HN user
This. I saw way more people build a few millions of retirement nest egg reliably in 10-20 years, by working on a boring good swe job and manage their investment a bit better. It's a much safer route.
This. Melatonin is a hormone. You should always be extra careful when dealing with any kind of hormone as it might affect your own body's regulations.
RAM is a commodity. It has much less moat to prevent competitions. When the rams flood the market that's when the bubble ends, until the next cycle arrives. Processors are much harder to design and commoditize.
I think you are confusing manager with ICs. Managers don't really read or review the codes. What you are describing is where agents are doing all the coding and reviewing without people in the loop. I don't think the op is working with the code as black box. He is more about describing the higher IC workflow.
Whether we still need people in the coding loop is not a trivial difference
I think they are in b2b enterprise model space. Privacy is way more important. Not sure if Sota models are needed.
Canada do have an ai company Cohere that has potential to be big. Personally I do think they are one of the credible competitors.
That's true. But trying out a new sector is one thing, even apple build their own vr. Zuck took so long to cut loss on vr platform because he wants to have this platform to be solely under his control
Btw I am just quoting someone else. It's in the news in for a long time. Besides ads monetization, Zuck's moves in recent years are mostly about creating their own platform so the Apple incident never happen again
For one thing, I still don't understand Meta as a business
Zuck got spooked by apple ads change a few years ago, which crashed the meta's stock to double digit. So Zuck is trying to own a platform. They want to be a version of openai selling ads
We can have a volume normalization ceiling function in the final pass of video data compression stream for the ads injection section. The volume normalization variable can be chosen by the stream er so that the ads' volume would be clamped below the maximum of the streamed content volume.
Conceptually I don't see how hard it is for the stream provider to implement this. Whether they want to implement is another story.
There are tons of Jewish people are against Bibi's government for a long time.
These kind of generalizations for average citizens are so dangerous. Today you are racists again Jewish group, tomorrow someone will do the same to other races.
This kind statements are so ridiculous. Should American Koreans be lumped together with DPRK? Should American Chinese be grouped with CCP?
The foreign government is not related to your average citizens regardless of the race in principle.
It's similar to tokenmaxxing in various companies. Who cares about reviewing the design and the code, just code generation all the way. If it runs it's good
Apple TV, Netflix, BritBox and PBS add up to about $45 a month. Most people are gonna judge AI up against what they’re already paying for and the AI model makers simply don’t have a good enough product.
What's the actual TAM for premium tv subscriptions though? Unlike free models which are keep improving, you can't get premium tv for free. Also they are actually competing with the total subscription price a person is willing to pay for a year.
There’s only two things useful to the average person something to help them translate and something to help them write in everyday life.
Exactly, free models are good enough for these tasks.
I just don't see how b2c is a large enough market to ask average Joe to cough up hundreds per year when there are free stuff everywhere. B2b is another story
The competitors of $65/mo subscriptions are the free models and services that are good enough. It will only get worse as open models or free tiers catch up. For most people, they just use whatever that's free
Isn't the recent Oppenheimer about building organizations, politics, and courts? There are bombs scenes but majority of the movie is the supposed boring stuff
Capex spending to push out employees is not hype. People are getting laid off as AI spending increases is definitely real
Exactly. I write my own notes in markdown, it works with or without a viewer app. I am not even sure if there is a better alternative. This format is good enough for most of the casual and semi serious use cases
There are a few things to consider if you are in the investment space:
- Growth rate: you can't compare them to the average single digit growth companies or dividend focused companies. Most of these tech companies revenue are still growing at double digit with good moat. Pe is a good measure but it's not absolute. If you believe they sustain their growth then it's a good bet. And you can choose not to buy in their growth stories too. At the end of the day investment is about judgement call
- History benchmark: some of their pe is at historical low. So they are actually cheaper than before.
- Pe ttm and forward pe: how much pe ttm are they at? how much forward pe are they projecting? If forward pe is significantly lower, that means the current analysts consensus is that they will grow in future
- Pe is the a number but it's not everything. You need to consider multiple things to decide if that's undervalued for you. It's highly subjective as different interpretations are common.
- This post is about if you want to play the gaap game with private tech companies. My point is that there are still many public companies that are cheap at certain point. You just need to be patient and be willing to research and wait. For example, meta at around 500 was a buy for me, but since then it has rebounded it's still good but not as undervalued as a few days ago
Yes gaap absolutely matters.
You can just choose not to play the accounting game, and only choose the ones that actually gaap viable as investment opportunities. For example mag7 - tesla are all relatively cheap when they dip.
Some times the best play is just not to play. If you think they are too risky, walk away. There are enough good oppotunities
Update typo: Meant to say supply constrained
The problem is that their current capacity is literally full. They were running a highly profitable business for the last 2-3 years and recently switched up the strategy to build more datacenters to meet the ai demand.
I can see they want to do it as they are currently demand constrained.
The issue is the company's valuation has priced in ridiculous growth in the future. The trajectory matters here. Not saying you should short the stock
We can have different opinion on how much inflation is too much. But the universal consensus is that a little bit of inflation is good. It's ok if you think 2% too high. Maybe 1.25% is better.
But we cannot just dispute this basic economic model and thinking that 0 or negative inflation (which would cause the stop of investment), or no consensus(that would just cause more chaos) is better. That's just absurd
It's more than the quarterly net income last year. So still quite a lot.
It's basically a form of meditation. It's a great way to get your life back on track
Not sure how that works when there are fierce competitions, and openai's product is not substantially better than the rest. There are US competitors, then China.
Take ozempic as an example. The word is already part of the culture, but the company is losing badly to lly. Novo nordisk is projecting revenue DECLINE while eli lilly is still growing massively. I am not even sure people know other glp1 drugs other than ozempic. I don't even remember lilly drugs name.
I think people should not underestimate the market. It's a dynamic game where engineering intuition might not be enough
After 30 years with a shit operating system known as Windows, Linux still cannot get over 5% adoption. Despite being free and compatible with every computer.
You need to install linux and actively debugging it. For ai, regular people can just easily switch around by opening an browser. There are many low or 0 barrir choices. Do you know windows 11 is mostly free too for b2c customers now? Nobody is paying for anything
"Regular People" know ChatGPT. They know Gemini (largely because google shoves it in their face). They don't know anything else (maybe Siri, because they don't know the difference, just that siri now sucks). I'm not sure if I would count <0.1% of tokens generated being "flooding the market".
You just proved my point. Yes they are good, but why would people pay for it? Google earns money through ads mostly.
Just like you don't give much thought to the breed of grass growing in your yard, they don't give much thought to the AI provider they are using. They pay, it does what they want, that's the end of it. These are general consumers, not chronically online tech nerds.
That's exactly the points, because most of the internet services are free. Nobody is paying for anything because they are ads supported
The value is well worth over $60-$80/mo. But conflating that with the market condition is very different.
In the world where you cheap open weight models and free tier closed sources models are flooding the market, you need very good reason to convince regular people to pay for just certain models en masse in b2c market
Real Science channel made a very good video on this topic: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGCaL_Ge6tg