Don't shoot for the moon: aiming for above average is key to success

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2026/may/29/dont-shoot-for-the-moon-aiming-for-above-average-is-key-to-success-maths-suggests

by oatlgr • 2 months ago

10 4 2 months ago

theguardian.com

ian_holt• 2 months ago

Call me stupid maybe, but when I was studying, whether school, college or whatever I always aimed for 100% in my results as I knew I would not get 100% and I knew if I aimed for 80-90%, then I would get that either. And I have always taught my own kids the same. Shoot for the stars and you might get somewhere near them...

goodmythical• 2 months ago

You are agreeing with the article.

"found that optimal satisfaction came from setting the bar above average, but not excessively so. When agents were overambitious, meaning their threshold was far above the mean reward, they fared worse on average than agents that were underambitious by the same margin. In short, being too hard to please was worse than being too easy to please."

The argument is that maximal output is not attained through permanent maximal effort. Maximal output is achieved via the correct level of effort. (less than maximum effort).

Take sports: If you're so ambitious that you refuse to take rest days, and even so ambitious that you refuse to rest between sets, you're doing it wrong. You're more likely to reach your goal by resting and going slower.

The same is true in academics. If you are so ambitious in your goals that you take a course load beyond what you are actually capable of handling, your grades will suffer. You're more likely to get A's if you take fewer credits. Sure, you might be able to handle an 18 credit semester, but for someone who needs the extra study time, taking 6 courses instead of 5 will ultimately lower their scores.

jerlam• 2 months ago

School is a bit unique in that students are not competing with only their classmates, but for college admissions they are competing with virtually everyone else graduating that year. So students have no idea what the average will be. You can be the best graduating student of your class and still get rejected from colleges, because there are other students who are coming from other high schools with a better academic reputation, have better extra-curricular activities, or have better connections.

mattgburgess• 2 months ago

Hi, one of the study authors here. Our analysis is not about effort; it's about which opportunities you stick with or pass up in search of better ones, in the context of searching. If "shoot for the moon" means don't take any opportunities short of the 100% best thing ever, then our model says you might be disappointed. For example, the 7 who will only date 10s is likely to be lonely. Same with the B student who only applies to top-5 schools, etc. Same with the job seeker who passes up good opportunities ever searching for one-in-a-thousand great ones. Our study says nothing about how hard you should or shouldn't work. (Hard work is good IMO.)

Don't shoot for the moon: aiming for above average is key to success

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