JeremyPOsborne

So true!

Yeah, really trying not to advertise. But add disclaimer. Thanks for letting me know it's a bit much. I tried to tone it down. Let me know if it's better or i should delete.

streamline labor: Aligning pay incentives with installers, ensure right parts and materials, make sure customer are not indecisive on the first day, mimic the 15% of installs that are side jobs as much as possible.

Virtual site visits aren't 100%. But allows us to get a price quickly, and check electrical capability. It's a bit of a test for customers, if they are interested in snapping 5 or so photos, they probably won't buy from us.

Half the time, we then go out for a site visit in-person but we're only visiting 50% of the customers. It's less expensive, however our conversion rates go down because we're not winning the customer with our personality, etc.

If we can verify directly from photos and go straight to contract, we send out a install manager to confirm after the signature. Basically, if some giant obstacle that will stops the install, we can cancel at no cost to the customer and we do that all very quickly so they can select another bid if that happens.

Solar is tough, I am a renewable energy engineer from Australia and yes, we can half the cost of solar as seen in Australia. I think Australian are simply less fussy and legally charged than governments and home owners in US and simple installs.

I now believe large central PV will likely be more successful here. 40% of electricity is often coming from solar and wind in CA and we can just keep doing that and we'll be fine.

Execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute, execute. It's working, keep going. Don't stop.

Make them easy to buy and install leading to lower costs, and more getting into homes.

Most don't have a payback if the cost of electricity is too high. Let's make them lower cost up front and lower running costs so it's a no brainer when replacement is due.

2-3 hours planning, parts list, client management,

4-6 hrs to run electrical,

2-4 hrs to mount condenser,

4-8 hrs for medium line set,

4-8 hrs air handler, duct, platform integration,

1-2 hrs with thermostat and condensate protection,

1-2 hours nitrogen testing and pull vacuum,

1 hr documenting photos for incentive programs,

1 hr spending time educating customer about the system.

Messing up a parts order and figuring out a solution 4 hrs too often.

Total: 28 hrs, or 2-3 days of 2 people depending on the travel from their shop to customers home. I agree. Let's get that down to 12-16 hrs or single day and the best shops and installers can do that.

CA Labor law allow about 6-7 hrs of work on site as installers often have to start at their shop.

$3-4k of labor cost for small-mid size. Best might be be 2-3K labor cost. Minor equipment 1-2K, permit and testing required $1K. Then 50% gross margin is the target, net costs $2.5K indirect labor, $2K sales cost, project management, trucks, insurance, software, 10-20% net margin.

Just added the details in a comment above. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45705876

Some are trying to cut HVAC install costs in half, and a lot of people are already working on it including Jetson (where the author works) and disclaimer my company Electric Air.

Average install is about $20K in California (varies by state). Here’s how that usually breaks down:

- Equipment: $3–5K for a basic swap (some go up to $10K for single system)

- Direct labor: $3–4K (about 15–20%)

- Materials: $2–3K

- Permits and testing: around $1K total

That leaves about a 45% margin to cover overhead:

- Indirect labor: $2.5K (installers when not installing, install managers, attending city inspector visits, call backs when installers make mistakes)

- Sales: $2K (around 10%)

- Project management: $500

- Trucks: $500

- Misc costs: $1.5K (insurance, software, payment processing, etc.)

Total overhead: $7K: Net margin: 10%

10% net margin at the end of the year isn't egregious.

That’s how a typical small-mid HVAC shop runs. The best HVAC shops can make these numbers be much more competitive. How do we make it better:

- Bulk order equipment

- Streamline direct labor

- Use virtual site visits instead of in-person sales calls

Do all that and you can bring a $20K install down close to half, while paying installers better and speeding up electrification.

:)

Ground source is often the only choice here. While air source can technically work well down to these temperatures, much of the available equipment doesn't suit some homes.

You are right! I was unfair. The customer was clear they wanted ManJ calcs.

It's not the customer's problem to reduce cost. The high cost is the customer's problem through even if they are not to blame. And given I have a first hand experience in the cost stack of HVAC company, I would happy to share how a HVAC contractor thinks.

Yep, the cost is in the trip is a big factor but sounds like it was their choice to try to sell you. You did the right thing by asking them do the calcs before they came out. Millions of questions are time consuming and costly but better than someone rushing into and pausing mid project with in-decision.

