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CSPs making own hardware still needs hardware companies, they reduce the Nvidia tax but still need the likes of TSMC, Broadcom, micron/sk hynix, Marvell, the truth semi-companies. CSPs will not have the patents, IPs and talent to replace any of them.
Also, not sure how well CSPs inference stack is compared with vllm + nvidia. A lot of open weight models uses MoE, making the inference stack more complex.
China does not want to crash US economy. US economy strong means more purchases for our goods. But US want to crash Chinese economy by: 2018 trade war, 2019 Huawei sanctions, sanctioning at least 1000 large influential Chinese companies, 2020 Tiktok theft, 2022 total ban on GPUs, semiconductor equipment going to China regardless of end use, banning all sorts of Chinese goods such as EVs, cars, batteries, drones, even DJI cameras, 2020 fake lie about Xinjiang to implement full ban of anything made by Xinjiang, 2025 50%+ tariff on Chinese goods. I don't think building LLM was thought has important until Anthropic went on full China hating, banning anyone on a Chinese IP using the service, even companies headquartered in China's oversea offices. Did you know that a regular person in China trying to use Claude to ask some innocent question gets banned? Talk about everyone created equal and democratic world.
You leave us with no choice but to build technologies ourselves. If its bad for Anthropic, well, you could owned the market in China, oh well, you reap what you sow.
You need 64 H200 super-node for inference for kimi k3. You will not do inference locally. What might pop the western hardware bubble is Chinese GPU, memory, networking companies. But even in China, these AI centric hardware is not cheap.
No, Nvidia is worried about Chinese hardware stack. China is under sanction, what are they training and inferencing these models on? Even if this model might still be Nvidia chips, what about the next model. Everyone knows model and hardware companies are working together. There are a number of very competitive companies in China in this space. After they got this area sorted out, China will do training, inference and tokens entirely on their stack and export their entire stack.
Winners are hardware companies, GPUs,XPUs, HBM, memory, connectivity. Even CSPs are just compute renters, they charge a margin to make sure their hardware purchases can be made back. But given there are more and more AI CSPs, traditional, and neocloud, pricing competition is inevitable, and given the huge expense of hardware, CSPs are squeeze by the hardware companies and users seeking to lower their own costs.
Chinese solar technology is multiple generations ahead of US companies. First solar panels have a conversion rate of 17% while longi is 24.8% and demonstrating 26%. First solar should be out of the market without US government subsidies and protectionism.
WS 15 is already shipping with latest J20, its trust to weight ratio is above 10.
CJ1000A is being certified by 2028. It is equivalent to LEAP engines on fuel burn. WS15 and WS19 are all shipping today and have thrust to weight ratio above 10. CJ2000 is a 35-ton trust, genx fuel burn class engine, on track for 2030.
if you look at the price per gb of memory, at today's prices its only equal to 2014. People don't complain about memory prices back then. The reality is modern world just need much more memory. Before 8GB memory was enough, today my 32GB memory is 95% used all the time due to chrome. And my 2TB SSD is filled with 4K HDR videos. This is not counting massive storage needs by datasets, AI models, KV caches, and bandwidth needed for LLM inferencing.
US restriction on China is not just GPU, but total blockade of anything semi related all the way from fab equipment to final chips. Same restriction will work on any other country. But it does not work on China. Not only there are astonishing number of crazy smart AI researchers in China, but also the entire semi supply chain, from fab machines to GPU/XPU chips and software ecosystems, is advancing extremely rapidly. China will be the only country where every step of the AI supply chain from materials, fab equipment, lithography, 7nm to 3nm logic fabs, HBM, packaging, photonics, GPU/CPU/XPU, software ecosystem, frontier AI labs, power production and power generation equipment are all within a single country.
