale when printed.

I imported some french absinthe as soon as I realized it was legal again in the US in 2008.

I was so excited with the glasses , spoon and the ritual.

I couldn't even finish half a glass though. It was honestly the worst drink I can ever remember having. Just absolutely terrible. Really one of the most disappointing experiences of my life for how built up it was in my head.

I still have the glasses that are so fun to drink wine out of but I would never bother with absinthe again.

Even better if in a state with legal cannabis. Absinthe glass, cannabis lemonade and a shot or two of vodka. No green fairy placebo effect needed.

I think this is something much more extreme.

I work for a healthcare company and an email from a business customer today found its way to me asking if we use or plan on using "AI".

The person asking this absolutely makes business decisions and absolutely has no idea what they are talking about. It was clear from the email that all they know is "AI good", "No AI bad".

It would be like outsourcing to India if even business that makes absolutely no sense to outsource like restaurants were talking about outsourcing to India for no other reason than "outsourcing good". Of course, not actually doing anything, just the appearance and lip service as to not appear to fall behind the times.

Not to mention, I love working out.

If anything, I need more reasons to leave the house. Not more reasons to stay inside and be on the computer even more.

I do agree that GLP-1s can't be a free lunch. It can't be that powerful for free. Even beyond that, we might not know what we are doing with them.

It use to be standard for testosterone replacement to get a shot from a doctor every two weeks. This is an unbelievably stupid way to take testosterone. Blasting a super physiologic level of testosterone and then crashing over a two week period would be a good way to amplify side effects if that were the goal but we didn't know what we were doing then.

It is very unlikely we would have just randomly stumbled on the best way to take GLP-1s out of the gate.

It would be different too if we didn't know the secret sauce here is massive amounts of data and the jump process was directly related to a jump in the amount of data.

Some of the logic here is akin to how I have lost 30lbs in 2024 so at this pace I will weigh -120lbs by 2034!