On thinking probabilistically [pdf]

http://www.atm.damtp.cam.ac.uk/mcintyre/mcintyre-thinking-probabilistically.pdf

by hdivider • 14 years ago

10 1 14 years ago

atm.damtp.cam.ac.uk

aduric• 14 years ago

While I generally tend to stand with McIntyre on the Bayesian vs frequentist debate (whether it is much of a debate anymore given recent advances in AI due to Bayesian techniques for ML is another discussion) I feel that he doesn't adequately explain our 'wrong' intuition on the Monty Hall problem. While he goes on a tirade against the frequentist hold on our education system as being responsible for our mistaken intuition in this regard, he doesn't explain the fact that largely all of us are duped by this problem (having taking courses at school taught by evil frequentists or not). If indeed Bayesian probability theory is innate in us and we have just been brainwashed in school, it would seem to me then that those of us not taught frequentist statistics would be able to solve the problem better than the rest of us. I think this would be an easy experiment to conduct but I have not seen any experiments done to confirm this though.

On thinking probabilistically [pdf]

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