GPT-5 is behind schedule 2 years ago
100X efficiency improvement (doubtful) still means that costs grow 200X faster than benchmark performance.
HN user
100X efficiency improvement (doubtful) still means that costs grow 200X faster than benchmark performance.
O3 has demonstrated that OpenAI needs 1,000,000% more inference time compute to score 50% higher on benchmarks. If O3-High costs about $350k an hour to operate, that would mean making O4 score 50% higher would cost $3.5B (!!!) an hour. That scaling wall.