HN user

alpineman

308 karma
Posts0
Comments97
View on HN
No posts found.

That's the whole point though, no? Enterprises have a totally different mindset and are not willing to overlook hiccups. So they haven't found PMF with their long-term target audience until they have learned how to sell to and build for those clients

> “I’ve been thinking about writing an essay on the kind of mistakes that are made by college graduates booing or otherwise dissing AI,” he said. As if speaking to all of Gen Z, he added: “You guys have the opportunity to be generation AI—where you come into the workforce saying, ‘I know this a lot better than all of you"

Quite patronising. Maybe they really do know it a lot better than you, Reid, but not in the way you think. Maybe they see through the hype and hustle culture and are more interested in working towards fulfilling lives and jobs.

Midjourney Medical 1 month ago

I would just add that my wife is a doctor and in the age of AI it's truly unbearable. In addition to super long hours and stress they now have to deal with patients coming and thinking they know better than people who spent more than a decade in education because of what some chatbot told them.

Midjourney Medical 1 month ago

Great, a hallucinated output that only the super wealthy can afford, only to waste doctors' time with the need to run every test again at huge expense. Can we not leave medicine to the professionals? Creating a ghibli rip-off is not the same as diagnosing cancer.

I mean it's not great that Hetzner require this but it's a bit of a jump to assume that means they have links to Russian intelligence. This kind of thing is pretty common in Germany; not every private company is captured by Russian intelligence

I am not going to do a DCF on this because the assumptions are all invented anyway. But back of the envelope:

> What's the TAM of AI replacing millions of knowledge workers in support? Let's conservatively assume a few hundred billion.

> How much market share does Fin capture? Let's conservatively assume 5%.

> What's the valuation on a reasonable multiple?

5% of a few hundred billion is ~$15B of revenue. Let's assume deflated 6x revenue valiation, not the 15x these things were fetching two years ago, and you get a ~$90B company valuation (that it should grow into soon at least).

And it sold for $3.5b

So the price is telling you the real revenue is nearer 300m than $15b, which puts the actual AI-support software market in the low single-digit billions. Not hundreds of billions

And if the TAM is real but just being captured by the incumbents: Salesforce's own Agentforce, the supposed winner, is at $1.2B ARR. The "someone else is eating it" defense still has to point at the someone, and no income statement anywhere shows hundreds of billions of revenue

For Nvidia to be at $5T and the hundreds of billions a year of capex behind it only pencil out if that compute throws off a huge revenue stream downstream. Support is imo the cleanest test there is to demonstrate future value of AI in the real world (literally the first thing everyone said when ChatGPT 3.5 came out was that support will be eaten first). It's the most mature, most deployed, most automatable, and the exit price of its best player is...pretty small

It became all about money. YC is actually really the epitome of this transformation. VCs started deploying massive amounts of money, turbocharged by Covid.

At least using AI doesn't cause massive suffering of sentient beings like meat consumption does. I find it funny we talk so much about whether or not Claude's feelings are hurt and whether it has emotions, when we treat animals with real feelings, emotions, parental bonds, and personalities so badly.