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greenmilk

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The US Used to Demand the Best Tech. Now We Ban It 14 days ago

We have an entire generation of technologists convinced that you need a monopoly for a business to be viable, so every tech company is either trying to subsidize its way into a monopoly or running a deadweight loss.

Unsurprisingly, the resulting economy in aggregate is non-competitive, as it relies entirely on supply chains from competitive marketplaces.

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The current AI pricing was always going to go away 2 months ago

The state of the art models are going to get better and more expensive and smaller models are going to get cheaper.

Why do you think this will be true?

Right now I see the major US labs betting on gaining an advantage from having way more compute, and I see Chinese labs competing with one another in a resource-scarce environment, so they place much more emphasis on compute-efficiency.

But the supply chains that feed into the massive data center growth in the US are strained; there are energy, memory, and logistical bottlenecks to name a few.

In the medium-long run, compute capacity will not grow exponentially forever. Somehow it has for decades, but there can be no infinite exponential growth, and that point may be when the planet really starts to cook itself.

Maybe the US labs will become more compute-constrained, and then have to compete on efficiency.

Or maybe things change fundamentally in some other way I'm not thinking of.

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