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mikestorrent

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AI 2040: Plan A 12 days ago

Yes, and we haven't even really begun to nail down computer-use agents yet (can you believe they're still basically just OCR'ing screenshots?)

Once we have something that experiences a desktop interface more like a human does, an entire swathe of tooling that has heretofore been nigh-impossible to automate moves into the fold, and that'll be another explosion of folks finally getting to join the agentic workflow world on their industry specific apps...

AI 2040: Plan A 12 days ago

Yes, this one. Look at our governance; look at our coordination-at-scale; look at our collective problem solving. It's abysmal, beyond hope. If we have global scale problems, we are not capable of solving them effectively. We are literally not intelligent enough to handle the problems we are creating. Between rivers of garbage and CO2 levels and war, we have proven ourselves to be woefully unintelligent at the scale needed. If we are lucky, our thin window of survival depends on getting a hell of a lot smarter, real quick.

Consider this: All that hardware that's going into those datacentres right now? In 5 years or so it'll all be on the secondary market... an influx of cheaper compute like you've never seen.

AI 2040: Plan A 12 days ago

Yes, and RMS was correct in his Right to Read and so many other things - we're seeing the slow death of the never-enshrined-in-law right to compute. Luckily open-source is big enough to slow this down; we should all be pretty amazed and appreciative that there even are open-weights models at all, out there, because it is a profoundly democratizing thing.

When you press the gas pedal in your car down (which used to just be a cable to the throttle body), does your car instantaneously increase in speed to match the pedal position?

All you're doing is letting more air in - the RPM is a function of the power the engine generates; more fuel and air than is currently needed for the current load at the current speed = increasing RPMs.

If you put the clutch in, a little blip of the gas is all that's needed to get the RPM quite high very quickly. The moment there's load on there, the same blip will not do very much at all.

Sounds like an answer from a non-parent, honestly. There's a lot more to it than that, and virtually every couple I know with children thought about it a lot before going ahead.

The number one reason is because they see other families and the love and joy that their children bring into their lives. This is inspiring, and brings people around to making the decision, even if they know the sacrifices they will have to make.

Boiling it all down to pure biology is stripping parents of agency to fit your worldview.

So they should prorogue the entire Parliament and they all take a month off together. Why the fuck should some particular province or riding or whatever miss out on representation on an important issue just because their rep is out for a week on an island somewhere? Could they not have a proxy / surrogate??

The trouble is that most conventional ways of building a new service are trivial to block. What is needed now is unstoppable messaging and social networking built on top of existing services and protocols that won't be blocked right away, services with more legal protection - like email with GPG, or some kind of steganographically encrypted layer on top of Instagram.

Imagine all I ever posted was cat pics... unless I have your public key and then all of a sudden those pics are decoded into messages of dissent

It's mostly a lack of properly descriptive words in the language. I think "totalitarian liberalism" or the "managerial state" is probably closer to what we're talking about here. Power is not concentrated in one individual; responsibility and accountability are diffused so far that it is impossible to find someone who actually can do or change anything. "Rational systems" of business process and rigour serve to remove individual wisdom and intuition from the equation entirely. Adding AI on top of this will probably only further entrench it - walls of words protecting people from really improving anything meaningfully.

In some ways, the concentration of power in a dictatorship might be better, if the dictator was well morally aligned with the people. Trouble is, the people are seldom even morally aligned with each other in a unified way, so a dictator cannot easily represent their conflicting interests. Representative democracy does at least take a step towards solving that issue.

Knoppix 22 days ago

This worked for me, once. Putting drives in the freezer has worked 3x. I miss that... when an SSD dies it's just dead

T400 is definitely cool, I have a T420 I love. But that Aptiva... man, when those were new, they were full of more bloatware than any other machine I'd ever seen. I made bank in high school just reinstalling windows for people on those... it was like 5x faster when I was done with it, easily. I think it's made it impossible for me to see that as a beauty, though.

I tried to read this writeup, but it has too many hallmarks of AI, and after a long week of reading AI-written stuff at work, I don't want to read "It's not X, it's Y" on the weekend. The concepts here may be amazing, but if they are, they deserve the love of a writer's touch.

Consider also that right now LLMs run slowly enough you can watch them think. I've seen a demo of an LLM running at an absurdly high speed and it reminds me of when I moved from a 2400 baud modem to a 14.4 - BBS screens that I could watch draw were all of a sudden nigh-interactive. Faster-than-realtime video generation is also coming, and will also continue to require huge hardware for a long while yet.

I love local models - I have a machine at home that runs a few for me and it's a lot of fun - but for the time being they are not super trustworthy on tool calls and staying on script. Another year or so might change all that!

I concur highly. Well, make sure you buy your cheap support contract, help beta-test Proxmox Datacentre Manager, and push for it. They could probably just onboard one of the open source authors as a contractor or something if enough companies actually pony up the couple of grand per year per box. At 50K a server, paying like 2k for a proxmox license is a joke

I will consider switching, but with like 400 VMs now it'd be a lot of work. Do you happen to know if it lets you deal with disks separately from the VM host? Used to use that flow on VMware, taint a machine but not its stateful secondary disk, and bring it back up with a fresh image and re-attach a database disk or whatever.

Ah, I mean load balancing like an AWS ALB; obviously one can use an Nginx or HAproxy for that, but it's not a primitive, you need to deploy a machine and run it.

They have auto-balancing now? Damn. I wrote a balancer using the Google OR-SAT solver because there was no VMWare DRS equiv.