Crimea, the Tinderbox

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/03/opinion/crimea-the-tinderbox.html?hp&rref=opinion&_r=0

by ytNumbers • 12 years ago

34 16 12 years ago

ytNumbers• 12 years ago

World War One began a hundred years ago, and today it feels like Europe hasn't progressed at all in those hundred years. Sadly, the Marx Brothers "Duck Soup" remains as relevant as ever.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duck_Soup_(1933_film)

lclarkmichalek• 12 years ago

You think Europe hasn't progressed? Tell me how many shots Russian and Ukranian troops have fired at each other (at the time of me writing this comment).

Alternatively, how many shots have soldiers from the UK, France, Spain, Belgium, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Sweden, and Norway fired at each other in the past 60 years? Sure, there's more the Europe than the west, but we're doing pretty well when it comes to peace in that area.

Or, on a more practical note, how many millions of dollars of value has been added to the economies of European states due to agreements such as the EFTA, CEFTA, and the EU Customs Union? How many trade disputes have been resolved?

antr3• 12 years ago

I agree. Freedom of movement and capital has been a giant leap, and something no other region in the world has achieved. In the mean time if you travel within the US don't be surprised if you are stopped at a random DHS checkpoint.

spindritf2• 12 years ago

Sixty years before the WWI was also an unprecedented time of peace. I'm not saying that we're looking at anything similar here but people used to believe that trade and wealth it generates are so great that Europeans would never go to war. And then they did.

Another argument missing the point is that Russia currently is in no state for any large organized military operation. It's true. But it was also true after the WWI, in 1920, and it didn't stop them from trying[1].

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish%E2%80%93Soviet_War_in_1...

skywhopper2• 12 years ago

Europe as a whole has made a lot of progress since WWI. Russia not so much.

spindritf2• 12 years ago

Crimea is routinely described as “pro-Russian,” given that an estimated 58 percent of the population of two million is ethnic Russian, with another 24 percent Ukrainian and 12 percent Crimean Tatar.

Because Stalin deported, murdered or otherwise replaced people who used to live there.[1] Genocide works.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deportation_of_the_Crimean_Tat...

tty• 12 years ago

Because

No. Russians had already become by far the largest ethnic group in Crimea before any deportation had taken place.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimea#Demographics

The deportation happened in 1944, the 1939 census shows Russians at 49,6%. Crimean Tatars were down to 19,4%.

That still doesn't excuse Russian intervention the last few days, though.

Genocide works.

Genocide and deportations or ethnic cleansing are distinct things. Deporting hundreds of thousands of people is already bad enough, no need to use terms that don't apply to it.

huhtenberg• 12 years ago

It's not only that Crimea is massively pro-Russian, it's the fact that it was a part of Russian Federation (a part of Soviet Union back then) before it was "gifted" to Ukraine by Khrushchev in 1954. It was more of a formality back then, but it doesn't change the fact that a lot of its population still consider Crimea a part of Russia.

lingben2• 12 years ago

After they deported the original ethnic group, the Crimean Tatars

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deportation_of_the_Crimean_Tat...

dreen• 12 years ago

I'm surprised this situation hasn't materialised earlier. With all the "forced migrations" happening during and after WWII both to and from the area of todays Ukraine, the country became a tinderbox a long long time ago. Most of that is the result of Churchill and Roosevelt giving up on that part of Europe during Yalta, for the benefit of Stalin.

lingben2• 12 years ago

I just watched two BBC programs about the Great War (WWI) [1] and the similarities between that episode in history and this one are chilling.

Don't get me wrong, I don't think we will have WWIII but the way the pieces are moving on the set (at least so far) is eerily familiar.

[1] http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/tvandradio/tv-and-radio-r...

EDIT: in case people as for details, the most obvious is the treaty that Belgium and UK had entered into which became the casus belli for the UK once Germany invaded Belgium.

Today there's the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances [2] between Russia, the USA, and the UK and Ukraine of course.

[2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security...

Crimea, the Tinderbox

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