Maybe software people can get around this issue by not making every app a electron bloat? This is now more than doable now you got AI right? And it will save your job
cxmt is also selling their memory similar to the big three. No one hardware company in their right mind will sell their products not as high as possible after you learn how much harder hardware engineer and fab people work for.
if demand is too high, the market will adjust by adding supply. If Apple can't take the price of memory, why don't they make memory themselves. Oh no, the technical and manufacturing know-how is a barrier to entry and there is no talent available to make it. That is memory or semi companies' competitive advantages and their pricing power. It also takes Phd degrees to work at hardware companies. You can't have people doing leetcode for 2 months and todo apps and getting into the field and make 300k a year and hardware engineers wih Phds making 100k before this boom. It is long overdue for a rebalance of pricing power between hardware and software companies
memory is a commodity is laughable. Then software engineering is even more a commodity, the amount of engineering going into making memory chips the vast majority of people don't understand. There are a lot of software engineers getting this field after leetcoding and copy from hellointerview. Claude can write you an app in 30 minutes. Try build a lpddr5 dram chip in 30 minutes. Manufacturing know how itself is a specialty and barrier to entry.
And hyper-scalers, Apple, AI labs all will die if memory makers can't sell to them?
Lol, software company execs didn't see this coming. Fire all your experienced devs to jump on Anthropic bandwagon. Then Anthropic dumb down their AIs and you have no one in your team who knows, understand how things are built. Your entire company goes down. Your entire company's operation depends on the whims of Anthropic. If Anthropic raises prices by 10% per year, you have to eat it. This is what you get when you don't respect human beings and human talent.
Chargers don't charge at 1.5MW 100% of time. You have grid storage batteries serving as buffer. It can be charged at steady rate by the grid all the time. People need time to drive in and out of the station. The math works out really well.
They simply use a few grid storage batteries. Chargers don't charge at 1.5MW 100% of time. You also have people driving in and out of the station. The math works out really well.
BYD is shipping both charging stations and cars with blade battery 2.0 first half of 2026. Both economic and premium models can charge from 0 - 97% under 12 minutes. They are also building these charging stations right now and few hundreds are already operational.
there needs to be battery chemistry improvements. Otherwise, with existing batteries, charging at these speeds will cause too much heat and shorten battery life span. BYD is offering 1.5MW charging with increased battery lifespan and without increasing the heat dissipation requirements. Another improvement compared to current crop of batteries is charge curve. Charging from 80 to 95%, BYD batteries can handle higher power than current batteries at MAX
BYD did not go to specifics about their blade 2.0 battery that enables this, but there has to be battery chemistry and manufacturing advancements. CATL shared some details on their 12C LFP batteries before, they lowered li-ion mobility resistance, increased how the anode and cathode can accept more li-ions at faster rates. Another improvement for blade 2.0 battery is the charge curve is much better. 80 - 90 % can have much higher charging rates.
And the 2025 xpeng g6 is so much better than previous model, 5C charging battery, better ride, even better energy efficiency, better looks, better interior design, 30% of car parts are updated. And they delivered this update 2 years after the first model, when normally it takes other companies 5 years for an upgrade of this size. They have positive margins on a 17-20k RMB, 270 miles+, 350KW charging, FSD like autonomous driving EV, even though they have to price it this low due to ultra-competitive market. They can't do this without Chinese supply chain. Speed of iterations, innovations, fast time to market, efficiency is this all about.
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you mean how every single US tech company shares data with Google and Meta? How you browse a website, and, in an instant, ads show in Meta products? "user behaviour and device metadata [are] likely sent to ByteDance servers", lol, all your user behavior and device metadata are sent to Google and Meta servers. South Korea too afraid to say the same thing about USA. And surprised Pikachu face about all the downvotes in this thread on users pointing out the same thing about US tech companies, lol, propaganda and ethnonationalism is a powerful force
Next episode in this is Chinese companies produces HBM3 (they are already shipping HBM2), 7nm class GPU products competitive against A100 from multiple vendors, EUV. The US will realize what a monster they created.
Chinese companies are working euv litho, its coming.
Oracle did shut them down last night, if Google and Apple have to drop their apps on the apps store, Oracle and other providers have to drop them too. Btw, the app won't function even if parts of the infra is down. Btw, business is risk averse, they don't want to give any excuses for government to fine them. Bytedance should definitely shutdown everything and blocked all US users unless they have explicit, written and legally bidding instructions from the Justice Department. Only an executive order is enough. They asked Biden to give that, but Biden just smirked
Completely different, it is not a content ban but a sanction against entire company Bytedance. Capcut was also removed, how is the video editing app influence public perception and steal US data?
