As a Bethesda fan (spending 1000s of hours combined in Fallout and Skyrim), I enjoyed reading this post. Especially liked the use of creating your own NPC to test the various scenarios. I just now started playing the Oblivion remaster for the first time and I find that I am liking the NPC interactions / liveliness a lot more compared to their later titles.
The one item that stood out to me was: "Todd’s mid-fight dagger acquisition Verdict: Impossible in the final game unless scripted to do so"
I do not disagree with the verdict for the final build of the game but I recall observing something similar in Fallout 3. I had stashed a mini-nuke launcher and ammmo in the Megaton player home. Some sort of conflict transpired (do not remember what exactly, perhaps I provoked an NPC for fun), I witnessed one of the town-folk run into my player home (in its own cell) and come back out with my weapon. It is possible with 1000s of hours in Bethesda games I am just mishmashing memories together but I am pretty sure this is what prompted me to eventually download a player home mod (and eventually learn G.E.C.K. by "remastering" it).