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aserdf

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the rule of thumb i've always seen is "consecutive quarters of negative economic growth" - in other words, negative change in GNP (have seen GDP used as well) after accounting for inflation.

since these indicators are always published after a time period has occurred and been tabulated, its possible we have crossed the threshold and are in a recession as we speak.

Q1 2022 is estimated at -1.5% right now, the final number will be released on 6/29. Meaning Q2 final data will be released sometime around the end of September, to make it an "official" recession (if Q2 ends up being negative).

im adding marginal rates which is somewhat lazy. assuming 1,080,000 as a single earner (married changes the calculation of course):

  - 37% federal
  - 9.65% state
  - 3.876% city tax
  - 3% SS and medicare
  - ?? disability, unemployment, etc.
  - some additional % to cover single payer
so thats somewhere in the mid 50% range adding up. again, effective rates won't be that exact number except for ultra high earners. this also doesn't include property tax or sales tax (8.875%).

crocodile tears for million dollar earners and their tax bills of course, my point being that chasing away a small amount of residents can have an outsized effect on state revenue. (0.3% of returns account for 27% of revenue federally)

it will be interesting to watch NY (and/or CA) put something like this in place and observe from afar. i strongly feel that states should be much more aggressive running policy experiments if their constituents desire them, and at the national level we all get some benefit of seeing how things turn out in real time.

all that said, assuming there is some tangible tax increase, NYC high earners are going to be knocking on the door of 60% combined rates (city, state, federal). tax avoidance and/or relocation services are going to be booming if so.

Ubiquiti vs. Krebs 4 years ago

a few weeks ago UI released an update to their protect surveillance line which subsequently prevented certain cameras from recording. an update which fixed this "bug" was released 3 days ago.

things like this contribute more to the mood you reference than the reporting from Krebs a year ago, IMO.

Ubiquiti vs. Krebs 4 years ago

question - does ubiquiti open themselves up to discovery and a lot of private info becoming public by filing this?

Ubiquiti vs. Krebs 4 years ago

...venture capital idealises subscription pricing right now...

Pera owns ~91% of the company, it all comes from the top.

The weight and speed have external impacts on road durability as well as air quality. Compare the amount of carbon dioxide released by a truck of that size and most other residential polluting machines and it doesn't come close.

Correlation, causation regarding weight/size of vehicle and external impact. Its actually quite simple to objectively determine that sort of impact on a vehicle by vehicle basis, all of this is known. No reason to anchor it to the weight of a vehicle.

Again, the tax aspect ("fraud") is NOT being pushed by a potential purchaser. the laws FORCE it to be a vehicle that is tax exempt (according to the article).

there are a myriad of wasteful, polluting machines in the world today. who is the arbiter of who is and who is not allowed to use such a machine?

also why blame anyone who purchases such a vehicle for nonsensical tax laws? it is not clearly a commercial vehicle yet the laws are such that it is considered so simply by weighing a certain amount. that is what creates the tax loophole, not the speed limiter. the limiter is simply a consequence of an arbitrary classification.

Ah gotcha. And yes you’re correct on that, Alfa’s re-entry into the US market has been such a mess, if I had to guess their only buyers are enthusiasts who know the brand and appreciate the tech or people who want something that isn’t BMW/Audi/Merc but still has some visual appeal. I hope they survive as one of the few remaining enthusiast brands, would be a shame for them to follow in FIATs footsteps.

IMO the issue is the paywall is essentially "cloaking" by google webmaster standards. different content is displayed to the crawler (actual text of the article which gets indexed) vs the user (a paywall).

the content provider might not ask for the crawler but they are certainly catering to it - and benefitting from it.

there is an experimental[0] treatment for MS, the "immune system reboot". i am a layperson but my understanding is stem cells are taken from the patient, the immune system is "destroyed" through immunosuppressants and the stem cells are then used to rebuild a "naive" immune system in the patient.

based on the info in the OP, i wonder if the MS result from EBV is random; what is the probability of a rebooted immune system to follow the same path after exposure?

[0] https://www.nih.gov/news-events/nih-research-matters/immune-...

     > I want to reduce/eliminate my alcohol consumption...
same here. each year it just takes more and more out of me physically/mentally, this year really seemed to emphasize that. looking for 6 months here and then will re-evaluate. in the past breaking a sweat when the urge/opportunity arises has been pretty effective.
     > ...as circumstances outside your control (think 2020, 2021) can end up in failure which is demotivating...
having been bitten by this in the past, im curious how you manage your ongoing targets. backlog style? i usually have a few different target areas (health, work, learning, etc) that are all on different timelines so unless i am constantly monitoring cumulative progress one ends up falling off and things cascade from there.

in this layman's view of similar past events that seems to be exactly what happens. look at previous pandemics - Russian, Spanish, Hong Kong. Very similar infection and mortality waves; elderly, predisposed, poor health were the first casualties. as it made its rounds the rest developed immunity over time, along with children being incredibly resilient. as the population turns over those with immunity have low impact encounters. The corresponding viruses from those pandemics continue to circulate today as seasonal flu and cold strains. just my 2 cents.

now that apple has shown the world that Pandora's box is open it is a foregone conclusion that on device scanning will be implemented on android as well. and not just for images of course, but all device contents.

apple:

  - “Let us be clear, this technology is limited to detecting CSAM [child sexual abuse material] stored in iCloud and we will not accede to any government’s request to expand it,”
also appel:
  - “These decisions are not always easy, and we may not agree with the laws that shape them,” the company said. “But our priority remains creating the best user experience without violating the rules we are obligated to follow.”
the on-device method will 100% absolutely be abused in due time. apple will simply claim it is a new system, not the previously used CSAM method, and then hide behind their "lawful obligation".

yes - but also for those who weren't on 14.8. have a phone on 14.4 and it is now stuck with its only option being to update to ios15. so now this device is vulnerable to active exploits.

and if you do go to 15, you are forced to accept feature functionality in order to get security as well.

so much for the false text here:

  - Or continue on iOS 14 and still get important security updates.
https://www.apple.com/ios/ios-15/features/

- Adults have a right to make poor choices.

agree however the vast majority of high school kids are marketed to and forced to make decisions about college, while having little to no comprehension of the magnitude and permanence of their decision, when they are 17 years old (minors).

graduate school of course being a different story.