epistemer

16kg is pretty standard for a male. Personally, with getting older I really love higher reps for conditioning with a 12kg but they all have their use.

I think most people are delusional though to believe they are going to stick with home kettlebell workouts if they don't like the gym. Most likely the kettlebell will be an expensive door stopper in a few months.

I have just met so few in shape people in my life that don't go to a gym. I have a pretty decent home gym and a good assortment of kettlebells but the external gym I go to just has so much more.

He makes some good arguments and is certainly better read in economics than the youtube conspiracy theory video level/back cover summary of the Creature from Jekyll Island economics most crypto enthusiast stochastic parrot back as truth.

The 24/7 crypto is a scam community is extremely odd though. I can't stand the sport of NASCAR but I can't imagine enveloping my entire thought and identity around how much I think NASCAR is a bullshit sport and trying to convince people to stop watching NASCAR.

Finding an anti-passion to that degree seems extraordinarily unhealthy mentally.

It is incredible that you can ask chatGPT anything and this is what people spend their time with.

I completely disagree and I love David Graeber.

We will automate some bullshit jobs but create all kinds of new bullshit jobs that have titles that start with AI.

Thousands of titles like "AI ____ ____ Manager" that also does nothing but schedule meetings about meetings about AI.

The mistake to me is to believe bullshit jobs are the end result of some systemic inefficiency that AI is going to automate out of existence. I just don't think that is at all the case because otherwise we would just cut so many bullshit jobs right now without AI.

It is because you don't know what you are talking about when it comes to economics.

A currency that doesn't inflate, doesn't get spent. It gets horded and stops acting as a medium of exchange. Exactly what we see with crypto and why the currency part is bullshit with it.

It is just embarrassing how ignorant people into crypto are with economics. This is economics 101 stuff, most basic ideas.

To say it is a random walk is confusing a model of reality with reality.

Totally agree with the other poster though. You can pretty much prove whatever you want in the market depending on the start date and window size.

I would think the driving factor is after market earnings releases, expectations for those releases and how many there randomly happen to be during the window in question.

Not to mention funded by foreign governments to further their own agenda.

I have lifted for 30 years.

The standard bullshit line in the fitness industry has always been "everyone else is wrong". Practically what every single trainer ever in the world has said.

The reason is because of all the things I have done in my life, lifting is the most trivially simple activity there is. It is as complex as shoveling dirt. The only way to differentiate if trying to make money is to bullshit. Pick the weights up, put them down, eat food. It just not that complicated.

I forget what lecture it was but Feynman thought the idea of "computer science" as a bit bogus and that it is really all computer engineering.

To me, it is that at our core we are a society of marketing bullshitters. The vast majority of daily activity is marketing falsity as truth to each other in basically all context.

It is all bullshit.

The problem is that it is obvious how useless and misconfigured our entire corporate management structures are with remote work so the easiest solution is to go back to the office.

The pandemic was a fun exercise in forced, real efficiency but we need to get back to the Dilbert cartoon version of life because the Dilbert cartoon characters call the shots and put a ton of time into becoming those characters.

We really got to the point of having these almost mandatory, 100% formulaic and 100% useless sex scenes in movies.

Not even sex scenes but kissing and clothes unbuttoning scenes with elevator music and maybe a bare ass shot if you the director really wanted to push the envelope.

A completely ridiculous motif that ran its course.

Duolingo was my gateway drug to Anki. I just can't imagine going back to Duolingo with the speed of going through say a 100 cards in Anki. There is just so much animation/sounds/nonsense in the way with Duolingo. It would take at least 10X longer.

There is absolutely something special about building decks too. I also get pretty much the same motivation from the timeline statistics in Anki as the streaks in Duolingo.

On the navy video I remember one of the guys mentioning they think it is a drone.

It such hubris to believe those are alien craft and not foreign military drones. As if alien craft is the more probable explanation than another country having drones the US Navy does not.

I think that underestimates the massive amount of distractions a person had to deal with being born in 2000.

I can remember being bored out of my mind and so practicing Bach on guitar for hours in 1990. There is just no way I would have done that in 2015. That feeling was gone forever the first time my modem connected to the internet.

It wouldn't be shocking that the intellectual giants of old became so because they had nothing much else to do but read and think.

