How to see into the future

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/3950604a-33bc-11e4-ba62-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3ClFR6nj1

by webnrrd2k • 12 years ago

1 1 12 years ago

webnrrd2k• 12 years ago

This isn't a new topic -- prediction markets have been poster here before. However, this article also discusses some important issues about how people fail to see into the future. For example, pundits often use their prediction as a method to present their world view in a way that would "otherwise be impossible to explain."

Here is a good quote from the article: "This is because our predictions are about the future only in the most superficial way. They are really advertisements, conversation pieces, declarations of tribal loyalty – or, as with Irving Fisher, statements of profound conviction about the logical structure of the world. As Roger Babson explained, not without sympathy, Fisher had failed because “he thinks the world is ruled by figures instead of feelings, or by theories instead of styles”.

This emotional/social aspect is fascinating as it goes against my programmer-engineer mindset, and it explains a lot about the world. I'd love to hear what HN has to say about the non-prediction market aspect of this article.

How to see into the future

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