Researchers find Megaupload shutdown hurt box office revenues

http://thenextweb.com/insider/2012/11/24/researchers-find-megaupload-shutdown-had-a-negative-effect-on-box-office-revenues/

by derpenxyne • 14 years ago

90 40 14 years ago

thenextweb.com

Empro• 14 years ago

The story's title is different, but I guess it doesn't fit on HN?

paulgb• 14 years ago

Direct link to paper: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID2176246_code...

Someone more statistical than I can correct me on this, but by using on average 21 observations per movie (presumably for different weeks), aren't they creating dependence between observations which will artificially increase the p-values and r-squared?

1337biz2• 14 years ago

Am I understanding this right, that this papers hasn't even been peer-reviewed and are just 3 pages uploaded by the authors to ssrn?

iamben• 14 years ago

Haven't read the paper, but just based on the article I'd be curious to see the affect on blockbusters compared to say, their rotten tomatoes scores (or whatever). It'd be interesting to see whether the opposite of the reasoning applied for the smaller movies people may not have heard of ("I saw xxxxx, it was great you should see it") applies to the blockbusters with a lot of publicity and promotion behind them ("Yeah, I downloaded xxxxx, it was dreadful..").

darrencauthon2• 14 years ago

If this was true (and I'm dubious of the "find"), it should be something for movie makers to consider when it comes to distributing their movies.

What this shouldn't be used for, though, is the default excuse by pirates when stealing intellectual property. "My theft actually helps, see?!?!?" Even if there is some financial gain, more is lost when the fundamental IP rights are stolen.

pbhjpbhj3• 14 years ago

>Even if there is some financial gain, more is lost when the fundamental IP rights are stolen. //

Apart from your failure to demonstrate an understanding of the difference between unlicensed duplication and denial through theft this bit still doesn't quite make sense to me.

Are you saying that the IPR are worth more than their direct fiscal benefit and that this benefit is some how reduced even if more money is made by the rights holders?

Could you expand on your reasoning?

If the findings are correct then for some tortuous infringer's then yes it would seem the most likely causality is that their unlicensed use of the material is of benefit [in promulgating the cultural worth¹ and] in bringing more financial benefit to the industry. If.

- - -

¹ but who cares about that!

darrencauthon2• 14 years ago

Sure, I'll expand on my reasoning, but only since you ask. :) I don't and won't debate IP here, but I'll try to give more details behind that short post.

Intellectual property rights, themselves, are more important than the monetary gain. The right to own the product of your work is incredibly important to the creator's life. If you make something, whether it be a wood carving, a sandwich, or even a computer program or piece of music, that thing is yours. To take that something from someone without consent is theft.

When it comes to intellectual property, the only way to control the thing is to control its distribution. If the creator has no ability to set the terms by which the book, song, software program, etc. can be used, then there's no such thing as ownership of the created work.

I think that's a worse loss than any temporary financial gain that could be had by the loss of IP rights, as those IP rights are everything to the creator. If a creator doesn't own what he creates, and he can't trade his creation on his own terms, how can he succeed in life? Where's that pride of knowing that what you made is YOURS and you can control it?

Imagine a situation where an accomplished, proud artist spends years painting what he considers his life's masterpiece. Then the next evening, a thief runs off with painting, but leaves a stack of $100 million in cash with a note that says "SOLD!". Was the artist justly compensated? Would there be articles written about how art theft could leave artists with more money than on the market?

klibertp• 14 years ago

I refuse to acknowledge the word "steal" as appropriate here. "Intellectual property" stealing was known for ages and described the process of depriving someone of attribution of his work. I can steal a poem if I recite it as my own. This is stealing, theft, and was recognized as such since really long ago.

OTOH, if I print, or make a handwritten copy of this same poem, preserving the name of the author, I'm not stealing. It may be debatable what I actually did, but I did not steal.

Every time I see well defined concept being reused to mean something different than it meant for hundreds of years I'm cautious. I think everyone should be.

gurkendoktor• 14 years ago

"Stealing" still not be the proper term, but the grandparent posting was not talking about stealing IP, but about stealing fundamental IP rights.

johnchristopher• 14 years ago

If one prints copy of "this same poem" and sells it or distribute if for free (and there is no free lunch) then one stole the printing rights that the author granted (for a sum of money or a regular paycheck) to the official printer (the one who has a contract with the author). Regarding books, ideas are more or less free, the materialization of that work of thought into our physical realm (be it dead pieces of cellulose or bits on magnetic support), however, is not.

Kant wrote a bit about it.

runn1ng3• 14 years ago

I am too lazy ... ummm busy to read the paper right now, but well, is it really causation, or some very, very weak correlation?

jbri• 14 years ago

For massive blockbusters they do find a negative effect, the positive impact is mainly for lesser-publicized movies without the massive advertising budget funneled into them.

It's always hard to tell with statistics, but I don't think it's a stretch to suggest that the extra publicity from file sharing outweighs the negative effects for those smaller movies.

aptwebapps• 14 years ago

I imagine that most of the people who would want to see a blockbuster will know about it due to the overwhelming marketing. At the other end of the marketing budget spectrum the movies probably rely on word of mouth which would probably get a boost from file-sharing.

1337biz2• 14 years ago

Even so I want to believe the story, it smells a lot like the typical correlation = causation story. These things are so easy to construct, i.e. the pirates & global warming correlation [1].

There could be a lot of other factors that were leading to this development, e.g. studios concentrating more on pushing blockbuster movies, generally a weak indie/strong blockbuster movie season, etc.

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flying_Spaghetti_Monster#Pirate...

brackin2• 14 years ago

Why don't film makers put the first 10 minutes of a film on Bittorrent a week or month before release? This could offer many of the advantages and still allows them to earn direct revenue. I know some have tried similar models and other studies have shown leaks help the success of a film.

runn1ng3• 14 years ago

Well, they already make trailers and put them to every videosharing site possible.

If you add all footage from the trailers, it can be about 10 minutes, maybe more.

pbhjpbhj3• 14 years ago

Movie trailers are awful now. They generally show you all the important points of the movie and all the best SFX. Sometimes the movie is worse than the trailer. First 10 minutes sounds great - you'd know if you want to see more or not from that but it wouldn't [in most cases] give the whole plot away.

pedalpete• 14 years ago

I suspect the first 10 minutes could give people a dis-insentive to watch many movies. Once you've paid and you're there, they've already got your money. I would scan lots of 10 minutes, and decide movies I wouldn't pay to watch.

Note, I don't go to movies because I normally leave disappointed.

tnuc• 14 years ago

Studios would much rather a terrible cam copy gets on the internet, so people get pissed off and go to the cinema.

It has been proven that once people have an inferior version of something they are more willing to pay full price for a good version.

aw3c2• 14 years ago

link to said proof please.

driverdan• 14 years ago

I really wish HN had a rule against blogspam like this. How about the original post: http://torrentfreak.com/megaupload-shutdown-hurt-box-office-...

Or maybe the paper itself? http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2176246

Researchers find Megaupload shutdown hurt box office revenues

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