HN user
I would be more excited if it wasn't $200 a month to try.
I don't feel like OpenAI does a good job of getting me excited either.
Find the perfect snowboard? How can that idea get pitched and make the final cut for a $200 a month service? The NFL kicker example is also completely ridiculous.
The business and UX example seems interesting. Would love to see more.
I think sports betting is obnoxious and stupid but I do worry about this moral policing some seem to want to do.
The people I know losing money to online sports betting are the same people who thought they were going to become pro online poker grinders 15 years ago.
If you got rid of online sports betting they would go play slots at the casino more and waste their money on the lottery.
If you get rid of all games of chance for money, there is a good % of people who will find a way to squander their savings somehow.
If anything, people I know waste far more money going out to eat than sports betting.
I grew up playing American football and I am pretty well versed on the literature.
I live for now and don't put a lot of stock in having a great life after 65.
In American football, much depends on the position you played. I am not sure how that is for Aussie rules but lineman and linebackers who would be involved in more hits have it worse than wide receivers and cornerbacks. That never seems to be reported with CTE.
The concussion count is mostly non-sense from my understanding. I think this is how the NFL has shaped the narrative to not be so bad and their bogus "concussion protocol". The subconcussive hits are the major problem and that is just part of football. I took at least a thousand of them smashing heads together.
It is also degenerative over time. You aren't going to just wake up one day with problems. If it is really bad you are going to have crazy behavior problems. Like Aaron Hernandez. I am sure OJ Simpson had bad CTE.
I just doubt cold sores are that big of a variable compared to being hit in the head thousands of times.
My memory completely sucks but that has just made me an incredibly good note taker for job related functions.
Sapolsky's book Determined is really the counter to your post.
I don't want to believe what that book says but it is quite a strong argument. It is really too sweeping and complicated to discuss in this format though. It really would need an entire counter book to it that dissects each point.
It would be better to have a photographic memory and not need to repeat anything.
You are 100% right but have absolutely no point.
Just a completely absurd statement unless by "empowerment" you mean famine, starvation and early death.
Empowerment as 30% infant mortality rate.
Empowering life long marriage since a person would get married and be dead in 10-15 years.
Brilliant.
I feel like at this point we have to separate LLMs and reasoning models too.
I can see the argument against chatGPT4 reasoning.
The reasoning models though I think get into some confusing language but I don't know what else you would call it.
If you say a car is not "running" the way a human runs, you are not incorrect even though a car can "outrun" any human obviously in terms of moving speed on the ground.
To say since a car can't run , it can't move though is obviously completely absurd.
It is also through the exchange rates.
USD to CAD has front ran a lot of this already. 1.45 is crazy.
The idea Canada can so easily re-route trade is absurd. Especially when the trade is going to be settled in USD.
I have been trying to understand the point of all this and come up empty this morning. I would have to assume it is for enormous leverage in the trade deal that ultimately ends all this. The leverage this gives the US in a trade deal, especially with Canada is pretty incredible.
25% is just so insane that it probably does cause Mexico and Canada to concede to whatever Trump wants in a trade deal and in short order. I think this is why Trump won't even take a call from Trudeau right now. It is a leverage tactic and then when they do talk what leverage does Trudeau have? Basically zero.
I always hated Perl.
This library does sound interesting and maybe Perl would be less painful for me now with a language model.
The article is great right until it gets into the perl code.
My brain just turns off and my eyes want to cross.
That is surprising, I don't even remember having to look up that much to use the Anki UI.
I make cards on a linux desktop and sync to ankidroid.
Really one of my all time favorite pieces of software. I would have given anything to have had this 30 years ago in school.
I think it is both and this is very obvious if you read Pareto and Sapolsky.
It is more than just success too.
Most behavior we believe is some kind of rational action when it is really blind actions based on fiction or just completely random with rationalizations for the behavior after the fact.
The figures I have seen in a trade war with Canada is Canada causes a -.2% hit to US GDP while Canada gets a -2% hit. That is not going to work for Canada.
These aren't abuses of power though. We just largely got use to the president not trying to do all that much.
Obama issued 275 executive orders and Franklin Roosevelt issued 3721. Calvin Coolidge issued 1203. I think all the presidents during my lifetime combined issued less than Woodrow Wilson at 1803.
That is not to say I think a trade war with Canada is a good idea. It really makes no sense to me at all.
I don't really understand what the end game is with Canada here.
For Mexico, it seems more like a prod for social policy on immigration and fentanyl.
I listened to Trudeau yesterday and he isn't even able to get a hold of Trump right now, something that seems just insane.
I am just not sure that is true though that this is a disaster for the US. How much can China afford to fight back here with the state of their economy? Canada retaliating is asymmetrically bad for Canada.
Dollar strength and an emerging market currency breaking is what worries me. Inside the US, I would expect much of the potential inflation will just be exported through dollar strength. I imagine that is the method to the madness.
