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offnominal

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AI 2040: Plan A 11 days ago

falsifiable claims that are, well, false

Oh, I didn't realize it was 2028 already!

First Proof 6 months ago

Wrong, as the questions were poses to commercial AI models and they can solve them.

Why does this matter? As far as I can tell, because the solution is not known this only affects the time constant (i.e. the problems were known for longer than a week). It doesn't seem that I should care about that.

Did they reduce thinking effort on Codex too? It seems to have become significantly worse in the past couple of days. It keeps making dumb mistakes (that it wouldn't earlier), so my chats are much longer to get it to fix them. That might be more expensive for OpenAI (and me!).

I quite enjoyed it. You're in a different part of the world and only have access to lead level data from your local population. You spot an anomaly in a cultural subgroup. Then through extensive guesswork you pinpoint a cause to a specific additive to a spice often consumed by folks in this culture. I would say that qualifies as a detective story.

But anyway, lead chromate is not a pesticide. The level of harm from pesticides containing heavy metals vs lead chromate is different. You're probably much much less likely to see lead poisoning levels in your blood just by consuming food treated only with pesticides.

The survey was done across California -- not just SF and LA. Either way, wikipedia claims that 37.7% of SF residents were born in California which is slightly closer to 50% than the 25% figure you quoted (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_San_Francisco#...).

The survey also states that "Most participants (87%) were born in the United States. ... Two-thirds (66%) were born in California."

I still don't understand why the survey is statistically impossible.