China gave foreign internet applications a list of rules to comply. And these are doable rules, u may not want to do them, but they are doable. That is why Bing, iCloud, AWS, Microsoft office, Azure, Tesla's cars, some of hosts critical and sensitive Chinese data are operating fine in China, even used by governments and state-owned companies.
And Google and Meta are currently earning 10s of billions of dollars from Chinese advertisers. And google and Meta can offer any other services to China that is not regulated by online community services.
Chinese citizens can visit Google and Meta apps using VPN, Google and Meta can transact with Chinese companies. Chinese rules just target online community-based services with a list of doable rules.
Tiktok's original wish is to replicate China's rules for foreign online services in China in the US. So have US citizens do the data and code, implement whatever censorship regime US government wants, store US data on US servers. Allow US government official inside the company to review and oversee code, algorithm and data practices. Allow US government kill switch to turn off the app if they see anything. This is reciprocity of rules.
But US is not giving any technical, doable options for you to adhere to. It is giving two options: either we kill you, or we give you a knife so you can kill yourself. China gives foreign companies room to live, so your workers have jobs and income, your inventor keep their inventions and private assets. US gives the foreign company two options: either we kill you, or we give you a knife so you can kill yourself. Your workers are out of jobs, what was a comfortable livelihood gone, your inventor's invention is destroyed, you will not get what your invention is worth, your private assets are gone. Or we can take your invention away from you and you lose all control of your baby in the future. If you don't see the difference, I have no word for you.
China doesn't kill your companies. Take away the invention from the inventor, take away assets, IP, technology, branding from the inventor, forcing the inventor the giveaway the baby they invented and worked so hard on. China just don't want you say certain things within its borders, but everyone can live, have a job, get paid, bring food to the table. US just want to end your company, make everyone jobless, and you can't say what you want to say anyway because everything is gone.
Yes, you can also force sale or ban. And you should do that, because the US has shown it is legal and moral.
Completely different. At least China's rules are technical and can be achieved. Bing, iCloud, AWS, Microsoft office, exchange, Azure are all in China. Of course, whether you want to comply the rules is up to you, but it is doable. Facebook can be in China if they adhere to rules, there were rumors they were going to offer a Chinese version of Facebook but stopped because of backlash, but the point is rule are technical and are doable.
Facebook and Google are still making tens of billions from Chinese advertisers selling stuff on their platform. And China never forced Facebook or Google to sell themselves to Chinese owners, so completely give up control on branding, IP, code, data and all assets etc etc.
US is not even giving you any technical rules to comply with. Tiktok's approach to US is replicate China's rules for foreign internet companies in China. All content moderation done by US employees, US employee work on code and data. Data stored in US based servers. But US companies operating in China, like iCloud, AWS and Azure, US employees can still get access to Chinese data for daily engineering operations, like debugging. Tiktok also offered US government appoint security and natsc officials on Tiktok senior leadership, overseeing all code and data practices. US government have kill switch to shutdown Tiktok if they find anything. Tiktok is perfectly fine with US government implementing the censorship to censor whatever US government doesn't like. These details are equal to China's practices.
But US is not allowing that, it just sell yourself 100% to US owner or get banned. And ban is much more draconian than Chinese ban. Chinese citizens can visit FB using VPN, and companies can transact with FB and Google, hence billions of advertising dollars for these companies. US ban targets all transaction with Bytedance, hence Google, Apple and Oracle are completely geofencing US users that even US user using VPN can't access Bytedance services. And Chinese regulations target specific type of products, Meta's FB main app may not be in China, but FB advertising is. US ban targets Bytedance, the entire company. Capcut, a video editing app is also banned in the US. What data does a video editing app collect? How does a video editing app affect public discourse and opinions? How is Capcut a national security threat? What evidence is there?
US is not offering you a chance to comply, it is offering you a knife to kill yourself, and say here, you got options, why don't u kill yourself. Anyone who think it is not an insult is just, I have no words for you. China gives foreign companies room to live, so your workers have jobs and income, your inventor keep their inventions and private assets. US gives the foreign company two options: either we kill you, or we give you a knife so you can kill yourself. Your workers are out of jobs, what was a comfortable livelihood gone, your inventor's invention is destroyed, you will not get what your invention is worth, your private assets are gone. Or we can take your invention away from you and you lose all control of your baby in the future. If you don't see the difference, I have no word for you.