Hitting China’s Wall

http://www.readability.com/articles/aicxdbek

by markcmyers • 13 years ago

30 11 13 years ago

ddeck• 13 years ago

Investment is now running into sharply diminishing returns

This can be seen quite clearly in the rising ICOR [1] numbers. The stimulus lead investment since the crisis has been substantially less productive, at least in the short term [2]. Infrastructure and real-estate investment is doing much less for future GDP growth than prior investments in capital equipment for manufacturing, exports etc.

The bigger concern in the financing of this investment binge. IMO there is a very real risk of substantial civil unrest in China when the massive credit bubble comes apart.

The FT put out a much more extensive treatment of these issues a couple of days ago:

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/07/17/1554582/when-does-a-ch...

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incremental_Capital-Output_Rati...

[2] http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303...

SideburnsOfDoom• 13 years ago

Interesting. Japan is mentioned, and they most have passed through the same point some time in living memory. South Korea too. How did they cope?

ansible• 13 years ago

This is just speculation...

With Japan, they had seriously begun the process of industrialization in the 1800's with the Meiji Period [1]. So even though their economy and infrastructure was gravely damaged during WW2, they could rebuild quickly.

With South Korea, I don't know. It was a much smaller country. Being a close ally of the USA may have helped with foreign investment which allowed them to climb up the value curve very quickly. I found this on post-WW2 South Korean economic development [2], but haven't gone through the whole thing yet.

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meiji_period

[2] http://www.nber.org/chapters/c4063.pdf

brianbreslin• 13 years ago

Funny I hit a paywall when I clicked through this link...

PhasmaFelis• 13 years ago

The link says "readability.com", but it immediately forwards to the New York Times and a paywall.

alex_marchant• 13 years ago

Google "Hitting China's Wall" and follow the link to get around the paywall.

shadowmint2• 13 years ago

Wow, I'm as much a skeptic of China's economic model as anyone can be, but this article is just saying words with 1) nothing to back them up, and 2) an overt 'no, america isn't anything like this! don't be silly!'.

I mean:

    (Since someone is going to raise this issue: no, this 
    bears very little resemblance to the Federal Reserve’s 
    policies here.

Really? When an article is written as 'factual' in a 'factual' tone, but contains stupid little personal interjections in it like this, I get :'( face about the fall of journalistic standards.

Needs 'opinion piece, may not reflect reality' at the top.

caseydurfee• 13 years ago

It says "New York Times: The Opinion Pages" at the top.

The headline of the article is "OP-ED COLUMNIST/Hitting China’s Wall."

At the bottom of the article it says "A version of this op-ed appeared in print on July 19, 2013"

fivethree• 13 years ago

The backing data is Krugman being a nobel prize winning economist whose been incredibly accurate for the last decade and a half. I'm sure you know more than him though shadowmint.

shadowmint2• 13 years ago

Being famous does not excuse lacking citations.

dferlemann• 13 years ago

It talks about the lack of spending power of consumer because of low wages, and gains all flood into elite class and national enterprises. My observation is that it's seemed almost like "directed" or "forced" consumption to stimulate economy - a consumption without average consumers, or people really have very little role to it. Prove is that the real-estate expansion bubble, empty buildings and cities. It's like a hack of economy for super growth with very little risk. I think it's a complete violation of nature, but effects can vary... my prediction of one significant effect is that there will be very little innovation come out from China for next 20 years. I think they've thought of it, and don't care as it is not a primary concern for them at this point in time. And I don't think this hack is as good as it is thought to be, the risk has been reduced in the short-term, but it's somewhat cumulative, and it's going to be very dangerous in long-term.

Back to topic of this article... I can see the wall, but it's so huge that distance cannot be determined. Maybe when China about to hit, they might come up with something. After all, control is their weapon, and it can be extremely effective.

Hitting China’s Wall

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