euratai

China's 5% this quarter comes from massively subsidizing exports for its EV, battery, solar panels, at a steep loss per transaction, even though these type of exports are only 3% of overall exports. This is because their other engine of consumption and investment are failing. The window to do that is quickly closing, first with developed nations as Europe and US ramping up tariffs. Developing nations are starting to catch on, as Brazil and Mexico are hiking their tariffs on China as well. We'll see a steep drop of export (as we've seen for march [1]) for rest of the year.

[1] China’s exports tumble 7.5% in March and imports also fall as demand slows https://apnews.com/article/china-trade-exports-imports-b25c2...

Russia is still able to continue on because of the military help from China, as US has confirmed [1]. Russia's missile barrage on Kharkiv right now is possible because of China. However, China won't be able to attack Taiwan while massively supplying Russia. And this will further drain China. When Russia is defeated, China will be scared even further about attacking Taiwan.

[1] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/12/china-supporti...

China is old [1] and broke [2]. It won't be able to afford to attack Taiwan - for reference, 1930s Japan and Germany had way more young people. Japan was also rich from its empire, while Germany transitioned away from gold standard to afford its wars. 2022 Russia thought the war would end in 3 days.

Also, as we see from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, drones and missiles are effective at taking out the world's second largest navy. Taiwan has very accurate and effective homegrown missiles [3]. China would need to amass a ton of ships which would be easily detected, staff them with only sons from families, and try to move them across a 100 mile straits while under the barrage of US/Japan/Taiwan missiles and drones.

Lastly, China is quickly transitioning to state run economy much like Soviet Union [4], which means innovations and growth will be gone forever, especially in tech industries.

[1] https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpreview.redd....

[2] https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/international/global/frugal... https://www.scmp.com/economy/economic-indicators/article/325...

[3] https://www.eurasiantimes.com/taiwan-smashes-chinese-warship...

[4] https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/China-s-favored-sta...