I do put Wolfram in the same league as Von Nuemann in terms of not being ashamed to admit they are beyond me. I can distinctly remember getting New Kind of Science from the library, getting home and then quickly realizing there is no chance in hell I can read a 1000 pages of this.

That is a huge assumption. The simplest explanation to me is that while they have larger language models they don't have a better product than chatGPT to release. I would think building that product is what this $400m represents.

The impressive thing with chatGPT to me is how well it understand what you want even with very sparse input. Even if it gives wrong answers it still feels like you are both on the same page. That seems like the secret sauce even if a larger language model would give more correct output. I wouldn't be shocked at all if Google doesn't have anything currently that feels the way chatGPT does when it comes to interaction and now they are racing to build exactly that.

It makes me a bit sad thinking about how smart creative people in order to make a bunch of money use to form bands like this. Now they form startups in a much more dull society.

Awesome. I am ordering this right now.

I see it as the opposite. It is amazing what the model can do with poor quantitative reasoning.

I just can't imagine adding super human quantitative reasoning is going to be that big of a stumbling block over the next decade. If anything that is probably the low hanging fruit here for a huge jump into the unknown.

I think it is really hard to say where all this goes right now when we currently don't even have good quantitative reasoning.

10 years ago we were still working on MNIST prediction accuracy. 10 years forward from here all bets are off. If the model has super human quantitative reasoning and a mastery of language I am not sure how much programming we will be doing compared to moving to a higher level of abstraction.

On the other hand, I think there will be so many new software jobs because of the volume of software built over the next 20 years. The volume of software built over the next 20 years is probably unimaginable sitting where we are.

The radar and RF on approach might make sense. I just don't see how a provocation test makes any sense though. It is hardly like America is not willing to use military force.

Really, a mistake on the part of China feels like the Occam's razor explanation to me.

It is just very hard to see the risk/reward calculation to do this intentionally with spy networks both on the ground and in space.

It would be pretty absurd to believe the US military is not tracking every inch of its own air space.

I just don't see how chatGPT and crypto are at all comparable.

One immediately and obviously has thousands of use cases while one we are still trying to figure out the use case 13 years later.

Give it a few generations and I honestly don't know if I am reading this board anymore as opposed to just discussing things with the AI assistant.

If anything it is exactly why crypto is such bullshit. Something that is revolutionary doesn't need much convincing. If anything chatGPT reminds me of Myspace. All of the sudden everyone is just using it. No need for all kinds of childish and naive readings of Rothbard and Mises to convince people of its utility.

I don't think the lack of user pictures can be underestimated.

No pictures and great moderation is basically the opposite of Instagram and I think exactly why real discussion takes place on here.

I think an uncensored model will ultimately win out though exactly the way a hard coded safe search engine would lose in time.

Statistics seem to be 20-25% of all search is for porn. I just don't see how uncensored chatGPT doesn't beat out the censored version eventually.

Totally agree. I was just thinking how I will eventually not use a search engine once chatGPT can link directly to what we are talking about with up to date examples.

That is a situation that censoring the model is going to be a huge disadvantage and would create a huge opportunity for something like this to actually be straight up better. Censoring the models is what I would bet on as being a fatal first mover mistake in the long run and the Achilles heel of chatGPT.

I expect to be bypassing the search engine none too soon.

Up to date chatGPT that could both summarize and link to the content would pretty much end my use of a search engine. That will just become a natural part of the back and forth with the AI assistant.

I suspect we massively overrate the first mover advantage with new technology like this though. I remember not being able to join Friendster because I didn't know anyone on Friendster to invite me. An invite only social network is obviously stupid now but that was hardly obvious in 2003. chatGPT will probably make a huge fatal mistake exactly because they are first. I wouldn't count Google and Meta out so easily.

I am not much a fan of the Beatles but I don't know how any person who is serious about music can view them as overrated.

They were objectively so influential that any contrarian take on this just sounds like bullshit to me.

Most young people are also working. I don't see how that matters.

As you get older there are just less new first experiences to have.

Falling in love for the 20th time can never feel like the first. Another great Thai meal can never have the kick of the first with having no idea what to expect.

I am sure there is an aspect of that but what made him look like such a jackass in the movie was his own words.

Not to mention that he cheated and was the villain in reality.

Mitchell being a cheat is the greatest thing ever. Just the most poetic and perfect ending to King of Kong.

I feel bad that if someone watches it now for the first time they will never get that reveal years later.