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edwnj

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Beyond investor routs and its massive downstream consequences.. The are legal ramifications.

The board and Zuck as fiduciary responsibility to the majority of shareholders. There is a reason why ever board member gets directors insurance.

If Zuck doesn't do the right thing and continues to make irresponsible gambles, the shareholders can sue him.

This is also not theoretical either, there are already suits (unrelated): https://www.politico.com/news/2021/09/21/facebook-paid-billi...

Yes dual class shares means most modern tech companies are de facto dictatorships but that doesnt change the point. Sergey's boss is the shareholders.

This is not theoretical. The most infamous example of one sided dual class shares is Meta. Zuckerberg decided to throw the middle finger to the board and share holders, highest employee growth in FAANG..

He ignored activist shareholder letters like the one from Brad Gerstner and now the stock is collapsing, way beyond the corrections the rest of big tech faced.

He has already began course correction but lets say he instead Zuck decided to double down. You can easily see more rounds of shareholder rout.

This is a painfully obvious hit piece and its exactly why MSM is quickly becoming extinct.

They didn't sign a single contract or start a single project and the reason is obvious. They are don't want to end up in a news article like this hit piece was pretending to be, they don't want to be a billion dollar megaproject failure.

Despite how advanced it is, the project is still clearly in R&D phase and looking at the magnitude of the problem they're trying to solve, it will probably stay in R&D for a while.

I strongly disagree with on demographics, it looks really good for most of the century. Everything including TFR, young population, working population and even elderly populations looks REALLY good. Especially relative to China.

Demographics aside, India is a perfect replacement for China in high tech manufacturing. Stability is a huge factor here giving India a massive edge compared to south east asian alternatives.

On top of that, you have young highly skilled & literate workforce. A largely discounted wealthy diaspora investing back into the motherland. Huge pool of software talent.

IMO it makes for a huge Shenzhen like moment for India. Again, I leave a massive amount of room for India to duck this up but it is India's opportunity to fuck up. The winds have shifted heavily in their favour.

Russia is a UUUUGE strategic geopolitical ally for China.

In a de-globilised world split into spheres of influence, Russia would be a foothold into Europe.

Cheap resources cant be discounted, China has duck all for resources. It imports everything (raw nat resources) and its current source Australia is not an ally.

As for what happens next: de-globalisation

I predict we'll see blocks forming up again, something like: - West (US+EU) - East (China+Russia) - India (India, Sri Lanka, Himalayan States, South China states) - Middle (Middle East+North Africa) - Latam (Central + South American States)

One wild card IMO would be the rise of the Indian sphere of influence. I'll leave some room for India's remarkable ability to snatch defeat form the jaws of victory. If they don't f this up, they have UUUGE tailwinds going for them.

Middle east is overrated IMO, its like an oasis with oil instead of water. When the oil money runs out, not gonna be fun any more.

Latam is probs the biggest wildcard, even bigger than India. They don't need a lot of things to be right to wildly outperform as a block. Just like the US, they are protected by two oceans so they can choose to not involve themselves in stuff.

Africa is highly overrated IMO, the entire continent is cursed in multiple ways. If u compare africa to another post colonial continent like Latam, africa is in a place where they need to get so many things right to just survive, let alone to catch up.

Its definitely not a lack of confidence in USD or the feds. Relative to pretty much every noteworthy alternative, the feds have handled things a lot better.

- EU royally f'd with their stimulus & rates. Mind you, they were in a very precarious position to start with. - China has proven themselves to be a house of cards with zero covid, massive public/corporate debt bubbles and Ji becoming god emperor. - Russia is a glorified gas station with an economy the size of florida.

The reason for Ghana's action, Saudi looking to end petro dollar, China+Russia looking to form a block etc: US deep state ducking up big time.

The weaponised the dollar.. They've been ramping this up big time during the past few decades but the Ukraine War was a UUUUGE reveal the cards moment.

During the last 2 years, Russia was filling up their coffers with high oil prices. The US turned these foreign reserves into worthless numbers on a screen overnight with the press of a few buttons.

Now pretty much every country is looking at each other like "oh shit".

actually found it (Nasdaq: OKTA)..

The company lost an insane amount of money each quarter (-46% margin).. The are worth almost 8 billion, 1.3 billion in revenue to net -850m in revenue..

If it wasn't for their balance sheet (pretty strong) and gamble short this crap.. I might still, im gonna wait a few months for the woke communists in the org to drain money then short..

I'm almost 100% certain these people are gonna drain the balance sheet whilst their revenue gonna collapse next year.

Naaa this is the best thing to happen to bitcoin. Over the last 2 years bitcoin was being eaten up by wall street and technocrats.

The OG crypto people were being bribed by all the money coming in and the ones that remained "pure" were being shunned as "toxic btc maxis".

This is like a massive wildfire that gets rid of all the "overgrowth". If it wasn't for this, there was a non zero chance that bitcoin would slowly die out.

Worse we would've ended up in a dystopian future of CBDCs and social credit etc.

There is no on/off ramps to the fiat world.

Other issues like complexity/bad ux are being rapidly fixed but the on/off ramp issue is one thing that technology can't fix. Its a legal issue.

I know this gets into politics a bit. But when it comes to forming my worldview about these things there is usually the rational side then there is the gut instinct.