We (I'm cofounder of Electric Air, HVAC contract) have had people pause on day one of install, and that ends up costing the company $10-20K due to delays. Mostly because there isn't something for the team to do for that day or two while we scramble to line up the next customer.

Cool!

If we’re trying to bring down cost the this is the issue with so many contractors coming out. The cost of sales is about 10-15% of the installation in the US. So thats $2-3k in California per heat pump

Try to get an install for $600 like in Japan when you have to pay $2k to find the customer.

Let’s have a lower cost sales process. Review 12 companies online, pick top 3, ask them to come out.

We account for duct losses at Electric Air when sizing. It’s baked into industry standard Manual J sizing calculators and other methods. ManJ isn’t perfect find for this purpose.

In this case, contractor should have advised the heat pump would not keep up and recommended a different solution.

You're right; 80% of US homes are single-family with forced air and ducts. Most heat pumps are swap-in replacements for these systems. One central air handler is connected to ductwork and vents to distribute the heat and cooling—one outdoor unit, with refrigerant lines connecting the indoor and outdoor units.

Europe has more hydronic/radiator mono-block heat pumps, with no refrigerant work needed in the field, which makes them easier to retrofit, assuming all the other plumbing is in place. Refrigerant work requires more training due to the high pressure and the potential for the high-GWP refrigerant.

Hey, agree that would be awesome. It's super specific, so probably the easiest way is to request a quote from us, and you'll get a list specific for your address. Go here https://www.heliosclimate.io/get-a-quote

We call a specific incentive API, automatically generate the net cost estimate, and send it to you. No issue for our software, pls add a note that you just want incentive info, and I'll know to remove you from our hounding salespeople (ME )

We're working on our live instant quote tool, but it's not ready yet.

... we love Alameda and have done a few projects there now.

Thank you Ghufran! It was great working with you. -- Jeremy from Helios

spaceguillotine I'd love to hear about your experience as a former installer! Any chance for a DM?

Jeremy here from that Boundary Layer Technologies. That company building hydrofoil cargo ships. Hydrofoils are not new and have been working for half a century in harsh weather conditions. Please look up the Pegasus class ships from the US navy. Technology has changed in the last 50 years which means we can greatly improve efficiency and practicality of foiling ships especially in the world of airfreight.

Foiling vessels can be built to handle any weather condition of a buoyancy based ship. And because we're at sea for no more than 6 days we have a much greater weather prediction to avoid storm swells compared to a tradition ship who might be at see for more than 30 days and cannot go around the storm.

For 99% of the time, the ocean is pretty flat so we can still have 99% on time delivery.

LOL, I appreciate your words about vagueness. We have not been specific about how we will achieve our goals, but watch out of the coming months for a lot more details. I do love a good hater, it's a promising sign.

Jeremy from BLT. I just saw this post, cool!

You are right on that we're developing small cargo ships at about 1% of the largest containers ships. However, a comparison to the largest container vessel is not fair. Our concept has 160 twenty-foot containers (TEU), which is the same as fourteen 747 cargo airplanes and can complete on freight duration with airfreight. Most air freight takes 3-7 days despite a 12 hours in-air transit time, and the remaining time is sitting around airports. We can deliver in 6 days across the pacific ocean, and port wait times are minimal because of our small vessel. Though, if you pay 10x the premium, you can get FedEx or DHL to deliver up to a 1 ton anywhere overnight. Airfreight moves 35% of the world's cargo value and is a $100b market, and a single airplane is only 0.06% capacity of the largest container ship. Hardly niche.

If the hydrofoils ships are too large, they will spend too much time filling the vessel rather than delivering point-to-point cargo, improving the service. Most ocean lines make 4-6 stops at ports, while a small foil ship can load quickly and make no stops, thus significantly reducing the door to door duration.

Correctly pointed out, hydrofoils do not follow the same scale laws as standard buoyancy vessel. The amount of cargo that can be delivered increases with the cube of the length assuming all else scales, meaning the fuel and crew cost per container decreases drastically with larger ships. That's why we see mega-20,000 TEU-container-ships. Hydrofoil ship lift capability scales linearly with plan area of the foil, so we don't gain much making them mega-ships.

Airships are cool. I'd like to see one built.