Turfie

Thank you. You have somewhat shifted my beliefs in a meaningful way.

There's only so much information in the world and we've largely downloaded it all, so it can't get better there.

What about all the input data into LLMs and the conversations we're having? That must be able to produce a better next gen model, no?

it's ridiculously easy for anyone to fine-tune training, we don't need frontier companies for that.

Not for me. It'll take me days, and then I'm pretty sure it won't be better than Gemini 3 pro for my coding needs, especially in reasoning.

For doing math you'll use one model, for intelligence you'll use a different model, for coding a different model, for health a different model, etc, and the reason is simple: it's faster, lower memory, and more accurate.

Why wouldn't e.g. Gemini just add a triage step? And are you sure it's that much easier to get a better model for math than the big ones?

I think you underestimate the friction this causes regular users by handpicking and/or training specific models, whilst the big vendors are good enough for their needs.

Thanks for the insights. The 'podcasting bro' bit is hilarious.

I don't think demand will collapse though, since the Mag7 has the cash flow to spend, and they can monetize if the time's ripe.

What do you think?

Well, they might have gotten a little wary from previous boom and bust cycles. Perhaps they are a bit wary about the economic sustainability of the whole AI thing. However, perhaps they also might be driven by greed at this point. Why not just constrain supply and increase margins whilst they are no real competitor?

I've thought about this too. I do agree that open source models look good and enticing, especially from a privacy standpoint. But these solutions are always going to remain niche solutions for power users. I'm not one of them. I can't be hassled/bothered to setup that whole thing (local or cloud) to gain some privacy and end up with an inferior model and tool. Let's not forget about the cost as well! Right now I'm paying for Claude and Gemini. I run out of Claude tokens real fast, but I can just keep on going using Gemini/GeminiCLI for absolutely no cost it seems like.

The closed LLMs with the biggest amount of users will eventually outperform the open ones too, I believe. They have a lot of closed data that they can train their next generation on. Especially the LLMs that the scientific community uses will be a lot more valuable (for everyone). So in terms of quality, the closed LLMs should eventually outperform the open ones, I believe, which is indeed worrisome.

I also felt anxious early december about the valuations, but, one thing remains certain. Compute is in heavy demand, regardless of which LLM people use. I can't go back to pre-AI. I want more and more and faster and faster AI. The whole world is moving that way it seems like. I'm invested into phsyical AI atm (chips, ram, ...) whose evaluations look decently cheap.

I agree. Especially the whole Johny Ive and Altman's hype video in that coffee shop was absolutely disgusting. Oh how far their egos have been inflated, which leads to very bad decision making. Not to be trusted.

Why are you anti Google?

Exactly my thoughts as well.

My brother convinced me to try a 1Password family account, since it would be cheaper. Ever since, the Chrome plugin takes forever to login. Sometimes up to 5-6 seconds. And it really annoys me that they have so many resources and money, and it's still this expensive for a very very basic application, and slow to boot.

I tried out passwords, and combined with Safari, it's an absolute godsend compared to 1Password. That does mean that I switched from Brave to Safari, and thus have YouTube ads, and so I'm now paying for YouTube haha

It's never random. All is just a process of causes and conditions, albeit a very complex one. We just can't track all the variables.

This whole 'smart contracts' thing is stupid.

The issue is trust. Smart contracts as a solution are a sad attempt at solving that issue. There's always edge cases you can't code in.

E.g. in the example of the neighbour buying goods; What if the other neighbours don't really like this guy, and conspire against him?

The solution to trust, isn't codifying every possible variable and putting in on some silly unmodifiable chain. That solution just shifts the trust. Instead of trusting humans, we're now trusting some poorly written code...

The solution to the trust issue is good ethics, mindfulness and good upbringing. If someone violates your trust, it's probably due to some stress factor in that person's life. We need to create a better world for everyone and actually help the people that our violating our trust, and show them the way.