The rational side told me (and the best investors in the world) these guys were the smart people in the room, the wont do anything stupid.

Then you look at SBF: he is a major democratic donor, he supports UBI, his underlying driver is to make money to give it away, he is a vegan, he hangs around with clintons etc.

I believe ever since the bloody collapse of communism, the modern descendants of that ideology never label them selves as communists. They use different words to achieve the same end: stakeholder capitalism, effective altruism, UBI etc..

Its a huge leap and to clarify I'm not saying they are closeted or anything. I guess what I'm saying is we are living in a very weird world where nothing is as its seems.

Therefore its more important than ever to rely on ones gut instinct about a person. Its more important than ever to not disregard signals like a high iq person who is also a vegan or supports UBI.

I know this is a controversial opinion but its my 2 cents. I think the corruption of the intellect is the most fatal of threats.

The kind of damage avg people can do is often limited and can be seen from a mile away but these high iq people with a god complex can destroy entire civilisations with their good intentions. SBF is a good example, next is vitalik and Proof Of Stake ethereurm (IMO)..

its is in signigicantly better shape. Ops cost have basically halved whilst growth metrics are breaking records. Revnue down because of commie backlash but thats been replaced by blue subscriber revenue in real time..

still tho, that 2x-3x multiple is a huuge gap to close and the company is still far from getting out its troubles. Troubles which btw existed wayyy before Elon or the recessions.

You google Twitter financials and metrics over the past years, its been grossly mismanaged..

The main attraction was access to pretty much any shitcoin and advanced leverage+trading features:

- multiple sub accounts - 20x leverage with tiered liquidations - you could use your portfolio as collateral - advanced trading tools

This is why it was so shocking to see them collapse for doing such a stupidly bad thing, the guy seemed super smart (albeit vegan+commie).

The kind of work where IP, material & confidentiality matters usually happens in R&D labs.

Pretty much everybody who looks for co-working places are working in non R&D type stuff.

People from other companies "comingling" is usually a REALLY good thing for the companies. Usually the best stuff comes out of this (Steve Jobs & Xerox's PARC)

People greatly underestimate the environment and aesthetics. This is the place you'll spend majority of your time everyday for a very long time.

I wasn't sold on WeWork in theory until I started going with a friend (as a guest) and I was sold immediately.

I tend towards the introverted side so its not the socialising or "networking".. It's the environment: - constantly kept clean - good view, aesthetics & lighting - productivity happening all around you. - Kewl kitchen area with expensive tea & coffee

All Access is gamechanger too, the idea that I can go to Miami, spend some time at south beach and then be super productive at Lex Avenue WeWork with a super kewl view is AWESOME! (I live in London)..

The idea that u can use the same keycard to work in a familiar yet different environemnt in London & Miami is super kewl. Its like the democratisation of the kind of lifestyle you'd have as a billionaire.

You're twisting my words. Peacetime is different to wartime is a general statement that has nothing to do with his service.

Military metaphors are common in business for a reason. Modern business management inherited a lot of the military after WW2. To this day, you'll see people with Special Ops history consulting businesses (Echelon Front)

I meant no disrespect, just an educated guess since there has been no major war after WWII..

I'm mainly talking about the difference in strategy/posture during wartime vs peacetime.. Just look at whats happening in Ukraine rn, Russia changing commanders to go full scorched earth.

To save a company like Twitter, this is exactly the kind of thing u need to do. Private equity does this all the time.

Difference is you served (or are serving) during peacetime. This is wartime..

Twitter is in a shit load of trouble and unlike Meta & Snap which are crashing like a shitcoin.. Elon bought Twitter at 2x-3x what its actually worth.

Unlike the past decade, where these companies had easy access to funny money during a tech bull market.. now we are entering a uuge recession.. Twitter (or any company for that matter) which doesn't go into wartime mode is gonna get rekt

If u look at the past decade, the real coins survive. Its the venture backed ponzis that die..

Basically no exchange should be holding enough to cause a collapse of the coin. With bitcoin this will never happen, there was multiple collapses at times where liquidity & ramps were non existent.. and bitcoin still survived to go up multiples.

the transaction fees, the verification and throughput limitations are fundamental technical tradeoffs required for a truly decentralised store of value.

The people and technologies claiming to have "fixed" or "improved" upon bitcoin are often making different trade offs they lie about. This is why I like solana, they make no pretence of being decentralised.

btw fiat is 1000x worse. You don't see it on the news because you're forced through coercen to bail out & insure these bad actors. The current US bank reserve requirement is 10%.. the only reason there isn't a bank run is FDIC. The whole thing is an incestious mess that creates our current world of cantillionaires..

Celsius = centralised, terra = centralised, FTX = centralised...

The point is stop trusting centralised wolf in sheeps clothing.. same goes for ethereum with Proof Of Stake.. ur just reinventing central banking (but private)..

The only truly decentralised coin is bitcoin..

This is so dumb it takes superhuman levels of restraint for me to not swear.

We literally don't have the tech nor capacity for make this transition: - we dont have the rare earth minerals - we don't have the metals - with exception of nuclear all these alternatives are extremely inefficient.

It takes years of sustained exponential demand to even let capacity catch up and thats if we can even feasible find new reserves (for rare earth).

Let alone the game theoretic situation where u can only achieve this with a tyranny. It will cost significantly less to adapt and change..