sfn42

This is a claim about the future which the science does not support

There is scientific consensus that +5C is a doomsday scenario. Civilization ending. This isn't my prediction, this is the scientific consensus. And obviously it's not like +3C or +4C is a walk in the park either. We will be close to +5C within this century unless something changes drastically.

That's not a prediction that's a projection, just like if you're driving your car at 100 miles per hour then in an hour you will be 100 miles ahead. The difference is when it comes to greenhouse gas emissions we do not have a brake pedal and there is no friction. We can't take back the carbon. The only thing we can do, and the only thing we are doing, is accelerate. And on top of that, we're going downhill - we're accelerating whether we want to or not. And it's getting steeper the further we go.

Ice reflects an enormous amount of energy back into space, as the amount of ice drops the amount of heat absorbed by the planet increases. On top of that, the ice traps enormous amounts of greenhouse gases. In the poles and previously permafrozen tundras that are now thawing. As the atmosphere heats up it is capable of holding more water vapor which is also a greenhouse gas. Warmer temperatures also lead to forest fires, releasing huge amounts of greenhouse gases and weakening one of the few ways we're actually removing some carbon from the air.

These are some of the feedback loops in play causing warming to rise exponentially the worse it gets.

Nobody can know at all. We're talking about predicting the future.

Scientists predicted the future 50 years ago and we are right on track for those predictions. 50 years ago they said this is where we will be in 50 years, and here we are. Now you're like "but we can't predict the future" well we did. And to top if off you're waxing about how powerful we are - apparently not powerful enough to predict global warming, but powerful enough to stop it? When? Why aren't we doing it then if we're so powerful? Why are we just making it worse instead?

The difference between the problems you listed and climate change is that those problems are solvable. That's why we've solved them. They're also not nearly the same scale as climate change which is apocalyptic. You just cherry picked a few things we've solved and ignored the plethora of things we haven't as if that proves anything at all. How about cancer? All the other diseases we can't cure? Most of the world still lives in extreme poverty. Lots of people starve every day. Russia is bombing Ukraine. Meanwhile everyone's bickering about data centers and ram prices.

Climate change is not solvable. There is no solution. The only thing I know of that we might be able to do is spray enormous amounts of aerosols into the atmosphere hoping to block the sunlight. This might backfire spectacularly, also might not even work. It's a hail Mary we'll probably try when things get bad enough.

That's it. That's the only idea we have that might help. Maybe there's others I don't know about, but they're not good or we would be doing them already. Carbon capture is a joke, it will never make a difference. We would need a million carbon capture plants, we can't build a million capture plants.

Even if we completely stopped emitting CO2 today we would be completely fucked, and we're not doing that we are in fact producing more CO2 every year. That will probably change eventually but it's already too late.

Obviously nobody can know for sure, maybe we will get lucky and someone will come up with a genius plan that actually works. But that's far from guaranteed, as far as we know right now it's impossible so just assuming that's going to change is extremely naive. It's a thin sliver of hope it's not what we should be expecting nor relying on.

We have no good solution, and given the scale of the problem we have almost no hope of finding one. Do you understand how much atmosphere there is? We've been burning fossil fuels as fast as we can for centuries, now we are finally seeing the result of that and it's so slow that lots of people still don't believe it's happening. It's way harder to reverse.

Also, ice. Ice is important. Ice reflects sunlight and essentially stores cold. Less ice means more heat. More heat means less ice. Do you understand how long it's taken to build the amount of ice on the planet? Absolutely no amount of terraforming will rebuild the ice we're losing and have lost, not in thousands of years.

Yeah if we're back to sticks and stones we might as well be extinct as far as I'm concerned.

In not talking about baseless predictions. I'm talking about science. This is not speculation, it's not a possible future scenario, this is the world we currently live in and the trajectory we know for a fact that it is taking. We're setting heat records literally every year. All over the world. The polar ice caps, Greenland etc are melting rapidly, this is not speculation these are facts, these are things currently happening.

We know how much ice is on land, people have spent decades drilling the ice and calculating it's volume etc, we know it's melting because there's way less of it now than there was just decades ago and we know how much that melted ice will influence water levels.

