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noddy1w

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A good thought experiment is to imagine a hedge fund which invests in the s&p500 all the time, but once per year takes all its capital and sells options with a 5% return and a roughly 1/20 risk of ruin. On average they beat the s&p500 by 5% every year, and only explode once every 20 years on average.

If you could charge 2 and 20 and smoothtalk investors the chances that you get rich before it explodes are pretty good.

Differentiating an investment with a negligible chance of going to zero (like the s&p500) from one with a small but nonzero chance is difficult until one of them explodes.

Medtech is annoying because of the primary focus being documentation. I spend much of my day writing stuff that noone cares about for people who will never read it. Doing this on paper is slow. Doing it on a computer is even slower. Finding a terminal and filling in structured forms is a pain in the ass when I want to be seeing patients, doing procedures etc. Using things like google glass and offsite scribes is a good way to do this.