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It's amazing how quickly Fable went from 'Game-changing model that needs to be banned' to 'Yeah it's alright, but OpenAI is also just as good and there are a couple of good open weight alternatives that are equivalent for almost everything'

The hype cycles are shortening, perhaps we really are reaching some kind of plateau this time (famous last words)

Interesting, so point 2 means that a lot of the hardware being installed now won't be able to run the frontier models of 2029? How does that change the demand for compute/models in the future, I can imagine that even if OpenAI/Anthropic have a moat in 2029 there will be so much older hardware and such a hangover from that investment boom that there will be very little installed capacity that can run it

It's just much more thorough and spins up a lot of subagents to basically do a lot more E2E testing. Not necessarily smarter, imo you could get the same result with a lesser model by procedurally prompting, but a lot more compute and orchestration.

Fable feels like a slightly more advanced 4.5/4.6 (less verbose than 4.7 and 4.8) with more adversial work checking. And a lot more compute to be more thorough from the first prompt. I feel it would be possible to get pretty much the same results with 4.6 with enough back and forth iterations. It kind of makes sense to me that this is the 'magic' behind Mythos and its cyber capabilities too. Just a massive iterative loop and really going into a lot more detail on edge cases.

It feels to me like Fable is just a slightly more advanced Opus 4.8 (or 4.6?) but with this 'adversarial' self-challenging/checking of work and a more compute to really hunt down edge cases or to spin up many sub agents using lesser models. That's what makes it feel like a big jump, but I think the results wouldn't be so different if you manually challenged 4.6 with enough iterations of logs, screenshots, and follow up questions.

It's a social network that became socially acceptable to browse at work. It has all the negative attributes associated with a social network and none of the upsides (apart from the occasional recruiter message).

Second complete outage on railway in 2 months for us (there was also a total outage on December 16th), and many issues with stuck builds and other minor issues in the months before that.

Looking to move. It's a bit of hassle to setup coolify and Hetzner but I have lost all trust.

Thanks - I also turned it off. I guess it's a marketing thing for them, but it feels like it goes against the ethos of the company. Particularly given the fact they are clearly aware of this as they put it in the 'Privacy' section.

My Google Maps algo will be massively confused by my 'Directions' search: Sofia, Bulgaria to Kolkata, India on a Friday afternoon in January