We know the effect greenhouse gases have on the atmosphere and global temperatures, people have made scientifically informed charts predicting how the temperature will rise decades ago and we are right on track.

The prediction happened when I was a child, and all my life I've watched the prediction come true. The fact that there's still millions if not billions of people out there who are living through the same situation and still think climate change is a hoax is absolutely baffling to me. Just look at a fucking global average temperature chart for the past few decades holy shit man it's not a secret the planet is cooking. It's not maybe going to cook 500 years from now it's cooking right now and it's getting worse every year how can you possibly look at these simple clear facts and not understand that it's going to continue?

You guys annoy me so much holy shit open your eyes and just look at the world we live in

I imagine that 100 years from now(or significantly less than that) the ocean water level will be several meters higher, large parts of the world will be unliveable due to heat waves and wars will be fought over food and water. I doubt our species will last another 1000.

make a draconian law that forces all electronic devices to run approved software only

That would outlaw programming. It's just not feasible at all, anyone with any kind of tech literacy understands that encryption is here to stay. It's also necessary for the web to function at all for the things we use it for, such as banking.

There is no way to prevent people from communicating in secret. Even if they did strictly control digital communication people would just communicate some other way.

How else do you help people learn if not by giving feedback? As an avid helper in a programming related discord channel I need you to understand that a lot of the people who come to these places for help are incredibly stupid. It's not uncommon to have to converse with a person for 15+ minutes just to get them to give you enough information to understand what their problem is. Like they will just paste an error message or a big incomplete block of code and say "help". What are you trying to do? What isn't working? How is it not working?

They don't understand that we need information to help them. They will get offended when you ask them to elaborate. They won't understand the answer no matter how much you simplify it. They just want their problem solved with the least possible amount of effort on their part.

We're not space faring. We just put up satellites. There's nothing for us outside of the earth. It would take months of travel just to get to the useless barren wasteland that is Mars.

Maybe some day we'll be mining asteroids near Earth or something. Maybe we'll mine the moon. Going to/living on different planets is pretty much science fiction though. It's hard enough to live on the earth, it's gonna be 1000 times harder to live anywhere else.

I'd say who you really are is whoever you really are. If you're acting like a dick then you really are a dick, I don't care whether your financial situation influences your behavior.

Had a similar experience. Was at a party when I suddenly received a notification from our country's equivalent to cashapp/Venmo. It was about $450, so not a lot but enough to be significant to many people. About a minute later I get a call from a seemingly young man who's very stressed telling me he sent the money to the wrong number and asking me to send it back. I told him don't worry I'll get your money back but I need to contact customer service first just to make sure it's safe for me to do so. I wanted to avoid some kind of charge back scam or similar.

So I called CS, they said it was safe to return the money and so I did and the guy called back just to thank me.

Qualitative science is science.

Thanks for the detailed reply. This still seems ridiculous to me though:

[..] generally, when a mechanics lien is filed after the sale of the property, a mechanics lien may still be able to attach to the project property as long as the other requirements for the lien claim were still followed.

Just why? The whole point of a lien is to be able to sell the house to raise money to pay the debt. The house is sold so now he can pay the debt. If he had so many debts that he's still underwater then the lien wouldn't have made a difference anyway, as the older debts would have to be paid first.

The way I understand this, the homeowner entered a contract with a mechanic allowing the mechanic to put a lien on the property to secure the debt for the mechanic's work. Then he sold the property before they did so. It seems to me there are now a couple reasonable courses of action:

Force the homeowner to pay the debt as it is no longer secured, or they could offer up something else as collateral for the debt.

It makes no sense to make the new homeowners pay for the repairs for some stranger's car. That's just wrong. The only way it could possibly make sense is if they explicitly agreed to take over the debt as part of the sale. Clearly this isn't how it works in the real world, I'm just baffled at how stupid the real world is. This seems so easy to fix. The only explanation I can come up with is the insurance companies lobby to keep it this way because they make a fortune selling title insurance that doesn't even need to exist.

By your logic, IKEA is the highest quality furniture because it's in more homes than for example Herman Miller furniture.

And you're still missing the point that software nobody uses can be of excellent quality.

