Predicting the Next Twitter

http://www.telecoms.com/10511/predicting-the-next-twitter

by mattyb • 17 years ago

1 1 17 years ago

mburnett• 17 years ago

An interesting viewpoint on what it takes to "predict" such influential events (including the adoption of a particular product/service) is the black swan theory. Nassim Nicholas Taleb seems to be very closely associated with it.

Basically, Taleb says the event must be:

1. Quite difficult to predict

2. Have an significant impact

3. Be able to be explained rationally, after the fact

Examples include September 11th attacks, the personal computer, Google and others.

-----------------

Read more about at your desired level of interest:

wiki: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory

video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BDbuJtAiABA

pdf: http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/ARTE.pdf

book: http://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Impact-Highly-Improbable/dp...

-----------------

Note: I found the writing style of the author to be a little quirky. You may want to read a sample chapter at local bookstore before going all in.

Predicting the Next Twitter

Related Stories