Bitcoin Target Price: $23,809.52

by mikekij • 13 years ago

8 5 13 years ago

The story doesn't render as readable on mobile- just a pic that doesn't scroll. Could someone paste it in comments maybe?

vinchuco2• 13 years ago

His model:

A = World's GDP = 50$ Trillion USD

B = % of world transactions reached with BTC = 1 % BTC/USD

C = Total BTC = 21 Million BTC

A*B/C = 23,809 $

D = Chance of this happening = 10%

"So a BTC price of roughly $2,400 wouldn’t be a crazy price today."

vinchuco2• 13 years ago

It reminded me of one of the mistakes Guy Kawasaki said here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HHjgK6p4nrw about linear thinking in valuations.

Not that I disagree with the post. I could only verify those figures in the future.

coryl• 13 years ago

Isn't his math incorrect at the 10% value?

He solves for $2,3809.52, shouldn't it be $238,095.20?

crystaln• 13 years ago

Indeed he's not an economist (not am I). GDP is not highly correlated to money supply, and the value of bitcoin will largely depend on how it is implemented in that 1% of transaction. If bitcoin is used as a transactional currency, there is much less value than if it is used as a value store.

Bitcoin Target Price: $23,809.52

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