I am personally betting 80% of the people that left NYC will be back. Plus a lot more that will move to NYC for the first time.
It sounds great to live in a cottage... but once you realize there's nothing interesting going on there, and you essentially live your life through a screen and a microphone... it's not what most people want long term.
Google just bought (not rent) an extra building for $2B. They said that when they give new hires a choice, NYC ranks #1 in their preference.
I live in NYC and I can tell you there are more people on the streets than pre-covid. And international travel/tourism is just getting started.