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epohs

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Tough to tell exactly what you’re referencing, but you might be thinking about the Paleocene–Eocene thermal maximum, which was a natural increase in carbon in the atmosphere that led to higher temperatures. So, in some ways very similar to what we’re seeing now, but if my understanding is correct, even the PETM which was “dramatic” on a geological timescale took thousands of years to ramp up, and played out over 200,000 years. What we’re seeing now is happening much quicker, and is highly correlated with human influence.

A year or two ago I had a pretty simple thought. The idea was that LLMs make a great assistant for a skilled developer, a bad replacement for a skilled developer, and a dangerous assistant for an unskilled developer. That idea has mostly seemed to hold true as I have gotten more experience with LLMs.

I think I would revise it now to allow that LLMs can be really useful teachers for unskilled developers, however I don’t get the sense that that’s how they’re being used in many cases. It seems that it’s more common that unskilled developers using LLMs just vibe code their way through issues that they run into, never really gaining insight into why the thing they’re working on failed, and just push through until it seems like it isn’t failing anymore.

And that more or less reinforces my idea that they’re dangerous assistants in those cases where the developer is unskilled. It’s pretty much inevitable that this will introduce problems that make it through the process of creation not only unnoticed, but problems that the developer is incapable of understanding even if they are noticed.

Google Maps had already launched and had really surprised everyone at how much better it was than any other mapping tool a few years before iPhone launched. and just the interactivity of it in general independent of it being a “map” was a paradigm shifter.

Yes, the iPhone put it in everyone’s pocket, but if Apple had built a handheld device that was powerful enough to run any interactive mapping tool Google Maps was already the obvious choice.

It’s a minor quibble, but to say Apple played a majority role in Google Map’s success doesn’t ring true to me. In 2007 Google Maps was easily overtaking all other mapping tools with or without the iPhone.