The beginning of scarcity in AI 3 months ago
The grocery store analogy works if compute is the orange.
But labs arent buying oranges — theyre buying the only orchard on the island, hoping it yields a fruit no ones grown yet. Burning $1B to net $500M isnt "I have too few oranges." Its "Im betting the farm Ill find a new one."
Both can be irrational. Theyre irrational in different ways.