How to spot whodunnit: academics crack Agatha Christie's code

http://www.theguardian.com/books/2015/aug/02/academics-unlock-formula-agatha-christies-mysteries

by ingve • 11 years ago

22 5 11 years ago

jawns• 11 years ago

Now this is a mysterious affair!

The article notes that M=27 books were analyzed to create the "whodunnit" formula, but N=83 books were published in her lifetime. So, does the formula work for N, or only M?

If we employ our little gray cells, it should be possible for us to determine just how accurate the formula is by running it against the novels that weren't analyzed.

If I had to put my cards on the table, I'd guess that the formula is overfitted.

jcl• 11 years ago

For one, theta is parametrized on {Poirot, Marple}. According to the list on Wikipedia, only about 45 of her novels featured those two detectives.

drxzcl• 11 years ago

It's not a "formula", it's entertainment. There is no attempt to quantify any of the variables, or even aim for basic dimensional consistency. It's, to use a technical term, horse shit.

naturalethic• 11 years ago

I like you very much.

dmeeze• 11 years ago

Or, to put it another way: no.

http://www.badscience.net/2006/12/mediaslut-ideas-money-corp...

How to spot whodunnit: academics crack Agatha Christie's code

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