Qhemlomo

I'm following plenty of people, i never heard 2025

Sooo if youg ive a country cheap solar panels and they save money and make themselfs independent, how is that making them more dependent on China?

And how is that a bad thing in comparision to the current status quo?

Solar panels are not high tech. You can build them yourself as a state in worst case. You cant make oil if you don't have oil.

Yes true but they are still two legal entities.

My company has no problems doing business with Amazon but doesn't buy from Anthropic directly.

It also has no risk that the data goes into the wrong hands if a competitor would buy Anthropic or if Anthropic becomes worthless and someone else buys the data.

People can interpolate.

But lets be honest, I do not know, thats true.

I ahven't seen technology like this which affects me directly. But from past we know what disruptive technology looks and feels like. The weaving chair/loom disrupted an industry, energy, steam engine, internet.

Now we have the most generic technology an LLM/AI at a time were every major problem was solved:

We have the internet which allows for fast communication, we have very fast hardware, we have a supply chain which can react/act very fast globally and we have the richest companies on our planet investing into this technology unseen amounts of money. We have a local race between the richest companies on the world and a global race between the biggest world powers on our planet.

And we have the smartest people on our planet involved in this too. A lot of peple from academy went to the industry, some gave up their tenure for AI.

It would be very ignorant to assume that all of this can't lead to significant and fast change in our society.

It might not, but its like looking at a huge wildfire 50km away and just going to bed.

Fine for the initial phase were you have to define the architecture and guardrails etc.

But doesn't matter anymore if you just add things.

He states it in a way that its so unclear that companies would actually do this.

I see this problem already for me.

I have unlimited tokens at work than i go home what do i do? Spend 200$ per month? No def not.

When Anthropic increased the limits for their 20$ plan, i started again coding with it on a private project and it was fun and i did a lot in that 4 weeks.

" AGI has been 6 months away for years now."

No one said 2 years ago, that AGI is coming in 2026.

Amazon/AWS knows how to handle this conflict in a way that customers trust them enough.

Amazon has more to loose than Anthropic

Not sure if i follow you tbh.

I only told a commentor why a business would pay more to Amazon than going directly to Anthropic.

The announcement itself is def problematic and either leads to big companies accepting this and then going directly to anthropic or some talks in the background we don't know yet what it will entail.

Dark pattern, shitty behaviour.

Nothing to excuse

Creativity is personal taste and the taste which captures the most is mainstream.

I tell jokes and the group of friends get them, for family they don't get them anymore.

I do not like 'basic jokes' and despite that, german television is full of it.

Most things in our world are more of a challange of finding the answers and not 'creating' the answers.

Math: the answer is already there, you only need to find it an fast space of posibilities. This is perfect for LLMs.

Creativity: a LLM can iterate over things a lot faster than a person. So we can iterate over this space too. We can also get feedback from people, tiktok, instagram.

No thats just not true.

Plenty of people say that by 2030 we have AGI, others estimate 10-20 years.

I personally say 5-15 years.

AI 2027 estimates for 2027: "OpenBrain automatescoding"

Yeah thats not the point though.

We 'trust' Amazon already and Amazon has no incentive at all to collect the data to finetune claude because they don't own claude.

The best batteries are currently from CATL. No one in the industry is doubting this.

Huawei just showed LogicFolding and have a roadmap for 1.4 nanometer by 2031; SMIC is going for 5nm.

And all of this WITHOUT EUV.

I'm happy to have a discussion with you if you bring any argument.

Before GPT what would have been your choise of architecture, setup, alogorithm if someone comes to you and says "write a tool/system which can generate code" "what do you mean generate code? How do i control it?" "by writing what you want in natural language" "puh 50 years of development, 100 billion, top tier team of linguists and software engineers perhaps?"

Ask StackOverflow if they think it didn't change anything for them.

On one side, it means that a certain amount of business will just use it even if you think its not safe/good enough and they will throw out people and will still succeed.

And on the other side: yes because they will also use LLM review or other tooling and will be fine whatever the 'security llm agent' tells them.

Thats what the agentic layer will fix, but this is currently getting build.

Yeah my time scale is 'a handful of years' :)

You know what the problem is in software engineering? A LOT of people have no clue what good software engineering is.

I was working in a company before which used md5 in 2015! Databases on the internet with a 5 character password. No tests.

A person i know would have broken the whole production DB if i wouldn't have stoped the PR.

Another ex-collegue thought its okay to 'encrypt' with a basic shift cyper creditcard data.

I don't think any of these companies care that much

Btw. we haven't yet builed the whole Agentic AI layer which is coming and companies are working on.

A lot of people and companies working left and right building things which are obvious that they are coming.

We do not know yet how that impacts even more people.

And AI already removed certain jobs.

I'm happy to discuss arguments if you want to add any?

If AI takes over to slowly, we might play the boiling game aka we don't realize that the water gets warmer and warmer until we boil.

But lets be honest, i don't know that, you don't either. But if a critical mass is reached, faster, we might need to actually solve this problem instead of migrating to a very dystopian future.

Stoping is not an option i think. Anthropic vs. OpenAI vs. Google <<< they ahve so much money and so much to loose. And then we have USA vs. China.

My partner wrote an android app which was doing what she wanted to do. She did this experiment 5 month ago and she did this in one day.

My wife has 0 knowledge how any of this works.

That was shocking to see.

Progress is not stoping and Fable proves that.

And now it becomes so good, that you want to have it. Which means companies have to deal with the budget increase which they will recupe.

How? By making a 5 person team a 4 person team + AI.

If i think about my co-workers (not excluding myself) from last 15 years, there was always someone you would accept just because it was better than not having that one person. If i can now replace them with more tokens/better models, man i wouldn't hesitate (of course i know what this means on a person to person level :/)

It just got released, it shouldn't matter.

We know this model will be cheaper and faster with time.

And we have not even reached the timespan/timeframe were we have ASIC style models.

OpenAI has to do something which will beat Fable otherwise Anthropic won. China currently overtakes cars, pv, batteries and very soon silicon chip making, it has all the incentive to also take over AI.

How is this a gimmick?

It changes my whole profession on a level i couldn't even imagine how we would 'solve' software engineering.

I don't want to stop progress just because its hard to imagine how it will transform our society.

I want to see a Star Trek economy/society in my lifetime. I only life once.

Btw. AI/LLM/Machine learning is the gateway technology for robotics, this will affect even more.

They feared that GPT-2 could break all Spam filters.

And tbh do you prefer companies not taking anything serious?

Opus 4.5 def changed a lot already, GenAI changed a lot.

Certain jobs are gone. Do you think the person who was translating text doesn't deserve to be taken serious?

I haven't written code in a few month now and the quality of these coding agents is not getting worse, they are getting better.

All of this is transformable and we just started. GPT-3 came out in 2020 and public got access to it only 2022.

The last 4 years do not feal like 4 years and we are still progressing.

We have to also ask us as a society what is happening to young people. Even if we accept that we still hire juniors, they themselves have to completly rethink how they learn and how they work.

Big companies are not doing OpenRouter.

My company has an agreement with the big providers and while i'm pretty sure they think about how to get budget back, its an competitive advantage and normal people will not learn different model behaviours.

At least for now.