questhimay

China is not neutral

China supporting Russia in massive military expansion, US says. Beijing helping with drone production, space-based capabilities and ballistic missile production https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/12/china-supporti...

China is lead by a dictator

Biden calls Xi a dictator https://www.reuters.com/world/biden-calls-xi-dictator-after-...

Germany's foreign minister called Xi Jinping a “dictator” https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/19/china/china-germany-xi-dictat...

Why would ou think it's "dumb", when we've already had TikTok ban, tariff on Chinese EV, and chip ban on China?

It's very clear that China is an enemy that has to be dealt with by US

Putin thought the war was only going to be for a few days - according to research by the think tank RUSI, when Vladimir Putin began his invasion, he expected to take control of Ukraine within 10 days https://www.iwm.org.uk/history/how-Putin-lost-in-10-days. He couldn't pull out of the war subsequently in fear of losing control and face. Xi is an idiot, but even he can see his potential downfall, given Russia's failure.

Ukraine is still holding its own despite Russia's hypersonic missile prowess.

If you are talking about a blockade, as we've seen from Russia's invasion, Russia's world's second best navy is already powerless against Ukraine's drone attacks and missiles. And US has already warned China on a potential blockade as being very high cost.

Meatgrinder hasn't exactly worked for Russia yet. Especially if the Chinese soldiers are all sitting en mass on large, slow moving boats going across a 100 mile strait.

Unless you think the China's plan is to fill the Taiwan straits with so many dead bodies/boats so quickly, that it will create a corpse bridge for tanks to roll on.

My point about birth rate is that China does not have enough men in the right age to fight a protracted war. Especially if the men are only sons.

And it's not China vs Taiwan straight up. It's China vs Taiwan, US, Japan, Australia, parts of nato.

China imports vast quantities of goods, so yes, debt matters.

China can't afford to throw away only sons, and have them sink into the bottom of the ocean. Families would revolt pretty quickly. As we saw from the millions of protestors in Hong Kong in 2019, and the violent protests in Shanghai in lockdown 2023, Chinese citizens are capable of grouping together in mass numbers.

China may have the factories for manufacturing, but they need materials and money to keep a war going. That's hard when they are broke, and also supporting other dictatorships, such as Russia's war effort, Iran, North Korea.

China is not going to be able to invade Taiwan, it's too old and too broke to do so. Too old as in its demographics will be 30% over 60 years old in 10 years. Too broke as in the local governments are bankrupt, and the central government is barely hanging on, so much so that it had to issue ultra long bonds in 2 of the last 3 years. Keep in mind that Chinese government differs from other governments in that the other governments source of main revenue is taxes. Whereas the Chinese government has the revenue from all the state owned enterprises which are monopolies in major industries such as banking and oil. so if the Chinese government still can't get enough revenue from those state owned enterprises to cover existing debt payments, it is pretty fucked.

It's also hard to attack an opponent, when the opponent has been preparing for a number of years, with its allies. US, Japan, Australia, India.

In case for China, there are numerous reasons, from rapid urbanisation which meant the spread of impermeable concrete surfaces and reduced natural wetlands and marshes that had in the past absorbed rain. To Soviet-era urban drainage systems of shallow buried pipes leaves cities vulnerable to waterlogging during heavy rain.

here's a video of how crazy flooding gets in China https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cfhd7bVEnh0.

Meanwhile, in China, there are yearly flooding in major cities, where the water can't be drained through drainage due to poor planning, corruption in purported drainage fix, and now no local budget for any fixes. these floodings affect millions of Chinese each year.

For example, just in one instance, 127 million people has been affected in Guangdong province this April.

there's no reason for you to reply to maxglute. they never quote anything for reference, preferring to hallucinate things out of thin air. and they always want to have the last word, which is a sign of immaturity/insecurity.

Sanctions on Russia, it's in the article

"Russia had been forced to repeatedly establish new supply chains for acquiring chips. As sanctions disrupted existing smuggling routes, it had set up new ones, likening these outcomes to a game of “whack-a-mole”, that was frustrating for both Western governments as well as “supply-chain managers at Russian missile and drone factories”.

The biggest failure in enforcing the controls is not that Russia continues to have some success in smuggling — that’s not a surprise — but that China continues shamelessly to sell Russia so much via normal trade routes."

Huawei is basically Chinese government's military tech arm, so a few reasons might be - increased Chinese military support for Russia, cold war tension ratcheted, US view China as very weak right now and want to increase the pressure

the 5.2% is just a figure the bureau of statistics made up to make sure they hit xi Jing ping's goal of 5% for the year.

even china bull Ray Dalio thinks China in a lost decade or more https://www.forbes.com/sites/williampesek/2024/03/29/ray-dal...

world's biggest market by population perhaps, but out of the 1.3B population for China, 700M of them make less than $100/month. 200M makes around $1000/month, but with the recent wage cuts across industries, more like $500/month for most middle class.

might have to do with the increasing blatant Chinese military supply to russia - China Providing 90% of Chips Used in Russia, Despite Sanctions

https://www.asiafinancial.com/china-providing-90-of-chips-us...

how would you explain these then?

In what appears to be a first, a former employee of ByteDance, TikTok’s Beijing-based parent company, has outlined specific claims that the Chinese Communist Party accessed the data of TikTok users on a broad scale, and for political purposes.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/08/tech/tiktok-data-china/index....

TikTok Confirms Some U.S. User Data Is Stored In China

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexandralevine/2023/06/21/tikt...

Former TikTok exec: Chinese Communist Party had “God mode” entry to US data

https://www.malwarebytes.com/blog/news/2023/06/former-tiktok...

There's a rumor that Chinese government is going to significantly devalue the yuan https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-29/yuan-deva..., to try to boost export decline from March. https://apnews.com/article/china-trade-exports-imports-b25c2....

When that happens, oh boy, that's going to be so much money flowing from China to US that it's going to make the dollar even stronger