People are stupid.
What is censorship to a puritan? It is a moral good.
As an American, I have put a lot of time into trying to understand Chinese culture.
I can't connect more with the Confucian ideals of learning as a moral good.
There are fundamental differences though from everything I know that are not compatible with Chinese culture.
We can find common ground though on these Confucian ideals that DeepSeek can represent.
I welcome China kicking our ass in technology. It is exactly what is needed in America. America needs a discriminator in an adversarial relationship to progress.
Otherwise, you get Sam Altman and Worldcoin.
No fucking way. Lets go CCP!
It is especially absurd though when you have a business that depends on ROADS.
As if the roads just pay for themselves.
It is all the genius really of Duchamp's Fountain from 1917.
At this point the conversation is just boring.
It is still curious though as far as what is actually being automated?
I find huge value in these models as an augmentation of my intelligence and as a kind of cybernetic partner.
I can't think of anything that can actually be automated though in terms of white collar jobs.
The white collar model test case I have in mind is a bank analyst under a bank operations manger. I have done both in the past but there is something really lacking with the idea of the operations manager replacing the analyst with a reasoning model even though DeepSeek annihilates every bank analyst reasoning I ever worked with right now.
If you can't even arbitrage the average bank analyst there might be these really non-intuitive no AI arbitrage conditions with white color work.
It is a nuanced point but what is better, a sedan or a truck? I think we are still at that stage of the conversation so it doesn't make much sense.
I do think it is a good metaphor for how all this shakes out though in time.
I had resubscribed to use o1 2 weeks ago and haven't even logged in this week because of R1.
One thing I notice that is huge is being able to see the chain of thought lets me see when my prompt was lacking and the model is a bit confused on what I want.
If I was anymore impressed with R1 I would probably start getting accused of being a CCP shill or wumao lol.
With that said, I think it is very hard to compare models for your own use case. I do suspect there is a shiny new toy bias with all this too.
Poor Sonnet 3.5. I have neglected it so much lately I actually don't know if I have a subscription or not right now.
I do expect an Anthropic reasoning model though to blow everything else away.
I don't even mind an exclusive community but the idea of begging for an invite is against my very nature.
I think you are confusing pricing and valuation.
Anything can be priced and the price can be modeled.
Crypto valuation is what doesn't make sense because it is not a cash producing asset.
I don't know though if the price of crypto is more ridiculous than the price of an original Francis Bacon painting or a PSA 10 Michael Jordan rookie card.
The main issue for me with crypto is we haven't had a recession that was more than a blip since the bitcoin white paper. The price of Francis Bacon and Michael Jordan have been through some tough economic times. We will see how crypto does. Not something I want to find out with my own money.
Not trying to be ironic but it would be interesting to see what this below would look like in the strange mix form:
"If the model's actions involve generating tokens (like in language models), then optimizing these token outputs to maximize reward could lead the model to develop a consistent, efficient way of using tokens that's specific to the problem domain. This might look like a DSL because the tokens are used in a structured, perhaps abbreviated or symbolic way that's efficient for the task, not necessarily human-readable but effective for the model's internal processing."
There is no way this is true. It is just an example of why Reddit is a fucking joke that you should never read.
I have seen it infer incredibly obscure things in the chain of thought that I was impressed it could piece together.
It is an incredible tool. I would trust it 1000% more than a random person on reddit.
Because all this with the stock price has nothing to do with reality.
Everyone just starts repeating the same things until people believe them as fact.
The "sell off" was basically nothing. Who cares that the NVDA went back to the price it was in October then bounced in the after market one day.
It is a complete non-story. Even at the bottom of the "sell off" it was still up 20% from the end of summer.
Listening to any news makes people less informed about the world in 2025. We are way past Gell-Mann amnesia. That was for the newspaper. "The news" in 2025 is really a strange kind of mass confusion engine. The more news a person consumes the more confused they are about the world.
This is it.
I was planning on spending the $200 for a month but had been thinking of prompts to try it out.
DeepSeek already answered them all for free so I am not just going to light $200 on fire for fun.
It isn't really hype for me.
For my use, it is better than $20 a month o1 and being able to see the chain of thought is absolutely incredible.
I have learned as much this week from seeing the chain of thought as I have from what it actually outputs.
Or as if people use to work 12 hours in a coal mine and have all this energy for dancing and piano practice after.
Modern people are just spoiled and largely delusional.
I had a bad work day yesterday but compared to anything else I would have been doing 50 years ago it was absolutely nothing in terms of stress or energy.
I think it is even worse than this.
The only way this would work is to create a kind of great firewall of America keeping open source Chinese models out while the remainder of the globe uses something like DeepSeek.
It would literally be the dumbest soft-power move in the history of the US.
We are in a state of denial.
If AI is the new electricity this idea the US is going to monopolize electricity is just dumb.
David Sacks I am sure has many bad bets right now so has to talk his book.