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sambrightman

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If the rate of infection in the general population was even lower, say 1 in 100,000, and they actually trialled 200,000 people, finding that the vaccine perfectly prevented infection, should they conclude this with high confidence? Or have I misunderstood you?

Besides, Dr Kim is quoted elsewhere as saying "the result could be due to chance" and the vaguely phrased "31.2 percent effective" is not encouraging. Add in the likely funding source of AIDS vaccine trials, the pressure to get results and the unknown mechanism and it doesn't look so great.