As if those people were going to be using the seat belts anyway

Yeah I don't have a problem with liens, I have a problem with unregistered liens. There needs to be a system for registering and searching liens, it needs to be publicly accessible and the lien needs to be registered before it's valid. In order to register a lien on a car you need the owner's signature, that can't work when the owner has changed. Mechanic needs to get the contract signed then report the new lien to wherever it should be reported, and once that's all in order they can start working on the vehicle.

If they try to register their lien once the owner of the vehicle has changed, it can not be accepted. You can't secure debt with a vehicle you no longer own. The lender needs to make sure the person owns the car and register the debt while they still own the car. And if they sell the car then they have money to pay the debt, and since they no longer own the car then their debt is no longer secured so that should trigger a requirement to pay the debt per the loan contract. Debt should be owned by people not objects.

The whole concept of debt that's attached to objects is silly. It can make sense in certain situations like a housing association that's taking up a shared loan and paying it down as part of shared monthly expenses, but for a car repair or similar it makes no sense. The person who takes the debt is responsible for the debt. If they sell the car then they pay the debt with the money from the sale, if the sale doesn't cover the debt then they still owe the rest.

It does not need to be any more complicated than this. In order for anyone to take over responsibility for debt in relation to a purchase, there needs to be explicit written and signed consent. So - I can buy a house including some debt if I know and agree to it, but I can't unwittingly buy a landmine. If the owner fails to resolve their debts when they sell that should be their problem not the buyer's. It's up to the bank to collect their debts from the person they have a contract with.

It's crazy how this isn't simple. Surely all they have to do is to tally up the debts secured by the apartment, then sell the apartment and use the money to pay as much of the debts as possible. Any remaining debt is the lender's loss, that's the risk they take when giving out loans.

If any debt does need to be tied to the apartment rather than the person, then it simply needs to be registered in a publicly (easily) accessible way. If someone fails to register their debt in a timely manner then it should be forfeit. It should be registered at the time it takes effect. Lender should be responsible for making sure the registration is complete before giving out the debt, if someone takes out a loan then sells it before the debt has been registered that's the lender's problem. They can't retroactively add a lien to my property because the previous owner took a loan when it was their property. That's not reasonable. If the lien is not registered then it doesn't exist, it should be that simple.

In practice, maybe some roofer/plumber/landscaper forgot to do that and now you have a problem you didn't know you had

Seems to me like this should be the contractor's problem. If they did the job 2 weeks ago fine, but if they come along 6+ months later after the house is sold demanding payment from the new owner that seems ridiculous to me. Surely if these Liens are supposed to be public there needs to be a requirement that they are registered as soon as possible.

Otherwise it seems to me like this is a ripe opportunity for scams. Buy house, have contractors refurbish it, sell it for a much higher value, then the contractors register their debts and now the new buyers or their insurance is on the hook for the refurbishment.

To me it looks like they've been pretty plateaued for a good while already? Sure they do marginally better on benchmarks or whatever, but to me as a user there's really not much difference between chatgpt today and chatgpt a couple years ago. Main difference is just added capabilities like web search, image recognition etc.

For coding you still need to be in control if you want a good result.

I think simplicity is good engineering. Bending over backwards to support pointless usecases isn't good engineering. Almost nobody would use this and the ones who would don't need to. Why put in the effort?

A 15x improvement over mammoth (spot on by the way) is still many times more capture plants than we have power plants. And there's limits to the efficiency of these facilities in terms of how much air they can consume per day. Not to mention the carbon costs of building and operating them.

Maybe I'm wrong, I'm certainly not an expert. It just seems like a hopeless case to me. Even if they make one significantly more effective than this Stratos you mentioned, we're still talking about tens of thousands of them to have a real impact.

Not really. In C# I use a parsing library for which I just write a class and then the library automatically serializes the JSON into an instance of that class.

I can do the same thing with XML. Of course it doesn't necessarily go that smoothly with all xml, but as long as the xml is fairly simple like a JSON document would be it's totally fine. It's only when you start to use all the features of xml that don't fit neatly into a class model that it starts to get annoying. But if JSON serves your needs then simple xml does as well. I wouldn't use it because JSON works just fine but it's not as bad as people make it seem, unless people make it really bad.

Your question betrays the fact that you simply don't understand the scale of what's happening.

