Elon wrote: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1649523985837686784
3 months ago, we started building a massive water-cooled, steel plate to go under the launch mount.
Wasn’t ready in time & we wrongly thought, based on static fire data, that Fondag would make it through 1 launch.
To me, it sounds like people that would have been considered experts (and probably still are) made assessments than turned out to be incorrect.