rkosai

Well, there's the War of the Spanish succession, where the heir to France gave up his position to be the King of Spain.

Sort of. :)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_of_the_Spanish_Succession

Based on all these "rational actor" responses, I take it none of you purchase insurance?

What about the case for a startup? Say, you raise $500k but you "know" (for the sake of argument) you need a million to make the thing work.

No gamble: 0% chance of success * 53%

Put it all on black: non-zero chance of success * 47%

I don't imagine this would go over very well with investors, though.