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micah94

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Claude Fable 5 1 month ago

Just a personal anecdote but I have not hit any more thresholds or limits since switching to the MAX plan and so far, it's been worth it. But I do wonder how long even this will last...

You know the split is inevitable. Same as it ever was...

Whether that's Linux on your personal desktop and Windows on your work machine...

Oh and you built that desktop yourself, didn't you? But you can't even open the one at work or it's a violation.

GrapheneOS on your personal phone, and iOS on your work phone...

When this AI bubble crashes, we'll all be flooded with graphics cards no one else will want and all kinds of cool things will be built (are being built).

If you can stick it out a little longer you'll be fine. The tech you want to tinker with will be there.

I don't think we will ever understand what you saw if we continue to cling to our view of what reality actually is. I think it's unlikely whatever it is originated in some distant galaxy far far away (aliens, little-green men, spacecraft, etc). I think it's something fundamental and it's here on this planet and I don't think that sits well with people. Like many things, we have to look within rather than what's out there.

Do you think WSJ is doing this deliberately? Leaving out the part about how it's actually humans behind it. I've heard of this a long time ago, but I see this is a new story. Probably a hundred generations of monkeys have learned this behavior and they don't need any training or handling at this point!

I think like they said, it's people. The JWST has "17 different modes" (yeah, I wish I knew what that meant exactly), but it sounds complicated. For all our tech, the bottom line is it requires humans to calibrate this thing and keep it that way (or one of 17 different ways) depending on the science that needs done.

I know it wasn't a traditional bank, but when they start talking about "winning" $10 million and "picking your numbers", it sounds sooo sketchy... I can't imagine putting money into something like that. (excuse me while I go buy more DOGE coin...)

Inflation is (was originally) the increase in monetary supply (when the Fed buys treasuries and prints money). That absolutely happened big time. And we're no where near back to 2020 levels. See: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttren...

Notice how the level of inflation kind of matches the balance sheet curve if you assume the peak was that 9% (~June 2022)...now we're back down to ~3%.

But the Fed is talking about lowering rates, not increasing them further (because we're just magically on some 'glide path' back down to 2% I guess). I suppose you'll call that price gouging as well when inflation flares up again? Some of what's being "disguised" here are the definitions of words.

Just saying there are other factors at play. It's not all about the big bad corporations.

I think Japan has grown considerably beyond this by exporting their Yen through extremely low interest rates. But even that too has a ceiling. Stretching to the obscene in 100 years, the Japanese people may go extinct, but the Yen will live on continuing to prop up financial markets across the world. The way the US dollar was taken off the gold standard, the Yen has been taken off the Japanese people standard...

...and because of the extreme gains in those stocks (like NVDA) those are the ones getting sold to facilitate the unwinding. This is the "tails we lose" part. They still win of course.

Borrowing money becomes more expensive so companies will focus on their own needs (or surviving) rather than giving or outreach programs. Unlike Apple or NVIDIA most companies need to borrow money to stay in business.

There's definitely money being made buying dollars now to sell them to the BOJ later. They "intervene" by buying yen with dollars. And they always eventually intervene. So why use your own money to buy these dollars? Borrow those dollars instead. What happens if they don't intervene or start seriously for reals this time start raising rates? Those borrowed dollars that are themselves borrowed from someone else that are borrowed from someone else that are.... Well you get the idea. That's the fear, but will it actually happen? Will politicians that line their pockets with all the interest from that borrowed money allow it? How long can this go on?

My issue is that it was already known that you can't vaccinate against a corona virus. Why we were convinced this time would be different was insane to me. They used to call them "mutations". But they came up with a new word "variants". Plus there were past attempts to come up with vaccines for SARS and MERS which all failed. This was no different. I wished they had leveled with everyone about this rather than scare the shit out of people.