ai-x

One is actually building while the other is making Youtube videos. Also the video literally answers the economic question.

I'm happy with my bet

https://youtu.be/FKHENV75b9Q?si=JFBsT2HinR02AI4P

Yes. https://youtu.be/FKHENV75b9Q?si=JFBsT2HinR02AI4P

Models need datacenters to run. It also need other services to do anything useful

"There’s a clean exception to all of this, and it flips the entire logic."

AI Slop

Completely missing the point of not adding Anthropic, OpenAI, SpaceX.

Mag7 is just an arbitrary list of companies that were coined at a specific time with no rigor.

If you must do rigorous analysis, then just like S&P 500 you need to add drop BigTech / High Growth companies continuously to this Mag7 (or Mag10) and then do analysis

Warren Buffett brags about his strategy. Jeff Bezos brags about his strategy. The reason they can brag is, even if it's simple, competition doesn't have the culture to copy/follow it. (My post is literally downvoted)

Losing privacy has ZERO downsides for ordinary people. Nobody cares about your data. Literally, put all your life on a YouTube channel and see how many views that Video will get. ZERO.

Irrational fears (especially if it's conspiratorial) => Sub-optimal decision.

Just like Buffett, Bezos, my strategy is simple -- go against firms that are making irrational decision. It's the same framework to adopt cloud, AI and many frontier technologies and disrupt

I'm happy to give my identity to Anthropic and crush my competition with irrational fear about privacy and personal data. This is a serious competitive advantage and a moat.

I'm sure people laughed in 2023 if someone said AI will reach $100B in revenue in 3 years. Yet here we are

Exactly, it's never about absolute results, it's always

Expected Value (Upside, given time/cost savings + Downside, given %reliability).

So, every task falls under a spectrum

actuaries look for data. visionaries take leaps in faith. There was no data proving LLMs will work at scale. Google waited for the Data. OpenAI and then Anthropic took the leap of faith. The result is there for all to see. The core attribute of a successful AI Researcher was were they AGI-pilled and not were they waiting for data for unknown unknowns?

I'm not talking about Claude copying.

I'm talking about scouring Twitter/LinkedIn and look at posts from employees who say SOTA model is banned. Look at what the business do. Copy it using SOTA. Call their clients with 30% discount and faster turnaround and higher quality product.

It is complicated, but I can get Private Equity of even VCs to fund this idea.

tl;dr -- I'm actually agreeing with you. Anthropic will never copy your business model due to NDA. But there are plenty of fearmongering about they copying you and because of which you won't use their models. If their models are genuinely SOTA you can use that information to your advantage and crush scaredy-cats.

Edit: The fact that these get downvoted is exactly the reason why it's easy to win

Step 1: Find all companies which refuses/bans to use SOTA models from irrational fear.

Step 2: Use SOTA models to copy them and crush them

Step 3: Profit.

(Yes, not every business is easily replicable, but you sure can find some)

One company's irrational fear is a competitive advantage for someone else.

people over-rate how much software/IP is useful in running a successful business. There are genuinely very few IP in this world that needs to be protected. Everyone else is running stupid CRUD apps

They also over index fear of LargeCo stealing IP from SmallCo. In fact, LargeCo is typically more scared about even the possibility of any product team looking at competitor internals due to lawsuits.

If it doesn't, at what point will the 'bears' admit they were horribly and confidently wrong?

If you looked at Google, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft valuation around 2007 (before the crash), you'd asked the same question about the large base. But here we are.

Why are you comparing SpaceX revenues to US GDP? (when it's main customers will all have a global footprint)

GDP rates should be nominal (5-6%) not 3%

Also, go back in time and do the same analysis for Anthropic in 2023 or Nvidia in 2021, would you have predicted their current Annual revenue for them?

The ARR of OpenAI + Anthropic > $85B greater than McDonalds, Netflix, Starbucks, Google Cloud, CocaCola, and 1000 other iconic firms around the world.

If I wanted blind pattern matching comments of dot-com bubble, I can just ask LLMs of 2023 like ChatGPT 3.5

The content of all these comments has a smell similar to 2023 when NVDA had a spectacular run and HN was absolutely sure that AI is a bubble.

It's also similar to 2024 when HN was sure that AI is a bubble.

Similar to 2025 when HN commentators were sure that AI is a bubble.

1000% gains later, HN will continue to identify patterns of 2000/2008 and are absolutely convinced it is a bubble

Note: If a company gains 1000% and loses 50%, you can't claim you were right.

Both OpenAI and Anthropic have already gained 1000% since 2023 (In Anthropic's case almost 10,000%)

Exactly. Sam may lose on Product capabilities, but never on Deals.

You clearly have no clue of the marketcap of these cannibas companies.

The minimum marketcap for S&P 500 is ~23 Billion

The highest current marketcap of cannibas companiy is $3 Billion

Remember the scene in "You got mail" where there are bunch of people who protest against big retailer and support the local bookstore but at the end of the day, they have no extra sales.

All these anti-Google, anti-facebook, anti-Instagram, anti-OpenAI, anti-Claude stories are exactly that. Provide copium and feel good for a handful of people for a few days.

E.g If the driver brakes because they saw a pothole, and Lidar captures someone biking 200m away on their own path, it may mistakenly put more weight on brake causation to the 200m away object (because large moving object) vs the pothole.

I'm exaggerating, but I hope you get the point. It isn't even conflicting sensor signals about the pothole, but conflicting information about the causation. With vision only there is no conflict for the training data. This was my Aha moment. Multiple Sensors are absolutely important for fallback and extra safety, but screws up training that are based on Human Drivers

I think Elon himself doesn't understand this and hence can't articulate it, while just repeating whatever his ML engineer has said.

You are just being punished for your poor judgement for not backing the winner. Not sure why you should be rewarded.

It's the same logic for de-googlers. You can't De-Google yourself and then bitch about some Google products work better on Google products.

If you are a proud edge-lord/hipster with your obscure choices, you should also learn to deal with consequences.

Scale brings advantages. You can't have it both ways

I thought about this and I think it boils to how the model is trained.

Tesla trains it models from actual drivers purely based on (input) Vision and (output) actuators - Brake, Steering, Accelerators.

Human output is based on what they and the camera sees. So, it's a 1:1 match.

If Waymo were to do that, it'll muddle the training set. The Lidar input may override camera input.

I always struggled when Musk mentioned Lidar will make it ambiguous. It didn't make any sense to me why having a secondary failback sensor messes things. But, if you put it in the training data context, it absolutely makes sense.

Imagine making "AI Hater" as your personality

That's like saying can't the Judge decide who the killer was when he literally saw the video of shooting.

HN is not the target market.

In fact, if HN hates it, there is a higher chance the product will be successful

Will Bookmark it so that it becomes one of those legendary HN quotes

The landscaper analogy is to explain how any firm can hire or fire at the same time (which many can't seem to grasp).

A landscaper that doesn't have repeat clients is what you are comparing to, which is the signal for unskilled labor.

(If we are just using the landscape ecosystem).

For the Knowledge Worker ecosystem, the seasonality is not summer/winter but say Recession/Growth or Technology Waves. There is definitely at least 3 years gap between Recession/Growth of Technology Waves. So, someone getting fired every 8 months is a red flag just like the Landscaper not getting re-hired the next season.

All these are valid signals but most HNers are blinded by anti-corporation propaganda and can't see the objective reality