oro44

As I’ve said in my other post, I’m very confident that imagination is the true bottle neck.

Writing lines of code? Nope. If one can imagine… trust me, writing lines of code is trivial.

Most people have no imagination. So sure they can produce more stuff with llm’s but it’ll just be mostly garbage.

Perhaps they can produce some peculiar workflow that works ‘for them’. Sure. But I think about the money invested into the LLM-based projects and I highly doubt we are going to see any returns that justify the spend. What we are going to see is a felling on the profession of software engineers, since the pipe dream of AGI isn’t coming and imagination is scarce.

Most of this “AI” stuff is dead on arrival.

Most People do not care about the technology and frankly they don’t want to know about it. They want great experiences. That’s it.

Technologists seem to have a reallyyyy hard time getting it.

Stating the obvious but spraying and praying is not a strategy

Yeah and frankly the innovation would occur irrespective of llm’s.

Would it be harder? Sure. And perhaps the difficulty adds an additional cost of passion being a necessary condition to embark on the innovation. Passion leads to really good stuff.

My personal fear is we get landfill sites of junk software produced. To some extent it should be costly to convert an idea to a concept - the cost being thinking carefully so what you put out there is somewhat legible.

That’s exactly what I was referencing :)

Well it’s mostly explained by the fact that most people lack imagination and can’t hold enough concepts about a particular experience to think about how to re-imagine it, to begin with.

Oh and sadly, llm’s are useless for the imaginative part too. Shucks eh.

People just don’t learn do they?

It’s truly amazing. This is why I’m not surprised people are ‘blown away’ by llm’s. They were never truly intrinsically intelligent - they were expert regurgitators of knowledge on demand.

Steve already suffered from immense scar tissue of starting with the technology. And yet.. this wisdom blows over peoples minds. More fool them.

Exactly. This is f"cking hilarious.

"oooh Im afraid of doxxing myself", wtf? lmao!

Agreed.

Im very confident the experts in every field are not all that impressed by LLMs, relative of course, to those who were 'meh' in the first place. Experts meaning those who actually understand the content, not simply regurgitate or repeat it on demand.

I'd even go as far as to say there are many out there who have a feeling of disdain of the experts and want to see LLMs flourish because of this.

"But those startups that are able to harness the productivity gains to deliver more complete and polished solutions that solve real problems for their users will be unstoppable."

They'd be unstoppable irrespective of LLMs. Why do you think Zuckerberg acquired Instagram? He literally tried copying it and failed. Instagram at the time was absolutely tiny in terms of pure labour, relative to Facebook.

Most people on hacker news are missing the point. Productivity gains for the sake of perceived productivity gains is not what creates economic value. Its not the equivalent of a factory all of a sudden becoming more productive in producing more of the same stuff. Not comparable at all.

I thought it was well known at this point that the best usage happens outside of peak hours?

"Here's an evil business idea: Use the LLMs to identify the users most likely to be "vocal influencers" and then prioritize resources for them, ensuring they get the best experience. You can engineer a bubble this way."

Its quite likely this is already happening buddy...

The 'random' degradation across all LLM-based services is obvious at this point.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_India_Company

Some companies used to have a full-blown army: "...twice the size of the British Army at certain times.[5]"

Before being nationalised of course. Nationalisation is always the end-game when a corporation becomes too powerful.

I dont get the craziness at all.

A firm that is led by people who can envision, very clearly, revenue-generating and cost-reduction projects - wins. Writing code by hand is absolutely irrelevant. Who fucking cares. The former is what matters.

Code generation acceleration only matters when those pre-requisites are met. How did Apple go from the verge of bankruptcy to where it is today?

All Im seeing is most people are not smart at all - no wonder they are so impressed by LLMs! They can't think straight. I only see this become even worse over-time. Perhaps this is the stated goal.

lol its comical. truly comical

"And no one wants to admit the latter two are problems."

Im working on building something to address this. That's all I'll say lol.

I dont use them.

The counter point to this is Apple who have not invested barely a dime in LLMs. Their stock price has not been crushed at all, quite the opposite in fact. They focus on the good stuff. Perhaps that's the luxury of living off the vision and leadership of someone who died many years ago.

Personally I believe the stock market is incredibly, incredibly shaky. Investors are now in full-fear mode, it doesn't matter what news Nvidia etc print - if customers of OAI and others, are not seeing a meaningful INCREMENTAL increase in revenue generation or increase in cost-reduction (aside from white-washing it with lay-offs from insane hiring in the past).

RE. stupidity - it is stupidity for the most part. Without the stupidity in quantity of demand, there is no market for LLMs from enterprise et al.

Wanna know how stupid it is? Someone I know who works at Blackrock as a portfolio manager pretty high up is all of a sudden being forced to learn how to code and use LLMs to code. Yes you heard me right - this behaviour is expanding out of the software engineering profession.

Its absolutely nuts.

Interesting stuff. Thx for sharing!

Broadly speaking, LLMs are destined to fail.

Why? Because all the folks involved have created a technology in search for a problem to solve. That never, ever works. Steve Jobs of all people left this piece of wisdom behind. Its amazing how few actually apply it.

The internet was never this - its origins go back to the need to able to transmit data - darpa. And this is what we still do now...

irrational exuberance

Hook line and sinker..

Right so you are going to be left behind whilst the ground keeps shifting under you, given the models are non-deterministic and continuously changing?

There was a big rush of prompt engineers. Where are they now? Nobody even referse to 'prompt engineering' anymore.

The best thing to do is wait for steady-state. Whats going on is insane... a slow implosion of the code base.