Imagine a line chart. It displays average global temperature over millions of years. It goes up a little, it goes down a little, it fluctuates over time. That's the natural change. It occurs over thousands and millions of years.

Looking at the last few decades on that chart, you'll see a wall. It's going almost straight up compared to the rest that just meanders lazily. You can see a few other similar peaks on the chart many millions of years in the past, they generally correspond with things like apocalyptic meteorite impacts etc. And even then the change occurs much more slowly than what we're seeing now.

It's honestly insane to me that we're watching the world end and half of people are like "but are we sure this isn't normal?"

Yes we're sure. We double checked. Just look at any "global average temperature" chart and try to predict where it's going. This isn't the stock market it won't just randomly start doing something else. The movement we're seeing is directly correlated to our ghg emissions, and there's a lag - the effects of current emissions won't be fully seen until up to two decades from now. So even if we stopped right now it would continue warming for decades.

Warming also releases more GHGs. As poles and permafrost thaws, enormous amounts of methane are released that was previously trapped, further accelerating warming and acting as a positive feedback loop on top of our steadily rising emissions.

In short were fucked, we know it, and anyone who doesn't know is not paying attention.

If you actually look at the numbers of carbon capture its entirely obvious that it can't work. It's honestly strange to me that they even waste money on it, personally I think it's a distraction - "look we're working on a fix, now let us just pump up the rest of this oil in the mean time and we'll definitely fix it later".

In order to just offset our current emissions, we would need around a million carbon capture facilities equivalent to the largest one we currently have. For comparison, the number of power plants in the entire world is a few tens of thousands. So we'd need maybe like 50 times as many capture plants as we currently have power plants.

Like it's not even in the neighbourhood of realistic, it's just completely infeasible and I am sure engineers know that. You basically need to suck the whole atmosphere through facilities, and there's a lot of atmosphere.

Faster at doing nothing?

Maybe it's different in other languages, but if I ever see hand-rolled serialization in a C# project I'm putting replacing it at the top of my to-do list. There is pretty much no reason to do that ever, serialization is a solved problem. It's flat out stupid to spend extra time hand-rolling a solution that most likely ends up buggy and requires even more work in the future etc. I also often see people waste hours or days writing custom serialization logic for a serialization library, when they could have just written a new class in the shape of the data and been done in 5 minutes.

I did work on such a project once. There was a CMS web app which needed to sync data from a third party api to rebuild some pages every night. To do this they had a client library that pulled the data twice daily and stored it in a db, then the CMS app pulled the data through the client library. The API used XML and significant parts of this library were a hand-rolled xml serializer. It worked so I didn't touch it, then it stopped working. Spent days trying to fix it but the more I studied it the more I realized it was entirely pointless. Spent about 1 day replacing the whole thing with a simple little function that just calls the api, deserializes the data using a library and builds the pages. Remove the pointless DB, remove the giant legacy quagmire integration library, this project probably took months to write and I replaced it in a day, making it orders of magnitude smaller and faster.

In the end my solution wasn't used because of office politics, apparently they'd paid a significant amount of money to use this pile of trash and replacing it that easily would make someone look bad or something. So I ended up fixing the pile of crap in the end, even though I had a replacement ready to go.

Probably because there is some mildly decent reason (or very good, I don't know) to avoid them and it really doesn't matter enough to worry about getting around it.

Why would you want emojis in your password? It's a piece of text not meant to be seen, emojis are meant to be seen. Just randomly generate some characters and get on with your life. I don't understand why you care about this at all, it's such a pointless thing to complain about.

Why can't my password be a 5KB long?

Probably because that's just unnecessary. A few dozen characters is plenty, anything beyond that is just excessive.

I recently learned that you should add detergent for the pre-wash rinse as well. May dishwashers have a separate pocket next to the detergent pocket, often there isn't even a lid on it or the lid has openings so the detergent falls out as soon as you close the door. If they don't have the symbolic pocket you can just pour some extra detergent anywhere, like just spill some outside the main pocket or pour it into the bottom.

This allows the pre-wash cycle to get rid of most of the grease and stuff before the main cycle so the main cycle is more effective and the water is cleaner so the final rinse works better too.

Oh man I can't wait until you release a fully featured game engine less than 2 weeks from now that's better than both unreal and unity.