Tomorrow Market offering infinite private beta spots for HN users

http://www.tomorrowmarket.com/user/register?special=hackernews

by zc • 17 years ago

5 29 17 years ago

tomorrowmarket.com

dc2k083• 17 years ago

Can I ask what it is?

sosuke• 17 years ago

What is Tomorrow Market? I couldn't find info on the site, I admittedly only looked for a minute.

zc10• 17 years ago

It's a social prediction market. Sorry, none of the content is available until you sign up. I want to keep it mostly private until it launches officially.

lsb• 17 years ago

You've just launched it on Hacker News. Why submit something deliberately concealed?

csbartus2• 17 years ago

WARNING:

Don't give your real username and password! I've tried with a fake password and works!

zc10• 17 years ago

If you're serious, email me details at tomorrow@tomorrowmarket.com. Passwords are encrypted, by the way.

Update: people are confused because the sign up page looks like a log in page because it is so short. You can not log in to Tomorrow Market with any password.

TallGuyShort3• 17 years ago

You're aware that it wasn't asking for your HN credentials, right?

zc10• 17 years ago

Tomorrow Market is a social prediction market. Hacker News members get to skip the email verification. Let me know what you think.

TallGuyShort3• 17 years ago

>> We strongly believe that predicting should be a social activity.

Can you explain more about what the purpose is? I can see why predicting certain things can be important, but after reviewing the "tour" and the issues being discussed, it seems like a game of chance to me. What are the benefits to being involved in a community like this?

khafra• 17 years ago

Prediction markets* aren't games of chance; they're an economist's tool, an alternative to polls, or an embarassment to prognosticators. Not that they're perfect+.

Even less perfect when I can't find a list or search-box to select among the "symbols" to sell and purchase. Also, the "social" part is difficult when I can't find a place to "discuss" on each contract.

*http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_Market +http://www.slate.com/id/2189135/pagenum/all

DTrejo• 17 years ago

A related question:

Is the social aspect of this market the difference between it and competitors like http://ppx.popsci.com/ ?

zc10• 17 years ago

In my mind, there are two main purposes: 1. You can make your prediction public and gain social status for being the most clairvoyant or the best trader, and 2. When the markets stabilize, the prices will give an indication of the likelihood of certain events. The game of making predictions involves chance and skill, and I think there is enough skill to make this game more interesting than Yahtzee.

radu_floricica2• 17 years ago

For the community it's a game (with either real or fake money), but the predictions tend to be surprisingly accurate, given a few conditions are met.

It can also be used by large organisations in the decision making process (which is how I presume this could be funded), but I haven't heard of this actually happening in the wild.

More info: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds

edit, better link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market

synnik• 17 years ago

Just curious -- how exactly do you know that any given signup is a HN member?

TallGuyShort3• 17 years ago

The variable 'special' is set through the URL - my guess is that's it.

radu_floricica2• 17 years ago

It's interesting both in concept and execution, but isn't it a bit empty? It's usually a good idea to populate something like this beforehand, even if it's with fake/random accounts.

Also the bidding interface might use some contextual help. Everything is probably explained if I read the docs, but if I just want to jump in it's a bit difficult. For example the difference between Market and Local.

jacktasia2• 17 years ago

Isn't this the same thing as Inkling: http://home.inklingmarkets.com/

...or am I missing something?

zc10• 17 years ago

It's similar, but not the exact same thing. It's supposed to be more social than products like Inkling and InTrade.

jacktasia2• 17 years ago

Fair enough. This may be something you want to put on your "About" page.

thexa4• 17 years ago

It is a good idea, although I wouldn't use real money for something like this. I agree with radu_floricica that it is difficult to understand how the bidding works on first glance. I'd try to add more information on the pages, not only in the faq and tour.

zc10• 17 years ago

Thanks for the comment. I will definitely be adding more information and making the bidding process more "instantly intuitive."

pedalpete• 17 years ago

Well, once in on the site, it is really very bland looking. It isn't difficult to read, but there isn't an effective call to action either. This could be because i have no idea what I would use it for.

If i were you, i'd make it more like a news game. Not sure how you would accomplish this, but that could give it a more realistic spin and attract a diverse group.

Most of the stuff I'm seeing on the site falls strongly into the 'who cares' column. Maybe you should take a few current news topics and have those as headlines and get users involved with something everybody is familiar with.

As it currently stands, i'd spend a lot more time on design and marketing (figuring out how you are going to get people to use it/spread it).

I don't find it usable/workable as it is, and I feel your opportunity for success with the current version is very limited.

I wouldn't go into any sort of public beta with this. I actually feel it is too early for you to be doing private beta, but I know it can be difficult to get honest feedback from aquiaintences.

Don't read what I'm saying as 'this can't be successful'. Your idea has merit, you could make something of this, but you have to have a better product than you currently have, even in closed beta.

dc2k083• 17 years ago

Can two members make the same prediction?

zc10• 17 years ago

Two members can make the same trade, so yes.

dc2k083• 17 years ago

a trade is the same as a contract? If it is, won't more than one of the same contract devalue the shares in those contracts?

BTW, there is a typo on the FAQ page 'How much many do I start with?'

Tomorrow Market offering infinite private beta spots for HN users

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